HomeMy WebLinkAboutPacket Special Council May 8 2024Whatcom County
COUNTY COURTHOUSE
311 Grand Avenue, Ste #105
Bellingham, WA 98225-4038
(360) 778-5010
Meeting Agenda
COUNCILMEMBERS HAVE BEEN INVITED TO ATTEND AN INFORMAL 2025
COMPREHENSIVE PLAN REVIEW AND UGA UPDATE MEETING - A QUORUM
OF THE COUNCIL MAY ATTEND THIS EVENT
COUNCILMEMBERS
Barry Buchanan
Tyler Byrd
Todd Donovan
Ben Elenbaas
Kaylee Galloway
Jon Scanlon
Mark Stremler
CLERK OF THE COUNCIL
Dana Brown-Davis, C.M.C.
Council (Special)
Wednesday, May 8, 2024
2 PM
Hybrid Meeting - Bellingham City Hall
May 8, 2024Council (Special)Meeting Agenda
Call To Order
Roll Call
Discussion
1.AB2024-312 2025 Comprehensive Plan Update and UGA Review
Other Business
Adjournment
Page 2 Printed on 8/12/2025Whatcom County
Agenda Bill Master Report
Whatcom County COUNTY COURTHOUSE
311 Grand Avenue, Ste #105
Bellingham, WA 98225-4038
(360) 778-5010
File Number: AB2024-312
1AB2024-312 Status:DiscussedFile ID:Version:
DBrown@co.whatcom.wa.us05/02/2024File Created:Entered by:
DiscussionCouncil OfficeDepartment:File Type:
Assigned to:Council (Special)Final Action:02/20/2025
Agenda Date:02/20/2025 Enactment #:
Primary Contact Email: DBrown@co.whatcom.wa.us
TITLE FOR AGENDA ITEM:
2025 Comprehensive Plan Update and UGA Review
SUMMARY STATEMENT OR LEGAL NOTICE LANGUAGE:
See attached agenda and letter.
HISTORY OF LEGISLATIVE FILE
Action: Sent To: Date: Acting Body:
DISCUSSED05/08/2024 Council (Special)
DISCUSSED08/02/2024 Council (Special)
DISCUSSED08/29/2024 Council (Special)
DISCUSSED09/11/2024 Council (Special)
DISCUSSED12/04/2024 Council (Special)
DISCUSSED01/23/2025 Council (Special)
DISCUSSED02/20/2025 Council (Special)
DISCUSSED05/21/2025 Council (Special)
Attachments:Executive Letter to Elected Officials 10.11.2023, Elected Officials Meeting Agenda 5.8.2024,
SEPA Presentation 5.8.2024, HB 1220-HAPT Presentation 5.8.2024, Population and Employment
Presentation 5.8.2024, Elected Officials Meeting Agenda 8.2.2024, Elected Officials Meeting
Agenda 8 29 2024, Elected Officals Meeting - Presentation 8 29 2024, Elected Officials Meeting
Agenda 9 11 2024, Elected Officials Meeting Agenda 12.4.2024, Presentation 12.4.2024
(Non-Binding Resolution), Presentation 12.4.2024 (Housing), Presentation 12.4.2024 (EIS),
Page 1Whatcom County Printed on 8/12/2025
Agenda Bill Master Report Continued (AB2024-312)
Elected Officials Meeting Agenda 1.23.2025, Elected Officials Meeting Agenda 2.20.2025, Elected
Officials Meeting Agenda 5.21.2025
Page 2Whatcom County Printed on 8/12/2025
Satpal Singh Sidhu
Whatcom County Executive
311 Grand Avenue Bellingham WA, 98225 (360) 778-5200 ssidhu@whatcomcounty.us
To: Honorable City Mayors, City Managers, and City Council Members
Honorable County Council Members
From: Satpal Singh Sidhu, County Executive
Date: October 11, 2023
Subject: 2025 Comprehensive Plan Update and UGA Review
The Growth Management Act (GMA) requires Whatcom County and the seven cities
within the County to update our comprehensive plans and review urban growth areas
by June 30, 2025. The GMA expects the County and cities to work cooperatively in
this endeavor, and it is to our advantage to do so. That is why each interlocal
agreement for planning, annexation and development signed in 2022 includes a
clause that the County Executive may convene a group of elected officials from the
County and cities to discuss and review issues associated with growth management
planning.
It is critical to coordinate planning efforts between the County and cities for this
important endeavor. Therefore, I am inviting elected officials from the County and
the cities to a series of informal meetings to discuss matters relating to growth
planning and the urban growth area review. The 1st meeting date and location is:
• Wednesday November 8, 2023 - Lynden City Hall, 300 4th Street, Lynden
at 2:00 – 4:00 p.m. (this will be a hybrid meeting, so a virtual option will be
provided).
I am requesting that each city and the County Council provide representation at
these meetings. The purpose of the meetings will be to engage in discussions,
come to mutual understanding of the goals and issues of each jurisdiction, and
coordinate land use planning activities. However, there will not be voting or final
decisions made at these meetings. Rather, elected officials will take the
information back to their respective jurisdictions for consideration in their own
decision making processes. While there is no set number of representatives from
each jurisdiction, it must be less than a quorum of the legislative body.
Thank you for considering my invitation and I hope to see representatives from
each city and the County Council at these meetings. Staff will send out a meeting
agenda prior to the meeting.
Sincerely,
Satpal Singh Sidhu
County Executive
City/County Elected Officials Meeting Growth Management Coordination – 2025 Update
Agenda
May 8, 2024
2:00 – 4:00 p.m.
Bellingham City Hall, 210 Lottie Street
Mayor's Boardroom in Mayor's office on 2nd floor
(virtual option also provided)
2:00 – 4:00 p.m.
1. Welcome and Introductions
2. Population and Employment Growth Projections
3. Housing: House Bill 1220 and Housing for All Planning Tool
4. Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) - Status update
5. Discussion – Elected Officials and Staff
6. Next Meeting, Wednesday September 11
7. Wrap-up and Adjourn
Microsoft Teams meeting
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City of
Bellingham
City of
Blaine
City of
Everson
City of
Ferndale
City of
Lynden
City of
Nooksack
City of
Sumas
Whatcom
County
EIS Update | May 8, 2024
2025 Comprehensive Plan and Development
Regulations Update & Urban Growth Areas Review
Whatcom County
Photo Credit: Rich Stratman
SEPA Process
SEPA Process
Final EIS
•Definition of
Preferred
Alternative
•Impact Evaluation
•Proposed
Mitigation
•Response to
Comments
•County Adoption
DEIS
Publication
•30-day Public
Comment
Period
•Public Hearing
Draft EIS
Preparation
•Definition of
Alternatives
•Existing
Conditions
•Impact
Evaluation
•Mitigation
Strategies
Notice of
Intent and
Scoping
•30-day Public
Comment
Period
•Scoping
Summary
3
Growth/Land Use Alternatives
•The No-action Alternative would assume that the existing Whatcom County
Comprehensive Plan and growth projections are carried forward, which
represents a lower growth option (275,450 total County population in 2045).
•Alternative 1 would use the Washington State Office of Financial Management
(OFM) medium population projection (292,714 total County population in
2045) and allocate growth to each UGA and the area outside the UGAs using
recent historic population shares.
•Alternative 2 would use a population projection and allocations to each UGA
and the area outside the UGAs requested by the cities and County.
•Alternative 3 would use a higher population projection than both the OFM
medium projection and the population projection requested by the cities and
County for 2045 and allocate growth to each UGA and the area outside the
UGAs similar to the growth allocations requested by the cities and County.
•Alternatives may include, where appropriate, changes to land use/zoning
designations, residential densities, and/or urban growth area boundaries to
accommodate projected housing and employment growth through the year
2045.
4
Existing Conditions
•SEPA required element for baseline evaluation
•Areas of the environment included in the EIS:
•Earth
•Air Quality/Climate
•Water Resources
•Plants and Animals
•Land and Shoreline Use
•Plans and Policies
•Population, Housing, and Employment
•Environmental Justice
•Cultural Resources
•Transportation
•Public Services and Utilities
•Input from County departments on existing issues
5
Next Steps in the EIS Process
Publication of the Draft EIS for public comment is anticipated
in early fall of 2024.
Public hearing on the Draft EIS
Publication of the Final EIS is anticipated in the first quarter of
2025.
Complete impact analysis/comparison of the alternatives and
mitigation strategy development.
6
Project Duration
Topic-Specific Citizen Advisory Committees
December 2023
Project Kickoff
Orientation Interviews
June-July 2024
Interactive Community Survey
Regional Pop-Ups and Workshops
Planning Commission Meetings
County Council Meetings
Aug-Oct 2024
Draft EIS Release
Planning Commission Meetings
County Council Meetings
Non-binding multi-jurisdictional resolution regarding allocation of growth to UGAs
Fall 2024
Open House: Plan Recommendations
Planning Commission Meetings
County Council Meetings
2025
Final EIS
Planning Commission Work Sessions, Hearings, and Recommendations
County Council Meetings, Hearings and Adoption
Timeline
7
Questions on the Process?
Project Contacts
Matt Aamot
Senior Planner
Whatcom County
2025Update@co.whatcom.wa.us
360.778.5939
Sharese Graham (Consultant)
Senior Environmental Planner
SCJ Alliance Consulting Services
bill.grimes@scjalliance.com
509.835.3770
https://www.whatcomcounty.us/4218/2025-Comprehensive-Plan-Updates
Project Website
9
City/County Elected Officials Meeting | May 8, 2024
House Bill 1220 and Housing Planning for All Tool
Whatcom County
Photo Credit: Rich Stratman
LELAND
CONSULTING
GROUP
HB 1220 amended the GMA in 2021 to require that jurisdictions
“plan for and accommodate housing affordable to all economic
segments of the population of the state”
Additionally, RCW 36.70A.070(2) now requires that Commerce
project housing needs including “units for moderate, low, very
low, and extremely low-income households and emergency
housing, emergency shelters and permanent supportive housing.”
HAPT generates total Countywide need based on population
projections. County then allocates units to jurisdictions by income
band (as a % of Area Median Income)
Jurisdictions must show land capacity to accommodate the units
through zoning, and document potential barriers to production
and racially disparate impacts in housing policy.
Housing Allocation & HB1220 Overview
Further details in
HB 1220 Book 1:
Establishing
Housing Targets
for your
Community and
HB 1220 Book 2:
Guidance for
Updating Your
Housing Element
https://deptofcommerc
e.box.com/s/chqj8wk1
esnnranyb3ewzgd4w0
e5ve3a
https://deptofcommerc
e.app.box.com/s/1d9d
5l7g509r389f0mjpowh
8isjpirlh
2
HAPT Tool Introduction
•Excel tool developed by Commerce
•Housing units categorized by the income bands that
they could potentially serve
•Income expressed as a % of Area Median Income (AMI),
HUD’s measurement of family income adjusted for household
size (1.34) –standard income measurement for subsidized
housing eligibility.
•Whatcom County AMI: $102,600•Tool projects net new units needed by 2045 based on
OFM population projections:
3
Baseline and New Units Categorized by Income
•2020 baseline units categorized by income band that
they serve.
•Data from Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy and
Public Unit Microdata Sample (HUD/Census datasets)•New units needed broken down by income band
accounting for several categories of need:
•Emergency Housing and Permanent Supportive
Housing needs determined using Monte Carlo model
•Many factors, including disability rate, evictions, incarceration rate, number of
one-person households, severe rent-burden, receipt of cash benefits,
unemployment, current estimate of homelessness based on the point-in-time
count and a number of other data sources.
•Full methodology on pp. 43-58 of Book 1.
4
Total Whatcom County Need
Step 1
Select a County
Whatcom ✔Low Medium High
Projected Population (2045)258,231 292,714 337,551
Step 2
Select a Projection Year Table 2: Projected Countywide Housing Needs Based on User Inputs
2045 ✔Whatcom County
Population Target = 292,714
Total Non-PSH PSH 30-50%50-80%80-100%100-120%120%+
Step 3 Total Future Housing Needed (2045)130,841 11,062 3,836 15,955 28,123 16,778 14,015 41,072 1,295
Enter Population Target in Range Estimated Housing Supply (2020)*95,217 2,996 404 9,108 24,150 14,457 11,771 32,331 775
292,714 ✔Net New Housing Needed (2020-2045)35,624 8,066 3,432 6,847 3,973 2,321 2,244 8,741 520
* Note: Supply of PSH in 2020 is beds. However, projections of Net New Housing Needed (2020-2045) are in housing units. See Overview tab for details.
Emergency
Housing/Shelter
Beds
Table 1: OFM GMA Population Projections, 2045
Whatcom County Projected Population, 2045
0-30%
Affordability Level (% of Area Median Income)
•Initial Whatcom County housing baseline and net new
units needed based on OFM Medium Projection:
•Baseline units updated by Leland Consulting Group
(LCG) from Commerce-generated 2020 baseline to
2023 using permit data from cities and the County
5
2023 Baseline Units
2023 Revised Baseline by UGA
Emergency
% of Total Total Non-PSH PSH >30-50%>50-80%>80-100%>100-120%>120%Housing Needs
Bellingham Total 49.8%47,564 1,207 586 4,119 16,782 6,400 5,029 13,442 693
Bellingham City 45.6%43,575 1,137 586 3,767 15,503 6,016 4,539 12,027 693
Bellingham Unincorporated UGA 4.2%3,989 70 0 352 1,279 384 490 1,415 0
Birch Bay Unincorporated UGA 5.6%5,322 197 0 975 1,292 1,155 425 1,278 0
Blaine Total 3.9%3,746 169 0 246 728 918 401 1,284 0
Blaine City 3.7%3,548 158 0 230 681 900 374 1,205 0
Blaine Unincorporated UGA 0.2%198 11 0 16 47 18 27 79 0
Cherry Point Unincorporated UGA 0.0%6 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0
Columbia Valley Unincorporated UGA 1.6%1,541 153 0 432 727 38 28 163 0
Everson Total 1.1%1,085 30 0 120 371 207 81 277 0
Everson City 1.1%1,053 29 0 116 359 201 78 270 0
Everson Unincorporated UGA 0.0%32 1 0 4 12 6 3 7 0
Ferndale Total 6.3%5,980 203 0 568 1,385 915 694 2,216 0
Ferndale City 6.1%5,818 197 0 552 1,346 889 674 2,160 0
Ferndale Unincorporated UGA 0.2%162 6 0 16 39 26 20 56 0
Lynden Total 6.9%6,576 76 0 328 1,462 1,175 922 2,614 0
Lynden City 6.8%6,521 75 0 325 1,451 1,165 914 2,591 0
Lynden Unincorporated UGA 0.1%55 1 0 3 11 10 8 23 0
Nooksack Total 0.6%546 0 0 29 150 140 51 175 0
Nooksack City 0.6%542 0 0 29 149 139 51 174 0
Nooksack Unincorporated UGA 0.0%4 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0
Sumas Total 0.7%701 30 0 83 272 168 58 90 0
Sumas City 0.7%701 30 0 83 272 168 58 90 0
Sumas UGA 0.0%0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAMIRDS 9.9%9,407 335 0 853 990 1,471 1,459 4,299 12
Area Outside UGAs and LAMIRDS 23.5%22,410 797 0 2,032 2,369 3,508 3,476 10,228 70
Total 100.0%95,477 2,862 586 8,933 25,538 14,626 11,164 31,768 763
0-30%
6
Allocating Countywide Need to Jurisdictions
•HAPT Tool allocates housing units by income band to
Cities and unincorporated County areas
•LCG modified tool to allocate units to:
•Cities + UGAs
•Unincorporated UGAs (Birch Bay and Columbia Valley)
•Limited areas of more intensive rural development (LAMIRDS)
•Rural/Resource Land Areas (Outside LAMIRDS and UGAs)
•Counties can choose method of allocation:
•Commerce baseline method (Method “A”) allocates an equal
share of new units at each income band to each jurisdiction
•Commerce is in the process of updating this methodology to
reflect specific considerations of low -income units in rural
areas
7
Income Bands and Housing Types
•Commerce “Guidance for Updating Your
Housing Element” broadly connects income
bands to housing types.
8
Method A –Modified Geographies and Base Year
Method A -Equal Share of Countywide Income Band to All Jurisdictions
0-30%Emergency
% of Total Total Non-PSH PSH >30-50%>50-80%>80-100%>100-120%>120%Housing Needs
Countywide Net New Units 2023-2045 31,334 8,055 3,250 6,652 2,155 1,514 2,218 7,490 520
Share of Countywide Net New Units 2023-2045 100%26%10%21%7%5%7%24%
0-30%Emergency
% of Total Total Non-PSH PSH >30-50%>50-80%>80-100%>100-120%>120%Housing Needs
Bellingham City & UGA 49.7%15,570 4,002 1,615 3,305 1,071 752 1,102 3,722 258
Birch Bay UGA 3.0%931 239 97 198 64 45 66 223 15
Blaine City & UGA 4.5%1,408 362 146 299 97 68 100 336 23
Cherry Point UGA 0.0%0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Columbia Valley UGA 1.5%470 121 49 100 32 23 33 112 8
Everson City & UGA 1.4%449 115 47 95 31 22 32 107 7
Ferndale City & UGA 9.8%3,055 785 317 649 210 148 216 730 51
Lynden City & UGA 11.0%3,448 886 358 732 237 167 244 824 57
Nooksack City & UGA 0.6%194 50 20 41 13 9 14 46 3
Sumas City & UGA 1.6%495 127 51 105 34 24 35 118 8
LAMIRDs 5.7%1,771 455 184 376 122 86 125 423 29
Area Outside UGAs and LAMIRDS 11.3%3,543 911 367 752 244 171 251 847 59
Total 100.0%31,334 8,055 3,250 6,652 2,155 1,514 2,218 7,490 520
9
Method A -Modified
Method A (Adjusted for Rural Areas to 50% AMI)
0-30%Emergency % of Total Total Non-PSH PSH >30-50%>50-80%>80-100%>100-120%>120%Housing Needs
Bellingham City & UGA 49.7%15,570 4,820 1,945 3,980 777 546 800 2,701 311
Birch Bay UGA 3.0%931 288 116 238 46 33 48 162 19
Blaine City & UGA 4.5%1,408 436 176 360 70 49 72 244 28
Cherry Point UGA 0.0%0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Columbia Valley UGA 1.5%470 146 59 120 23 16 24 82 9
Everson City & UGA 1.4%449 139 56 115 22 16 23 78 9
Ferndale City & UGA 9.8%3,055 946 382 781 153 107 157 530 61
Lynden City & UGA 11.0%3,448 1,068 431 882 172 121 177 598 69
Nooksack City & UGA 0.6%194 60 24 50 10 7 10 34 4
Sumas City & UGA 1.6%495 153 62 126 25 17 25 86 10
LAMIRDs 5.7%1,771 0 0 0 285 200 294 992 0
Area Outside UGAs and LAMIRDS 11.3%3,543 0 0 0 571 401 587 1,984 0
Total 100%31,334 8,055 3,250 6,652 2,155 1,514 2,218 7,490 520
10
Next Steps / Discussion
•County and Cities refining housing allocations
•Land Capacity Analysis test run
11
Permanent Supportive Housing
•Definition from RCW 36.70A.030
•"Permanent supportive housing" is subsidized, leased housing with no limit on
length of stay that prioritizes people who need comprehensive support services
to retain tenancy and utilizes admissions practices designed to use lower
barriers to entry than would be typical for other subsidized or unsubsidized
rental housing, especially related to rental history, criminal history, and personal
behaviors. Permanent supportive housing is paired with on-site or off-site
voluntary services designed to support a person living with a complex and
disabling behavioral health or physical health condition who was experiencing
homelessness or was at imminent risk of homelessness prior to moving into
housing to retain their housing and be a successful tenant in a housing
arrangement, improve the resident's health status, and connect the resident of
the housing with community-based health care, treatment, or employment
services. Permanent supportive housing is subject to all of the rights and
responsibilities defined in chapter 59.18 RCW.
12
Elected Officials | May 8, 2024
Population and Employment:
Growth Projections and Preliminary Allocations
Whatcom County
Photo Credit: Rich Stratman
LELAND
CONSULTING
GROUP
Population and Employment Forecasts
Growth Fundamentals
•The State of Washington OFM makes demographic
projections at the state and county level
•Statewide and Whatcom County forecasts both
assume decreasing average annual % growth in future
years
3.3%
2.2%2.1%
1.7%
0.9%
1.5%
1.2%1.1%1.0%0.9%0.9%0.8%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 p2025 p2030 p2035 p2040 p2045 p2050
Whatcom Average Annual Growth Rates (OFM Middle)
3
7.1%
7.5%
6.5%
6.1%6.0%
5.7%
5.2%
5.5%5.6%
5.2%
5.0%4.9%
3.9%4.1%3.8%3.9%3.7%3.7%
4.1%
4.8%
4.4%
4.9%
5.2%5.3%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
births
deaths
Births minus Deaths = Natural Increase
•The fundamental dynamics behind that assumption are
decreasing birth rates in the face of increasing death
rates.
OFM Middle
Scenario Projections
4
5-yr Births &
Deaths as a Pct.
of Population
actual (estimated)projected
7.4%
13.9%
8.6%
8.7%
6.5%
2.5%
6.9%
5.2%4.6%4.9%5.0%4.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Net Migration is a More Volatile Factor
•OFM assumes a relatively steady, but conservative net
migration rate going forward
OFM Middle
Scenario Projections
5
actual (estimated)projected
5-year Net
Migration as %
of Population
Updating Countywide Growth Projections
•Updates to countywide population and employment
growth projections –and allocations of that growth to
UGAs –generally followed methods used in the 2016
Comprehensive Plan Update.
•Review of OFM Middle projections for population, 2023 to 2045
•Revision of Low and High ranges --general tightening to make
extremes more actionable for jurisdictions’ planning purposes
•As with 2016, the OFM Low range was deemed too
conservative relative to historical growth
•OFM High range projection was also adjusted --but not as
much, to remain conservative for infrastructure planning (i.e.
avoiding risk of under-building infrastructure in the face of
higher-than-expected growth pressure).
6
OFM vs. Adjusted Population Growth
•Baseline (Middle) growth trajectory is tapering as
natural increase declines and region depends more
on net migration inflows.
OFM High is further from Middle than Low is.
We preserve that relationship but tighten the
range for both (via adjustments to the more
volatile migration rate assumptions).
7
Allocation of Population Growth to UGAs
•After settling on a countywide growth trajectory and
high/low range, we allocated overall population gains
to UGAs
•Based on shares of recent (10-year) growth within
each UGA boundary (and areas outside UGAs as a
rural/resource lands category)
UGA Pop. 2013 Pop. 2023 Growth 2013 to 2023
Share of County Population 2023 Share of 10-yr. County Growth
Bellingham 92,915 105,529 12,614 44.8%42.4%
Birch Bay 7,698 8,908 1,210 3.8%4.1%
Blaine 5,277 6,728 1,451 2.9%4.9%
Cherry Point 35 61 26 0.0%0.1%
Columbia Valley 3,060 3,577 517 1.5%1.7%
Everson 2,683 3,171 488 1.3%1.6%
Ferndale 12,962 16,762 3,800 7.1%12.8%
Lynden 13,208 16,696 3,487 7.1%11.7%
Nooksack 1,389 1,573 184 0.7%0.6%
Sumas 1,445 1,810 365 0.8%1.2%
Areas outside UGAs 65,349 70,985 5,637 30.1%18.9%
Total 207,937 235,800 29,779 100.0%100.0%
8
Allocation of Population Growth to UGAs
•Distributing shares for each of the scenario/ranges:
Allocated Growth by Scenario(2023 to 2045)
UGA Allocation Share Low Middle High
Bellingham 42.5%16,242 24,158 36,462
Birch Bay 4.1%1,555 2,313 3,490
Blaine 4.9%1,865 2,774 4,186
Cherry Point ----
Columbia Valley 1.7%665 988 1,492
Everson 1.6%627 933 1,408
Ferndale 12.8%4,883 7,262 10,961
Lynden 11.7%4,481 6,665 10,060
Nooksack 0.6%237 352 531
Sumas 1.2%468 697 1,052
Areas outside UGAs 18.9%7,243 10,773 16,260
Total Population Growth 100%38,265 56,914 85,902
9
Employment Growth
•After looking at historical small area employment by
industry, GIS-matched to UGA boundaries
•We computed shares by industry type (in broad groups
of Industrial, Retail, Commercial, Resources) and by
UGA to guide allocation across UGAs:
Middle Scenario UGA Resources Industrial Retail Comm'l Total
Bellingham 138 2,820 1,841 10,373 15,172
Birch Bay 0 22 10 92 124
Blaine 4 327 48 322 701
Cherry Point 0 450 0 43 493
Columbia Valley 0 6 3 4 13
Everson 10 88 24 81 203
Ferndale 19 961 201 961 2,141
Lynden 20 606 183 991 1,799
Nooksack 0 29 7 44 79
Sumas 2 98 8 43 150
Area outside UGAs 736 927 172 1,567 3,403
Whatcom Total 928 6,333 2,497 14,521 24,279
10