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HomeMy WebLinkAboutord2004-013IATCOM COUNTY COUNCIL AGENDA BILL diner to the (1) Proposed ordinance reflecting the Planning which includes population projections. NO. V E kPla,n ing 4 mittee SEP 02 2003 WHATCOM COUNTY � COUNCIL b N 2003- 075A _ Commission's recommendations Co endmions (l) Planning Commission Findings of Fail &Reasons for Action, Conclusions, and Reeommendatimts (31 Planning Commission minutes zt NO Note: Rack round materials are available or review at the Coun Council Should Clerk schedules hearing? ( Yes ( ) NO SEPA review required'? ( s) Yes ( ) NO Requested Date: I bearing ma, be heldiit, Cuunall changes the Planning Commission sEPA review completed' ( x )Yes ( ) rerommmidarlon 6VCC 2o.lo.11o. ntoribution Request SUMMARY STATEMENT: Amending Chapter r tuuro....�•• - Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan. This eheptaec s prof coons County will utilize the low, medium or high 20 -y population for growth management planning. It also provides background information relating c and eeonom cmprehensive plan, demographics, land use, water the of Whatcom County Note: The subject proposal is one of a number of comprehensive plan considered amendments e concurrently initiated y he County Council So that the cumulative effect of the various proposals can be evaluated (RCW 36.70A.0 20 Additionally, pursuant to the review schedule established in WCC 2or 10. about 20, final Council action on these amendments should occur on or about November 30. 2003 -75A 91912003'. Introduced 9123)03 Held in Planning and Development committee 10)7)2003 Held in Planning and Development Committee 12)9)2003 Hearing Schad I for January 27, 2004 1)1312004 -. Forrvarded to Concurui meeting 6 -1, Brenner opposed 319)2004 Adopted 5 -1, Crawford opposed, Nelson absent Cod #2004-013 fa opy rearCrIoncilacinom (ndfeute those n�ho should receives c List gameia names to the right. Ordinance or (this item): Related File Numbers: A82003 -075 meIULV omp Plan 2003VCMP2003 -00002 (Chapter I - Population) - AB doe 12 Planning DIN maeComp Plan Amend 8 -10 -03 SPONSORED BY: Consent PROPOSED BY: Planning INTRODUCTION DATE: 9/9/03 ORDINANCE # 2004 -013 AMENDING CHAPTER 1 OF THE WHATCOM COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN INCLUDING POPULATION PROJECTIONS WHEREAS, The Growth Management Act requires counties and cities to review and, if needed, revise comprehensive plans to ensure continued compliance with the GMA (RCW 36.70A.130); and WHEREAS, Legal notice was published in the Bellingham Herald; and WHEREAS, The Planning Commission held public hearings on the proposal; and WHEREAS, The Planning Commission has evaluated the proposed amendments and made certain modifications; WHEREAS, The County Council has considered the Planning Commission's Findings of Fact & Reasons for Action, Conclusions, and Recommendations. The Council makes the following findings of fact and conclusions: FINDINGS OF FACT 1. Notice of the Planning Commission hearings for the subject amendment was published in the Bellingham Herald on March 13, 2003 and April 27, 2003. 2. The Planning Commission held public hearings and/or work sessions on the subject amendments on March 27, April 24, May 8, May 22, and June 12, 2003. 3. A determination of non - significance (DNS) was issued under the State Environmental Policy Act (SEPA) on August 18, 2003. 4. The Growth Management Act (GMA) states that comprehensive plans must contain population projections (RCW 36.70A.070(1)). 5. The GMA requires that the County's population projection must be consistent with the state Office of Financial Management Projections (RCW 36.70A.110(2)). RI 6. County -Wide Planning Policy C3a indicates "The most current, accurate population projections based on a range provided for Whatcom County by the Office of Financial Management shall be used as the basis for determining that Urban Growth Areas shall include sufficient area to permit the urban growth that is projected to occur in the county for the succeeding twenty -year period." 7. The GMA requires coordination and consistency between city and County comprehensive Plans (RCW 36.70A.100). 8. County -Wide Planning Policy M -1 states: "To adequately plan for growth and implement the policies of the Growth Management Act, the governmental jurisdictions in Whatcom County, including the Lummi Nation and Nooksack Tribe, and the Port of Bellingham shall establish on -going mechanisms to improve communication, information sharing and coordinated approaches to common problems." 9. ECONorthwest, the consultants hired by the County and cities to project population, presented a total Whatcom County population of 231,928 as their "baseline forecast" for 2022 ( Whatcom County Population and Economic Forecasts, ECONorthwest, May 2002, p. 2 -12). The ECONorthwest report indicates that " ... We expect Whatcom County to grow from an estimated 173,000 residents in 2002 to 232,000 in 2022 .. " (p. 2 -9). ECONorthwest also provides high and low growth scenarios that could occur depending upon state growth rates, land supply, water availability, and business development (pp. 2- 10 through 2 -12). 10. State law requires the State Office of Financial Management (OFM) to prepare 20 -year population projections for counties in Washington State, and indicates that OFM's medium projection shall represent their estimate of the most likely population projection for the county (RCW 43.62.035). OFM's medium projection for Whatcom County is 236,837 in the year 2022. It. The cities and County have coordinated through the Growth Management Oversight Committee. In August of 2002, the Growth Management Oversight Committee, consisting of the County's Planning Division Manager and city planners, recommended using ECONorthwest's high population projection (with several variations in allocation of population to different areas of Whatcom County). 12. ECONorthwest's medium population projection is within the range of projections provided by the State Office of Financial Management. 13. In order to accommodate an aging population that may want to seek low - maintenance housing with easy access to shops, services, and medical care, to encourage high densities in cities, and to preserve rural character, medium to high growth should be projected in urban growth areas and low growth should be projected for rural areas, so that overall County population growth is in accordance with the medium population projection. P. 2 CONCLUSIONS The subject amendment is consistent with Growth Management Act, County Wide Planning Policies, and Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan. 2. The subject amendment is based upon further study and evaluation of the projected population growth in Whatcom County. Therefore, the proposed amendment is consistent with the RCW 36.70.410, which requires that Comprehensive Plan amendments must be based upon further study or changed conditions. The subject amendment complies with the approval criteria for comprehensive plan amendments of WCC 20.10.080. NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT ORDAINED by the Whatcom County Council that: Section 1. The Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan is hereby amended as shown on Exhibit A. Section 2. Adjudication of invalidity of any of the sections, clauses, or provisions of this ordinance shall not affect or impair the validity of the ordinance as a whole or any part thereof other than the part so declared to be invalid. ADOPTED this 9 day of March , 200b WHATCOM COUNTY COUNCIL ATTEST: ,0 • l: Q WHATC COUNTY, WASHINGTON Dana $ rown- DamwzC®f*rCler& Dan McShane, Chairperson '. •.,sHIN�.• APPROVED AYWIfotM`.~ Approved O Denied i Civil Deputy Prosecutor Pete Kremen, Executive Date: 5�1f-yrl P. 3 Draft 2003 Update inter - jurisdictional cooperation, Whatcom County has coordinated planning and decision making with all levels of government Chapter 1 - Introduction goals and desires, and has made this plan consistent with local plans. EXHIBIT A — County Council Version —Approved to forward to concurrent review on 1 -13 -04 Chapter One INTRODUCTION HOW THE PLAN WAS CREATED Whatcom County's Comprehensive Plan is intended to guide growth in unincorporated areas for the next 20 years in coordination with the new plans of its cities. The fundamental purpose of the Comprehensive Plan is to establish a framework of goals, policies and action items for the more detailed growth planning and implementation actions which will occur in the near future in designated onineeFperated urban growth areas and in the county's rural areas. An object ve of ` hateem Geunty is to encourage Rationale for proposed amendments: (1) The cities have developed comprehensive plans, which are no longer "new' (although they will be updated) and which articulate long -range growth plans. (2) The term "unincorporated urban growth areas" is utilized in other places of the Comprehensive Plan to mean UGAs not associated with a city (i.e. the Cherry Point UGA). However, the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan also addresses UGAs associated with cities. The plan identifies urban growth area (UGA) boundaries and contains a future land use map. The majority of the county's growth will be located within the UGAs. Several factors influenced the development of the adopted goals and policies „ plarm ng reeemmendat '^^^ contained in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan. Rationale for proposed amendment: The Comprehensive Plan is policy document that is adopted by the County Council to guide future development. As such, it does not contain merely recommendations, but adopted policy. First, this plan has been reviewed for consistency with the requirements of the Growth Management Act (GMA), the thirteen (13) stated goals of the GMA (RCW 36.70A.020), mandatory plan elements (RCW 36.70A.070), and the current County Wide Planning Policies. Rationale for proposed amendment: Providing the references will direct the reader to appropriate sections of state law, if they wish to view them. Second, through inter - jurisdictional cooperation, Whatcom County has coordinated planning and decision making with all levels of government to ensure compatibility of goals and desires, and has made this plan consistent with local plans. Third, extensive citizen participation was facilitated through educational forums, surveys, video presentations, public hearings, and written comments made throughout this process. The Planning Commission and County Council quickly learned that for every group or individual that sought a benefit, another's rights were potentially impacted. This Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -1 Draft 2003 Update Chapter 1 - Introduction Plan will probably not satisfy any one particular group of citizens with strongly held views. It does, however, provide common ground on the most sensitive issues that all sides can stand on, if somewhat uneasily, in the interest of what is best for the County as a whole. County -Wide Planning Policies The Whatcom County Council in conjunction with all local cities adopted a set of County- wide Planning Policies. The framework provided by the adopted County -Wide Planning Policies ensures that local planning efforts will be consistent with one another and supportive of regional goals. Whatcom County: The Next Generations In April 1993, the County Executive appointed a committee of individuals representing a broad cross - section of county residents. Their charge was to produce a graphic and written description of what the people of Whatcom County wanted the county to be in 2010 and beyond. They designed an extensive public input process to define this vision for the County. The committee's work was supported and facilitated by Planning staff. Staff also provided the committee with information about GMA requirements and existing conditions in the county. Information included land use facilities, population, environment, resources, and existing plans and zoning designations. The committee helped staff a booth at the Northwest Washington Fair in August 1993. Over 1,500 people visited the booth where they perused displays and maps, completed questionnaires, and read newsletters. In June, August, and September, the Visioning Committee hosted sixteen town hall meetings throughout the county that were attended by over 500 people. Committee members also met with various community groups to explain the Visioning Process. To encourage public input, over 12,000 surveys were distributed, and by October 1, over 1,000 had been returned. A county -wide statistically valid phone survey was conducted which added another 410 people's opinions to the Visioning Process. The telephone survey and questionnaire data were then analyzed, and the results tabulated and summarized by professional survey consultants. By February 1994, the committee had thoroughly reviewed the data and generated a set of Visioning Community Value Statements. These statements are included in Appendix C of ttaGhe' ^^ an addendum to this plan. They were distributed to all committees working on components of the plan. The committee then developed four land use alternatives in order to explore and test different ways of expressing the value statements. These four alternatives are the same alternatives used for the Environmental Impact Statement for this comprehensive plan. The four land use alternatives were presented around the county in another series of town hall meetings. Finally, in June 1994, the committee produced a recommended land use alternative expressed through written value statements and a conceptual land use map. The Visioning Community Value Statements and written recommendations were Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -2 Draft 2003 Update Chapter 1 - Introduction the basis from which individual committees and Planning staff developed land use issues, goals, policies, and action plans as presented to the Planning Commission in the November 1994 Draft Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan. Other Growth Management Committees Citizen committees were used extensively to develop this plan. Almost all of the elements of the plan were generated using input from appointed citizen committees. Each committee was given the results of surveys and town hall meetings from the Whatcom County.' The Next Generations. Each committee spent countless hours reviewing background material, identifying issues, generating goals and policies, and, in some cases, action plans. Committees and committee members are listed in the front of this document. Coordinating Committee The final step in developing the plan was to bring together representatives from all the committees to review each other's products in order to identify conflicts and inconsistencies. Committees then attempted to respond to and correct conflicts. Planning Commission and County Council Review With the development of the draft plan completed, the County Council and Planning Commission held four joint public hearings to receive public input. Following these hearings, the Planning Commission held a series of 43 work sessions from March 1995 through June 1996, reviewing and editing each of the eleven chapters of the draft plan. On June 26, 1996, the Planning Commission completed their review of the plan and forwarded their recommendations to the Whatcom County Council. The Council then conducted six final public hearings and numerous work sessions of their own, and produced the final version contained herein. Whatcom County Planning and Development Services The actual drafting and production of the plan was completed by the Planning Division staff. To a substantial degree, this plan is a refinement of the County's existing Subarea plans. The subarea planning recognized the diversity of communities, life styles and interests in Whatcom County. It afforded citizens a more direct influence in the planning for their particular community. This outcome would seem to validate both the basic wisdom of our subarea planning and the methodology and content of this new Plan. This plan, and its attendant goals and policies and optimal land use patterns, represents a balance of the views and opinions expressed by the many citizens who took time to participate in surveys, workshops, hearings or wrote letters for the record. Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -3 Draft 2003 Update Chapter 1 - Introduction The goals, policies, and implementation strategies developed through the regional visioning and planning process were intended to be consistent with the goals of the GMA. These will provide the foundation for policies intended to assist in the implementation of the GMA by forming a framework for coordinating and integrating the regional goals of our community. In August, 1996 a short video was produced introducing the plan to the community. This video was made available in local libraries, to local groups, and to individuals who wished to check it out from the Planning Office. Citizens were asked to return a questionnaire after viewing the video. Original Adoption and Amendments Rationale for proposed amendment: This new section would simply recognize that amendments have occurred to the Comprehensive Plan since original adoption in 1997. GMA GOALS, COUNTY -WIDE PLANNING POLICIES, AND VISIONING COMMUNITY VALUE STATEMENTS Every chapter in this plan was reviewed for consistency with the GMA Planning Goals, the County -Wide Planning Policies, and the Visioning Community Value Statements generated by the Visioning Process. Each individual chapter describes how consistency was achieved. The connections between this plan's goals and policies, and the goals, policies, and value statements of the other documents are evaluated in the Environmental Impact Statement for this plan. For the complete text of the GMA Planning Goals, the County -Wide Planning Policies, and the Visioning Community Value Statements, see Appendix C of this plan. INTRODUCING WHATCOM COUNTY Whatcom County lies in the fuFthest northwest corner of both the State of Washington and the coterminous United States. It is bounded on the north by the Canadian border, on the east by Okanogan County, on the south by Skagit County, and on the west by the Strait of Georgia and Bellingham Bay. These borders enclose large parts of the Mount Baker National Forest and the North Cascades National Park, which take up about two- thirds of Whatcom County's total area. All but a few residents live in the western third of the county. Bellingham, with an estimated 2002 1995 population of 69260 57,830, is Whatcom County's largest city. Other cities include Blaine, Everson, Ferndale, Lynden, Nooksack, and Sumas, and there are several smaller unincorporated communities. Two Indian reservations and associated trust lands are located within Whatcom County's borders. The Lummi Nation reservation is on the Lummi Peninsula and Portage Island on Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -4 Draft 2003 Update Chapter 1 - Introduction the western side of the county; the Nooksack Tribe reservation and trust lands comprise several parcels along the Nooksack River in the west - central area of the county. Population Population growth in Whatcom County since the arrival of the first Euro- American immigrants in the 1850s has been driven largely by in- migration of people from other sections of the state and country. Table 1 displays the growth of population in Whatcom County from 1910 to 2000 4990, and Table 2 shows the growth figures for each year of the current decade. These tables indicate a steady increase in population overtime, with varying rates of growth often driven by factors external to Whatcom County such as international events or changes in technology and transportation. Analysis -weal - the t Approximately 73% of the population growth between since 1960 and 2000 was is due to in- migration of people from outside the area seeking jobs, life styles, and amenities found in Whatcom County. It should be noted that the first decade of planning under the Growth Management Act (1990 -2000) accompanied the reversal of a 30 -year trend from 1960 -1990 where unincorporated areas grew faster than cities From 1990 to 2000 cities grew at a more rapid rate than unincorporated areas for the first time since the 1950s. Table 1. Population Growth in Whatcom County, 1910 -2000 4990 YEAR TOTAL COUNTY POPULATION AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH UNINCORPORATED POPULATION AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH COMBINED POPULATION OF CITIES' AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH 1910 49,511 20,183 29,328 1920 50,600 0.2% 19,621 -0.3% 30,979 05% 1930 59,128 1.6% 23,112 1.7% 36,016 1.5% 1940 60,355 0.2% 25,860 1.1% 34,495 -0.4% 1950 66,733 1.0% 26,462 0.2% 40,271 1.6% 1960 70,317 0.5% 25,990 -0.2 °/ 44,327 L0% 1970 81,983 1.5% 34,004 2.7% 47,979 0.8% 1980 106,701 2.7% 48,622 3.6% 58,079 1.9% 1990 127,780 1.8% 59,187 2.0% 68,593 1.7% 2000 166 814 2.7% 74 231 2.3 % 92583 3.0% Source: US Census 'Cities include Bellingham, Blaine, Everson (since 1930), Ferndale, Lynden, Nooksack (since 1920), and Somas. Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -5 Draft 2003 Update Chapter 1 - Introduction Table 2. Estimated Population Growth in Whatcom County, 2000 - 2002 109111 -1095 YEAR TOTAL COUNTY POPULATION ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH UNINCORPORATED POPULATION ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH COMBINED POPULATION OF CITIES' ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH 3999 327380 59, -18 68;693 1994 132,209 2.610 62,973 4-." 70,327 24010 4992 137,300 37°/ 64,3333 4A% 72,267 34% 3 993 149,990 2.31 -96 66,461 2-a`% 74,439 3-" 3 994 3 46,000 2-" 68,357 2,69% 76,843 3:2% 4993 348309 2.% 69,633 24=% 78,665 2.4% 2000 166814 74231 92583 2001 170 600 2.27% 75 682 1.95% 94918 2.52% 2002 172 200 .94 % 76718 1.37% 95 482 .59% 'Cities include Bellingham, Blaine, Everson, Femdale, Lyndon, Nooksack, and Sumas. .• AM ROWNIM IN W-1 W-Mm ... FFFrF,FFrnfeq1 .. Ynneorporated areas. The total 2002 _ _ rate of • • wth in five years (1997-20 More than half of all Whatcom County residents live in BE nee: cities. Map 1 displays the 2000 1998 population density distributiea for Whatcom County. The highest densities are in and around cities, though there are other small centers of medium to high population density such as the ones at Sudden Valley, Birch Bay, Paradise Lakes near Kendall, and along the Guide Meridian. The 2000 1998 Census data showed 92 583 68 -,593 people, Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -6 Draft 2003 Update Chapter 1 - Introduction or about 55.5% 54% of the county's total population, living inside the city limits of Whatcom County's seven incorporated cities. Another 13920 13,000 people were living near the cities, in the :secs that are proposed as city urban growth areas (derived from Whatcom County Population and Economic Forecasts ECONorthwest May 2002 Table 3 -2 and Census counts). Counting these neighborhoods, the urban population was about 64% of the county total. Population Projections Projections of future population size are an essential component of land use planning. As required by RCW 36.70A.110, in 2002 1990, the Washington State Office of Financial Management developed a 20 -year population projection for Whatcom County. Its projection feF the year 2012 wAs a Gnunty wide populat on of 174,399. Meanwhile, Bellingham, in coordination with Whatcom County and °^��^�cvera' ^r. ^r ^' o the other cities, had contracted with a private consulting firm (ECONorthwest) to develop population projections for the next 20 years. The ECONorthwest and OFM proiections are provided below: The neRs AtAntg ripveloped law, m a and h gh F e f...,.,.. sts The lowFange ^r Rationale for proposed amendment: Inserts updated population projection information and eliminates outdated language. Table 3 ECONorthwest Population Projections for Whatcom County ECONo Average Annual Average Annuat Total Population Growth 2002 -2022 Growth Rate 2002-202 Population Growth Popullation ation Projections for 2002 -2022 2022 Low 215 850 1.14 % 2 183 43 650 3. 231928 1.50% 2986 59728 High 261084 2.10 % 4 444 88 884 Rationale for proposed amendment: Inserts updated population projection information and eliminates outdated language. Table 3 ECONorthwest Population Projections for Whatcom County Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -7 ECONo Average Annual Average Annuat Total Population Growth 2002 -2022 Growth Rate 2002-202 Population Growth Popullation ation Projections for 2002 -2022 2022 Low 215 850 1.14 % 2 183 43 650 Medium 231928 1.50% 2986 59728 High 261084 2.10 % 4 444 88 884 Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -7 Draft 2003 Update Chapter i - Introduction Table 4. OFM Population Projections for Whatcom County Source: State Office of Financial Management Population Projections (Jan 2002). Population Average Annual Average Annual Total Population Growth 2002 -2022 Growth Rate 2002 -2022 Population Growth Pro jections for Pro 2002 -2022 2022 Low 205991 90% 1 690 33791 Medium 236 837 1.61 0/0 3 232 64 637 High 281 122 2.48 % 5 446 108,922 Source: State Office of Financial Management Population Projections (Jan 2002). Rationale for proposed amendment Inserts updated population projection information and eliminates outdated language. The Growth Management Act requires that the County plan for a 20 -year population growth that is within the range projected by OFM unless the County has studies to prove that a different figure is justified. The current 2022 281-5 OFM projection for Whatcom Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -8 1 oil OMAN Rationale for proposed amendment Inserts updated population projection information and eliminates outdated language. The Growth Management Act requires that the County plan for a 20 -year population growth that is within the range projected by OFM unless the County has studies to prove that a different figure is justified. The current 2022 281-5 OFM projection for Whatcom Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -8 1 oil Rationale for proposed amendment Inserts updated population projection information and eliminates outdated language. The Growth Management Act requires that the County plan for a 20 -year population growth that is within the range projected by OFM unless the County has studies to prove that a different figure is justified. The current 2022 281-5 OFM projection for Whatcom Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -8 Draft 2003 Update Chapter 1 - Introduction County ranges from to a Low projection of 205,991 193,,667 Pro action #figure of 234.917 220,A00 is within people to a Medium projection of 236,837 208,242 people and a High projection of 281,122 224,904 people. The County's 2022 population Pro action #figure of 234.917 220,A00 is within CFM's range and therefore requires no further justification. The rationale for using this figure, which is Table 5 3 shows how the total projected 2022 29I6 population would be distributed assuming: 1) that all of the UGAs have been annexed into existing cities and 2) that each city receives a share of the county's overall growth apportioned according to each city's comprehensive plan growth projections. Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -9 001100111 RIO, i 10 wlamwmy Table 5 3 shows how the total projected 2022 29I6 population would be distributed assuming: 1) that all of the UGAs have been annexed into existing cities and 2) that each city receives a share of the county's overall growth apportioned according to each city's comprehensive plan growth projections. Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -9 Draft 2003 Update Chapter 1 - Introduction Tnhlo 53 Whatrnm rnuntv Population Proiections and Distribution Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -10 20001996 20001094 Projected 2022 2000 -2022 Estimated 201v015 Population Population. 4994 -2814 (Based on 2000 (Cities include Population Net Growth 1994 City UGAs Including (Cities Include Cities Limits) Urhae- Growth Proposed Include Area ) UGAs UGAs Bellingham 67 171 78 040 113 055 35 015 47830 661543 95,1'140 29,997 Blaine 3 770 4779 ZSIQ 2MI 3,425 4,457 8300 4,233 Everson 2 635 2 256 331912 16.1 44W 2-1035 31850 4875 Ferndale 8758 9 934 1122 Z 389 6,530 7,745 19,900 42,155 Lynden 9 020 9 604 15�! Z 2% 7315 71990 43,809 5;819 Nooksack 851 895 LM 9H 825 854 4,700 846 Sumas 978 995 684 014 940 966 4800 834 Subtotal 92 583 106,503 162 fi81fi81 58�1_Zfl 78,665 9&400 445,290 54,8W Unincorporated Whatcom County 74231 60311 712 i 11.925 65,735 54800 68,476 4447-6 Lummi Reservation 314" 3,800 6800 3900 166 814 166,814 234.917 8�1 ➢8 Total Whatcom 448 220.366 72.884 County .148380 -399 Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -10 Draft 2003 Update Chapter 1 - Introduction Rationale for proposed amendment. (1) Updates the chart in accordance with the Council's Planning & Development Committee recommendations of 1219103. (2) The population figures for the Lummi Reservation were deleted because we do not have updated projections for the Reservation. The Reservation was not separated out in the ECONorthwest study. Additionally, staff sent an e-mail to the Lummi Nation on 2 -20 -03 asking if they have an official projection for the reservation and followed up with a phone message on 3 -3 -03, but received no response. To avoid tightening urban land supply and Fai6ing=housin9=GosW, the county and the 'ties agreed to the is using a projection of 234.917 " 0,366 for land use and facility use planning aeaemmadate purposes, a land and to _l___i__ to SUPPly a! 1886t 509; _ ..:.,_ @FGatGF than MG Mt"GiP Rationale: Housing costs are influenced by a great many factors. If land supply was the only issue, Whatcom County housing costs should be low. The reference to UGAs should be struck as committing to any population number should not commit the County to need to expand the UGA areas. This is particular to cities wanting to grow but unwilling to protect the urban land supply by creating low density growth within UGAs. Demographics The culturally diverse demographic makeup of the county's population has an effect on land use patterns. For example, Whatcom County residents with children may choose different kinds of transportation and recreation than retired people de. Single- parent families and large extended families need different kinds of housing. And levels of service requirements will vary according to cultural and individual abilities. Another influence on county demographics is the cyclical influx of seasonal residents, primarily from Canada, who maintain recreational homes in parts of the county. Areas most influenced by seasonal residency include Point Roberts, Birch Bay, and the Paradise Lakes /Peaceful Valley area near Kendall. In the period between 1980 and 1990 and 2000, the age composition of Whatcom County's population changed appreciably, and some of the changes were different from what was happening state -wide and nation -wide. These changes were partly due to in- migration. For instance, the number of people at or nearing retirement age (50 -69 years) increased in Whatcom County faster than simple aging could account for, and at a much greater rate than the state average (Whatcom County Population and Economic Forecasts ECONorthwest May 2002 pip. 2 -7 & 2 -8). This was y tF61e n the 'ated aFeas of the GOURty, where 75+ was the fastest grow ng age gFeup. In 2000 1-990, there were 19400 16,764 people age 65 and older in Whatcom County (11.6% of the total population). Over 4500 2;000 of the 65+ group had self -care or mobility limitations. Approximately 1,560 (80/6) Giese tc 1,490 (about O0%) had incomes below the poverty level. By comparison, approximately 15% 46% of Whatcom County residents under age 65 lived in poverty. Rationale for proposed amendment. While the 75+ age group grew rapidly between 1990 and 2000, the 45 -54 and 55 -59 age groups grew at a faster pace. Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -11 Draft 2003 Update Chapter 1 - Introduction Census age groups containing the traditional ages of college students (15 -19 and 20 -24) have significantly larger counts than the pre - college -age and post - college -age groups. Rationale for proposed amendment: The difference between the 15 -24 age group and the post - college age group (25 -34) was more than moderate in 2000. In 2000, there were 30,722 people in the 15 -24 age bracket and 21,429 in the 25 -34 age group. Additionally, the ECONorthwest report suggests a net out - migration in the 30 -34 age group from 1990 -2000 (Whatcom County Population and Economic Forecasts ECONorthwest, May 2002, pp. 2 -7 and 2 -8.) In 2000 4 4490, Whatcom County residents between the ages of 15 and 64 numbered 114.185 85,507. There were 33229 26,512 children under 15. The county's racial composition also changed between 1980 and 1990 and 2000. Although in 2000 88% 5990 93 0; of all county residents were white, there had nevertheless been an marked increase in populations of Native Americans, African Americans, Asian - Pacific Islanders, and Hispanics. The Hispanic population is the most difficult to assess accurately because of its mobility. It is the primary component of a large contingent of migrant farm workers. The Washington State Employment Security Department estimates that of the approximately 3 600 5;500 farm workers employed annually in the county (not including agricultural support services such as processing and trucking), 2300 3,500 are seasonal or migrant workers ., rants; the ba.ancc are Land Use History When Euro- American immigrants first arrived on Bellingham Bay in the 1850s, the landscape of Whatcom County was comprised of mature conifer forests, winding streams and rivers, numerous lakes and wetlands, and small natural meadows. Lummi and Nooksack people inhabited villages near the coast and along the rivers and lakes at strategic fishing locations. The Nooksack Indian people cultivated root crops they had developed along the Nooksack Valley where sub - irrigated meadows were ideal sites for such plants as camas and "Indian carrot." They emphasized the use of root crops, perhaps much more than other native peoples along the Pacific Coast. The abundance of high - quality timber and easy accessibility to water for milling and transport were the principal reasons Euro- American immigrants first came to Whatcom County in the 1850s. Small communities grew along Bellingham Bay and the Nooksack River as more immigrants arrived in Whatcom County. They began clearing the forests and draining the wetland areas for farmsteads. Between 1890 and 1925, 130,000 acres of lowland Nooksack Valley forests were cleared for farms. In addition, logging companies sold logged -over land to their employees and to immigrants from the East Coast for small farmsteads. As a result of the sale of small parcels of logged -over lands, the average Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -12 Draft 2003 Update _ Chapter 1 - Introduction farm size in Whatcom County is relatively small - -about 84 86 acres -- compared to the statewide average of 523 468 acres (1997 Census of Agriculture Profiles USDA). Many lumber and shake mills and other industrial plants were built in Bellingham, on Lake Whatcom, and in other areas of the county, while new commercial and residential buildings were being developed in all communities. Coal mining was taking place at several locations in Whatcom County at this time, and major fish processing plants were constructed on Bellingham Bay. Whatcom County's population in 1910 was 49,511. Between 1925 and 1950, there was little change in the land use patterns that had been developed during the previous fifty years. Some land which had been cleared for agriculture was abandoned and naturally regenerated into second - growth forests. Most areas that were harvested for timber had reseeded and were growing mixed forests of conifers and deciduous trees. Residential and industrial development continued to grow, but at a slower pace than during the previous fifty years. Commercial centers remained within the core of the major cities. By 1950, Whatcom County's total population had grown to 66,733, with the majority of the growth occurring in the cities. Between 1950 and 2000 1990, - the amount of land devoted to commercial activity gradually increased in response to population growth. Expanded use of the automobile encouraged commercial activities and residential development outside city centers. Coal mining ceased, but sand and gravel mining grew in importance. Farming became increasingly competitive, and the economic pressure tended to concentrate agricultural resources on the most productive soils. The trend toward abandonment or conversion of farmland to other uses continued. Some lands in the Nooksack Valley which were formerly cleared for agriculture reverted back to native forest cover. Residential, commercial, and industrial uses continued to expand into agricultural areas. These changes picked up speed during the 1960s and 1970s as Whatcom County experienced a population boom. The total population for Whatcom County in 2000 1990 had grown to 166.814 427,780, an increase of approximately 137% aknest- O in 40 years. Current Land Use Whatcom County covers 1,377,645 acres, or approximately 2,152 square miles. Of that total area, about 1,107,453 1,125,499 acres, or 80% 8"k, is either covered with forest or is managed for forest resources. This total includes virtually all federal lands and all state and private forest lands in unincorporated Whatcom County. A significant portion of this total (877,000 874,045 acres) is under federal management by either the US Department of Agriculture Forest Service or the US Interior Department, North Cascades National Park. Cities cover 29 063 28,5556 acres. Land use patterns on non - federal lands in unincorporated Whatcom County (470.241 475,944 acres) can be summarized by looking at the distribution of the various uses. Table 6 4 reflects the land use patterns. These data show that agriculture and forestry land uses predominate today in Whatcom County with 116,120 123,277 and 231.352 251,453 acres respectively classified in each category. Forest lands in the lower foothills which were initially harvested between 1900 and 1950 now support commercially mature stands of timber. Some areas of original forest still remain on non - federal lands in Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -13 Draft 2003 Update Chapter 1 - Introduction Whatcom County. Large tracts of un- managed forest are found primarily on federal lands in the Mount Baker - Snoqualmie National Forest in the upper watershed of the Nooksack Basin. ad Rationale for proposed amendment: Updated acreage figures are included in table 6. It is redundant to include these figures in the paragraph above if there is no associated commentary. Table 6 4. Land Use Distribution on Non - Federal Lands in Unincorporated Whatcom County Land Use Total Acres Percent of County yTotal Forestry 232✓_352 251,453 49.252-.9 Agriculture 116120423 -273 24.7269 Residential 53 008 43;079 11.39:3 Vacant - 29 323 32.&13 6.26 -9 Minin Fishin &Related Uses 2 177 2$14 0_5 0,6 Public & Utilities 10,729 464W 2.333 Industrial & Manufacturin 2,987 3060 0.609 Commercial & Services 8 856 2,469 1 995 Lummi Nation Trust Lands: 7 100 1.5 Property with no Assessor's 8 589 1_8 land use code (Roads. lands along the Naoksack River, etc.) TOTALS 470_241 475,944 Acres 100Awl Source: Whatcom County Planning and Development Services, 2003 4994 Resource land uses, which include agriculture, forestry, and minerals, are the largest category of land use in Whatcom County. Map 2 displays the distribution of agriculture and forestry land uses based on County Assessor's data within Whatcom County. From the map it is evident that agricultural land use predominates throughout the western lowlands of the county and in the South Fork Nooksack Valley. Forest land use is Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -14 1 - Introduction concentrated on the uplands of the county. (See Chapter 8, 'Resource Lands," for more detailed information on each of these land uses.) Map 3 displays the distribution of commercial and industrial land uses in Whatcom County. This Fnap shows that -:The majority of commercial land uses occur next to major transportation routes, such as the Guide Meridian, or within the boundaries of cities. There are also concentrations of commercial uses in the Birch Bay UGA and Point Roberts. The majority of industrial parcels are also located in the cities their UGAs or at the Cherry Point ^^•' ""m�marmeortvvne ^�• ^^ ^eve industrial areas. There are a total of 14222 12,232 acres of industrially zoned land in Whatcom County, including 4 095 3,874 acres within city limits and 7,045 acres in the Cherry Point industrial area. The locational pattern shown by Map 3 indicates the importance of transportation connections to these land uses. (See Chapter 6, "Transportation," and Chapter 7, "Economics. ") Vacant lands are scattered throughout the county. Map 4 depicts the general distribution of vacant lands, as defined by the latest Whatcom County Assessor's records. Vacant lands are lands which at the time of the assessors survey appear to be undeveloped, or if previously developed, are presently vacant and unused. They are usually lands being held for future development. Vacant lands are particularly concentrated in and around urban areas of the county. Map 5 graphically portrays the distribution of all single - family residential ao rcels units in both nGorpeFated and unincorporated Whatcom County, as interpreted from the Whatcom County Assessor's property information database. From this ^n^^ it is apparent that ' The majority of single - family residents are concentrated in the cities and the major urban and intensely developed rural portions of the county such as Sudden Valley, Paradise Lakes, Glacier, Lake Samish, Lake Whatcom (north end), Cain Lake, Birch Bay, Sandy Point, and Lummi Island. A fairly even, but lower, density distribution of single - family residences is scattered throughout the central rural portion of the county between Bellingham and Lynden, Ferndale and Everson /Nooksack. Another even but lower density distribution of single - family residences occurs between Ferndale and Blaine. As may be expected, single - family homes are also located along the valley floors of the three forks of the Nooksack. The Cherry Point industrial area, the agriculturally dominated area north of Lynden and the forested foothills in the eastern part of the county have very low to zero residential density. A prominent characteristic of Whatcom County housing is the high number of vacation, resort, and second -home units found throughout the county. In 2000 approximately 2/3 1990 over half ^r the "vacant" units were actually occupied part of the year for seasonal, recreational or occasional use by peeple who lived outside the GOURt!' Rationale for proposed amendment: The 2000 census contains figures for vacant units used for seasonal, recreational and occasional use. However, it does not appear to indicate whether the people who occupy these units have their primary residence inside or outside of Whatcom County. Multi- family residential land use is displayed on Map 6. The majority of multi - family residential units are located in the urban areas of the county, primarily in and around Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -15 Draft 2003 Update Chapter 1 - Introduction Bellingham, Ferndale, Lynden, and Blaine. Within the unincorporated area of Whatcom County, multi - family housing units are found near Birch Bay, Sudden Valley, and Glacier, Point Roberts and in the area between Bellingham and Lvnden. According to the 2000 1-990 Census, there were 34421 27,189 housing units within the unincorporated portions of Whatcom County. This figure equates to a residential housing density of 0.127 0 -.094 dwelling units per acre of land, or one residence per ei ht 49 acres, on land currently zoned to permit residences (Rural, Urban, Rural Residential, Agricultural certain commercial zones the Point Roberts Transitional zone Eliza Island and Rural Forestry). 34&-L^ rc ^^� ^^�° The density of cities in W hatcom County is as follows: Table 7 Population Density of Cities in Whatcom County Source Calculations derived from Population Land Area and Density for Cities and Towns April 1, 2002 State Office of Financial Management. Note The above calculations are based upon the entire area within the city limits except water areas. Under the direction of the Growth Management Act, Whatcom County is required to develop transportation plans for future population growth. Part of the analysis for transportation planning includes defining the density of population by transportation analysis zones. Map 7 presents the housing density per acre for Whatcom County in Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -16 Peo le er ACre of L Bellin ham 3.94 Blaine 1.09 Everson 2.82 Ferndale 1.92 Lvnden 3.54 Nooksack 2.09 Sumas 1.19 Average 2.37,;`.^ Source Calculations derived from Population Land Area and Density for Cities and Towns April 1, 2002 State Office of Financial Management. Note The above calculations are based upon the entire area within the city limits except water areas. Under the direction of the Growth Management Act, Whatcom County is required to develop transportation plans for future population growth. Part of the analysis for transportation planning includes defining the density of population by transportation analysis zones. Map 7 presents the housing density per acre for Whatcom County in Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -16 Draft 2003 Update Chapter 1 - Introduction 2000 4PI A, displayed by Census Block. (See Chapter 3, "Housing," and the Housing Background Document for more information.) Future Land Use Future land use patterns in Whatcom County will likely be influenced to a large degree by County and city land use plans, existing development patterns, existing transportation systems, local and international economics, and environmental and natural resource land constraints. Agriculture and forest resource lands will likely continue to dominate the landscape. Availability of potable water for residential, commercial, and industrial use will almost certainly be a limiting factor to development in some areas of the county. Establishing urban growth areas will likely encourage more growth in those areas identified and result in less pressure on rural areas. Water Resources Water resources in Whatcom County include 16 major lakes and dozens of smaller ones, 3,012 miles of rivers and streams and their estuaries, over 37,000 acres of wetlands, aquifers containing an undetermined amount of groundwater, and 134 miles of marine shoreline. These resources must serve multiple uses. The beneficial uses they provide are water for domestic, stock watering, industrial, commercial, agricultural, irrigation, hydroelectric power production, mining, for fish and wildlife maintenance and enhancement, recreational, and thermal power production purposes, and preservation of environmental and aesthetic values, and all other uses compatible with the enjoyment of the public waters of the state (RCW 90.54.020 (1)). Many human uses tap into the water to use it elsewhere. For instance, individual residents are supplied with potable water by approximately 375 eveF -300 public water systems and FGughly 18,000 picivgtp wplig. According to a statistically valid phone survev Table 8. Drinking Water Supplies Drinking Water Source Percentage of people in Whatcom County Using this Drinking Water Source City or District 69.3% Communft Waters stem 9.9% Private Well 13.0% Surface Water 1.2 % Bottled Water 4.5% Don't now 2.1% Total 100.0% Source Whatcom County Health 8 Human Services telephone survey completed in October 2002. Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -17 Draft 2003 Update Chapter 1 - Introduction Households consume an average of 100 to 140 gallons per person per day, and more than that during the summer. Water is also critical to Whatcom County agriculture; irrigation is mandatory for all high -value crops. Irrigated crops use an average of 5,445 gallons per acre per day during spring and summer, and irrigated pasture averages 2,160 gallons per acre per day. Livestock must be watered year round, and dairy equipment and facility cleanup also go on all year. Dairy operations, for example, call for about 50 gallons per cow per day year round. Some industries are large -scale water users, and they may need both potable and non - potable water. One of the largest, the Georgia Pacific paper mill, useds about -1 -50 -,000 67 000 gallons of potable water and 34,290,000 8.500.000 gallons of non - potable water per day in 2002. This is a smaller volume than Georgia Pacific once used; closure of the pulp operations and conservation measures have reduced its water use significantly in recent years. The three major water systems, Whatcom County PUD #1, City of Bellingham, and City of Lynden, draw surface water from the Nooksack River and Lake Whatcom. Most of the rest rely on groundwater as their source. This is not as distinct a difference as it seems, since Whatcom County water resources are an interconnected system. While a few major water suppliers appear to have the capacity to meet future demand, many of the county's water suppliers are nearing their legal and physical capacity to supply water to their customers. Whatcom County's plan will be adjusted and will respond to emerging information on water. The working assumption of the plan is that there will be adequate water supply. Water supply for the county was most recently identified in the April 1993, Coordinated Water System Plan (February 2000). The complexities related to water supply are further discussed in the Utility chapter of this plan. Economics Whatcom County's economy has traditionally been based on agriculture, fishing, forestry, and mining. Through the 1950s, these industries represented more than 25% of the total county employment. Access to markets for sale of locally produced goods as well as for purchase of products manufactured elsewhere was limited to rail, ship, and a two -lane highway. Employment was seasonal for many types of work. Since the 1960s, there has been a significant shift in Whatcom County's economy. Increased activities in manufacturing, trade, services and government have joined the traditional economic activities. Mobil Oil (now Conoco - Phillips Tesse- NerthwesE) initiated major changes in the county's economy when it opened its oil refinery at Neptune Beach in the mid- 1950s. The Intalco aluminum refinery at Cherry Point came on line in 1966, and Atlantic Richfield built an oil refinery at Cherry Point in the 1970s (now BP West Coast Products). Interstate -5, also completed in the early 1970s, provided ready access to Whatcom County from both British Columbia and the central Puget Sound region. Western Washington University expanded enrollment and became one of the county's major employers. County Comprehensive Plan 1 -18 Draft 2003 Update Chapter 1 - Introduction 1990s. Relating to agriculture the CEDS states: The top five employment sectors in 2000 excluding the agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors are listed below. Together, these sectors accounted for 85.4% of the non -farm employment. Table 9. Non -Farm Employment Sector Employment Share Services 25.6% Retail Trade 21.3% Construction & Government & Public Education 16.2% Manufactunn Wholesale 14.3% Construction Trans odation 8.0% Total 85.40% Source: CEDS (o. III -2) The top paving sectors in 2000 excluding the agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors. were: Table 10. Average Wages Sector Annual Average.. Wage Manufacturing 37 325 Construction & $36,118 Minin Wholesale Trade JK 420 Trans odation 122 570 Finance, Insurance, $30,754 & Real Estate Average Coun WAe $26,295 Source: CEDS (o. III -20) Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan t -19 Draft 2003 Update Chapter 1 - Introduction dependent an the rr Of SX key REI rd:es H e49Od Processing, these prim ry Rdl strips Resource -based occupations and industries still give a distinctive flavor to Whatcom County's economy, although in recent years they have come to account for only just under 6% to 70/6 of county employment (Natural Resources Sector Profile Center for Economic and Business Research Western Washington University Fall 2002 pp. 3 18 and 26 . The combination of good soils, favorable climate, abundant rainfall and access to urban markets underlies the continued importance of intensive -type farming necessary for successful operation of the small farms found in Whatcom County. According to the County Assessor's records, in 2000 4990, 39 25% of non - federal lands in the county were devoted to agriculture. As significant as agriculture is to the economy, these lands are often considered for urban or rural uses, and the amount of land in farm production has been steadily shrinking over time. This erosion of the farm land base has implications for the county's wider economy. For example, the maintenance of a sufficiently large land area devoted to farming is necessary to support associated farm processing operations such as milk and berry processing facilities. The fishing industry is facing a variety of restrictions on its activities. The populations of many fish species have declined, and sewe are be ' id ea to deteFFRiRe if they should be 1 seed as endangered speoies. Chinook salmon and bull trout have been listed under the Endangered Species Act. Moratoria, quotas, and harvest management are already in place for most of the species Whatcom County fishers currently harvest. In addition, the available fishery is divided between Indian, US, and Canadian fishers. Nevertheless, the fishing industry contributes substantially to the county's economy. Whatcom County's fishing fleet is the ceceRd largest :R the state, °Rd fishes both Washington and Alaska waters. The total catch landed at the ports of Bellingham and Blaine between 1985 and 1990 ranged from 50 to 65 million pounds annually but declined to 24.7 million pounds by 2000 (CEDS p. III -61. Rationale for proposed amendment: The Washington State Department of Fish & Wildlife could not provide information on the number of commercial fishing boats licensed in Whatcom County and the other Counties around the state (per phone conversation 3- 5 -03). The State Employment Security Department tracks jobs related to Vshing, hunting, and trapping." In this category, Whatcom County ranked 5`" among the Counties in the state in 2001. The forest resources of Whatcom County have historically been one of the most important natural resources in the region. Forests cover approximately ever half of the non - federal lands in the county. In addition to trees for lumber, poles and paper, forest land products include gravel, rock, medicinal products, and ornamental plants. Logging and processing various types of forest products employ hundreds of county residents. Like fishing, however, forestry is subject to limitations, because forest lands provide important Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -20 Draft 2003 Update Chapter 1 - Introduction associated resources such as water, wildlife habitat, and fish habitat which need to be conserved. The extraction of minerals, in particular sand and gravel, remains important in areas characterized by growth such as western Washington. In Whatcom County, high quality record levels ^ both tonnage and gross value, The material is an essential element in the construction of roads, homes, schools, shopping centers and other structures. To a degree this reflected growth in economic activity, much of it in the form of urbanization. While urbanization creates demand for sand and gravel resources, it may also encroach upon or build over those same resources, rendering them inaccessible. Strong community opposition to mining near residential, agricultural or sensitive environmental areas may also limit mining opportunities. Rationale for proposed amendment: An informal survey of three sand & gravel industry representatives indicates that sand and gravel usage is at or above levels of the late 1980s. The new language references the recent DNR study, which also acknowledges the high demand for sand and gravel resources. Manufacturing is a vital GHFMRV I the s ^^'^ largest contributor to Whatcom County's economy paving higher wages than any other sector of the economy, and employinges 14.3% 350/6 of the county's non -farm work force in 2000 (CEDS, pp. III -2 and III -201. The county's primary manufacturing industries ranked by number of lobs in 2000 were: Food & kindred products. lumber & wood products primary metal industries paper & allied Within the last 20 years, the impact of Canadian manufacturers has bees increaseding in Whatcom County. Beginning in 1989, Canadian manufacturing investment in Whatcom County surged, with British Columbia manufacturers developing operations in the county to take advantage of lower operating costs and easy access to US markets. The investmeRt County has been estimated at GveF $86 mill OR, GFeat ng ever 1,300 d reGt jobs. Rationale for proposed amendment: Staff contacted Western Washington University (WWU), the Port of Bellingham, and the Economic Development Council, but was unable to obtain updated figures for Canadian manufacturing investment in Whatcom County. WWU indicated they might do a survey on this issue, but it would not be available until later. Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -21 Draft 2003 Update Chapter 1 - Introduction Even more than Canadian manufacturers, Canadian consumers have contributed to and impacted the local Whatcom County economy. In fact, Canadian influences may be more significant for the county's economy than any internal factor short of major new industrial development. When the Bellis Fair Mall opened in 1988, it instantly became a regular destination for thousands of Canadian shoppers seeking relief from higher taxes on goods and services in British Columbia. Every major retailer from downtown Bellingham moved to the new regional mall. Total Rretail sales in Whatcom County 'r , , fastest g•^ ^ ^oter of the economy, rose rapidly from $885 million in 1987 to $1.9 billion in i992. gy 2000, total retail sales had increased to almost 2.2 billion (Trade Sector Profile Center for Economic and Business Research Western Washington University Fall 2002 per. The level of sales to Canadian consumers can vary widely, however, since their spending in Whatcom County is subject to both Canadian and US economic pressures. Sluggish sales when the Canadians stay away have a disprepert onate negative effect on the county economy. This negative effect is especially significant for destinations close to the border. Rationale for proposed amendment: Between 1995 and 2001, retail sales declined by 10% in Blaine and 27% in Sumas. Point Roberts has also been significantly impacted by the continuing weakness of the Canadian dollar (CEDS, p. III -12). However, total retail sales in the County have grown since 1995 despite the weak Canadian dollar and fewer auto border crossings (Trade Sector Profile, Center for Economic and Business Research Western Washington University, Fall 2002, pp. 1, 5, and 15). While the fast growth of the retail and service sectors has generally been good for Whatcom County's economy, for individual residents it has been a mixed blessing. Growth has tended to keep unemployment down, but underemployment is common. Retail and service sector jobs increased between 1981 and 2000 4984 from 42.4 26% to 46.9 39% of the non -farm job market whereas manufacturing jobs fell from 20.8% to 14.3 T /u in the same period (CEDS, p. III -3). Retail sector jobs pay at a lesser rate than manufacturing, and are often part-time and without benefits. As-- the — preper#ien o WhatGOM County jobs attribi - -table to lower paying retail employment has iRGFeased, Rationale for proposed amendment: According to the Census, median household income has increased from $28,367 in 1989 to $40,005 in 1999 for Whatcom County. Even when adjusted for inflation, this represents a slight increase in median household income. Additionally, although the number of retail jobs surged in the late 1980s and early 1990s, there were slightly fewer retail jobs in 2000 than in 1992. For the decade of 1990 -2000, retail jobs increased from 13,128 to 13,971 (Trade Sector Profile, Center for Economic and Business Research Western Washington University, Fall 2002, p. 7). Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -22 Draft 2003 Tourism has developed into a significant $78— rnilliea industry employng about 2,500 people. Visitors spend $333 million annually in Whatcom County and there are and Tourism Development, October 20021. Whatcom County's natural scenic attractions draw six to seven million visitors a year. Shopping draws millions more: •••" eR e,a� ^� ^nge rates are favorable, 30,000 to 50,000 20.000 to 30,000 Canadians per week visit Bellis Fair alone. County businesses provide both kinds of tourists a variety of services, including lodging, food and beverages, organized recreational activities, tours, car rentals, air charters, and cruises. Rationale for proposed amendment: The modifications update tourism facts based upon information provided by the Bellingham/Whatcom County Convention & Visitors Bureau in an e-mail of 3110103. Currently Whatcom County has many natural advantages for expanding economic activity. Besides relatively low prices and labor costs, the county's assets include a high quality educational system, including a major university; excellent access to markets in British Columbia, Puget Sound, California, Alaska, and Asia; a productive and dependable work force; and a mild climate. The transportation infrastructure is good, with access to Interstate -5, a well - developed secondary road system, a deep -water port and multiple docks at Cherry Point, additional port facilities in Bellingham, good rail connections to US and Canadian destinations, and an international airport. The overall quality of life in Whatcom County and recreational activities are is also c ^n^ `�^�rn�vcred to be `o ~`o be major assets in retaining expanding and attracting new businesses. Rationale for proposed amendment: WWU's Winter 2002 Business Retention and Expansion Survey revealed that recreation, quality of life, and Western Washington University were identified by local businesses as the top three strengths in Whatcom County. Staff note: Rationale statements are for explanatory purposes only and will not appear in the text of the comprehensive plan once it is adopted. Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan 1 -23