HomeMy WebLinkAboutPacket Special Council AM Oct 29 2024Whatcom County
Council (Special)
COUNTY COURTHOUSE
311 Grand Avenue, Ste #105
Bellingham, WA 98225-4038
(360) 778-5010
Meeting Agenda
Tuesday, October 29, 2024
9AM
Hyrbid Meeting - Council Chambers
HYBRID MEETING - ADJOURNS BY 9:55 AM (PARTICIPATE IN -PERSON, SEE
REMOTE JOIN INSTRUCTIONS AT www.whatcomcounty.us/joinvirtualcouncil, OR
CALL 360.778.5010)
COUNCILMEMBERS
Barry Buchanan
Tyler Byrd
Todd Donovan
Ben Elenbaas
Kaylee Galloway
Jon Scanlon
Mark Stremler
CLERK OF THE COUNCIL
Cathy Halka, AICP, CMC
Council (Special) Meeting Agenda October 29, 2024
Call To Order
Roll Call
Announcements
Individuals who require special assistance to participate in the Council's meetings are asked to contact
the Council Office at 360.778.5010 at least 96 hours in advance. This committee meeting is also noticed
as a meeting of the Whatcom County Council, with the agenda limited to committee business.
Discussion
AB2024-647 Discussion relating to population and employment projections for the Birch Bay
Urban Growth Area (UGA), Cherry Point UGA, Columbia Valley UGA and areas
outside UGAs (Rural areas and Resource Lands) associated with the 2025 Whatcom
County Comprehensive Plan Update
Items Added by Revision
Other Business
Adiournment
Whatcom County Pure 2 Printed on 413012025
File ID: AB2024-647
File Created: 09/25/2024
Department: Planning and
Development Services
Department
Assigned to: Council (Special)
Agenda Date: 10/29/2024
Whatcom County
Agenda Bill Master Report
File Number: AB2024-647
Version: 1
Entered by: Matt Aamot
File Type: Discussion
Primary Contact Email: maamot@co.whatcom.wa.us
TITLE FOR AGENDA ITEM:
COUNTY COURTHOUSE
311 Grand Avenue, Ste #105
Bellingham, WA 98225-4038
(360)778-5010
Status: Discussed
Final Action: 10/29/2024
Enactment #:
Discussion relating to population and employment projections for the Birch Bay Urban Growth Area
(UGA), Cherry Point UGA, Columbia Valley UGA and areas outside UGAs (Rural areas and
Resource Lands) associated with the 2025 Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan Update
SUMMARY STATEMENT OR LEGAL NOTICE LANGUAGE:
Discussion relating to population and employment projections for the Birch Bay Urban Growth Area
(UGA), Cherry Point UGA, Columbia Valley UGA and areas outside UGAs (Rural areas and
Resource Lands) associated with the 2025 Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan Update. This initial
discussion will inform the development of a non -binding multi -jurisdictional resolution for consideration
by the County Council at a later date.
HISTORY OF LEGISLATIVE FILE
Date: Acting Body: Action: Sent To:
10/08/2024 Council Committee of the Whole DISCUSSED
10/22/2024 Council Committee of the Whole DISCUSSED AND
MOTION(S) APPROVED
10/29/2024 Council (Special) DISCUSSED
Whatcom County Page 1 Printed on 4/30/2025
Agenda Bill Master Report Continued (AB2024-647)
Attachments: Staff Memo for 10.8.2024, Presentation on 10.8.2024, Staff Memo for 10.29.2024
Whatcom County Page 2 Printed on 4/30/2025
WHATCOM COUNTY
Planning & Development Services
5280 Northwest Drive
Bellingham, WA 98226-9097
360-778-5900, T Y 800-833-6384
360-778-5901 Fax
Memorandum
October 2, 2024
TO: The Honorable Whatcom County Council
FROM: Matt Aamot, Senior Planner
THROUGH: Steve Roberge, Assistant Director
Mark Personius
Director
RE: 2025 Comp Plan Update - Preliminary Population and Employment
Projections
The Washington State Growth Management Act (GMA) requires that certain
counties, and the cities within those counties, engage in regular planning for future
population and employment growth. GMA planning goals include encouraging
development in urban areas with public facilities and services, reducing sprawl,
planning for housing affordable to all economic segments of the population,
economic development, conservation of agricultural and forest lands, and protecting
the environment (RCW 36.70A.020).
The last Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan update was completed in 2016. The
GMA requires Whatcom County to review and revise its Comprehensive Plan and
development regulations by December 31, 2025 (RCW 36.70A.130). Additionally,
the GMA requires review of urban growth areas (UGAs) under RCW 36.70A.130(3).
The UGAs must have sufficient areas and densities to accommodate population,
housing and employment growth projected for the new planning period (2023 -
2045). Therefore, Whatcom County has initiated a multi -year project to update its
Comprehensive Plan and development regulations by the state deadline. The
Comprehensive Plan update and UGA review is being conducted in close
coordination with the seven cities in Whatcom County.
The County and cities hired a consulting firm to develop initial population and
employment growth projections. The Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan
Population and Employment: Growth Projections and Preliminary Allocations
Technical Report (Leland Consulting Group, May 22, 2024, hereinafter referred to
as "2024 Technical Report") includes preliminary growth projections to UGAs and
the area outside UGAs. The consultant report represents a starting point for public
input and discussions by planning commissions and elected officials to develop
policy based growth allocations. Here are the next steps in the process (and
tentative schedule) for developing growth projections:
The County Council Committee of the Whole provides direction on growth
allocations for the Birch Bay UGA, Cherry Point UGA, Columbia Valley UGA,
and Rural areas & Resource Lands outside UGAs (October 2024).
The Cities develop recommended growth allocations for their respective UGAs
(October 2024).
The County Planning Commission holds a public hearing and issues
recommendations on the proposed County and City growth allocations
(November 2024).
The County Councils and City Councils approve "non -binding multi -
jurisdictional resolutions" for the growth allocations (December 2024).
These policy -based allocations may take into consideration factors such as goals of
individual cities, County goals, public input, infrastructure, and land capacity.
Ultimately, the County Council will adopt growth projections for the entire County,
along with projections for UGAs and Rural & Resource Lands, in the Comprehensive
Plan update by December 2025. The Council has a considerable amount of
discretion in developing the growth projections, but they must be within the range
of growth alternatives (bookends) studied in the Environmental Impact Statement.
Additionally, County and City comprehensive plans (including growth projections)
must be coordinated and consistent under the GMA.
An initial step in the process of developing policy based projections for the Birch
Bay UGA, Cherry Point UGA, Columbia Valley UGA and Rural & Resource Lands is
discussion with the County Council Committee of the Whole on October 8. In
November, the County Planning Commission will hold a public hearing on the
County and City proposals (which are due by October 31). The "non -binding multi -
jurisdictional resolution" for population, housing and employment will then go to the
County Council and City Councils for consideration.
The tables below show the 2024 Technical Report growth projections and the
County Planning and Development Services' (PDS) initial proposal for consideration
by the County Council Committee of the Whole on October 8. The County Council
has the discretion to choose higher or lower projections within the range of growth
alternatives in the Environmental Impact Statement.
Table 1. Population Growth Proposal
Area Tech Report Tech Report Tech Report County Notes on Initial County
Low Middle High PDS PDS Proposal
Proposal
Birch Bay UGA 1,555 2,313 3,490 2,662 Between Tech Report Middle and High Scenarios
Continuation of 2013-23 trend
Cherry Point UGA 0 0 0 O N/A, Industrial UGA
Columbia Valley UGA 665 988 1,492 1,137 Between Tech Report Middle and High Scenarios
Continuation of 2013-23 trend
Outside UGAs 7,243 10,773 16,260 10,000 Slightly below Tech Report Middle Scenario
Table 2. Employment Growth Proposal
Area Tech Report Tech Report Tech Report County Notes on Initial County
Low Middle High PDS PDS Proposal
Proposal
Birch Bay UGA 80 124 194 450 Above Tech Report High Scenario
Greater jobs/housing balance
Cherry Point UGA 316 493 769 1,200 Above Tech Report High Scenario
Columbia Valley UGA 9 13 21 350 Above Tech Report High Scenario
Greater jobs/housing balance
Outside UGAs 2,180 3,403 5,302 3,403 Tech Report Middle Scenario
The initial County PDS proposals above would allocate population growth to the
Birch Bay and Columbia Valley UGAs consistent with recent growth trends in these
areas. The population growth allocation to Rural and Resource Lands (outside
UGAs) would be slightly below the 2024 Technical Report's middle scenario (the
middle scenario is based on the share of countywide growth the Rural and Resource
Lands received over the last decade).
Employment growth can fluctuate based on a number of factors, including available
and serviced land and recruitment of businesses of various sizes. The employment
projections for UGAs are higher than past trends and may be considered optimistic
when compared against past growth. However, local governments and special
purpose districts can facilitate job growth by providing adequate land supply and
conducting capital facility planning to serve future growth (both of which should be
consistent with the growth projections for the community). Therefore, these
projections would set the stage to potentially facilitate job growth in the future.
Below is a more detailed discussion of the recommendations and how they were
derived.
Birch Bay UGA
Population
Historical population growth in the Birch Bay UGA is shown below.
Population Growth in the Birch Bay UGA (1990-2020)
Average
Average
Share of
Annual
Annual
Countywide
Growth for
Growth for
Growth
Growth for
Year
Population
Decade
Decade
Rate
Decade
1990
2,141
2000
4,163
2,022
202
6.9%
5.2%
2010
7,379
3,216
322
5.9%
9.4%
2020
8,685
1,306
131
1.6%
5.1%
Source: Population data from 1990 and 2000 is from the Whatcom County Population and Employment
Projections and Urban Growth Area Allocations Phase I Technical Report (BERK, 2013, p. 9). Population
data for 2010 and 2020 is from the State Office of Financial Management's Small Area Estimates Program.
3
Population growth in the Birch Bay UGA has fluctuated over the last several
decades, as shown in the table above. Overall, adequate land supply, availability of
public water & sewer and the attractiveness of the area have led to a growing Birch
Bay community that has more than doubled in population from 4,163 in 2000 to
8,685 in 2020.
The 2024 Technical Report middle population growth scenario, which is based upon
the share of countywide growth the UGA received from 2013 to 2023, would equate
to an additional 105 people per year in the Birch Bay UGA from 2023-2045. This is
lower than growth experienced in the last three decades. The proposed population
allocation extrapolates the annual average population growth in the UGA between
2013 and 2023 to the new planning period (2023-2045). The proposal growth
allocation of 2,662 would equate to 121 people/year through 2045.
Employment
The 2024 Technical Report middle employment growth scenario is based upon the
share of employment that each UGA had in 2021. Although the Birch Bay UGA had
3.8% of the county -wide population in 2023, it only had 0.5% of the county -wide
jobs (2021).
Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan Policy 7K-6 is to "Support long-term
employment efforts in the unincorporated areas of the county, such as those stated
in the Point Roberts, Birch Bay and east County Economic Development Plans and
Sub -Area Plans." The Birch Bay Community Plan states:
... Purchasing power of the Birch Bay Community is significant and most of
its consumer dollars are expended outside the Birch Bay area. To capture
the consumer dollar, the Birch Bay Community needs commercial areas for
retail and services of significant size to attract competitive retail and service
outlets. The proposed community plan identifies such commercial areas at
Blaine Road and Alderson Road, Blaine Road and Birch Bay-Lynden Road and
again at Lincoln Road and Shintaffer Road... " (p. 2-24).
The Community Plan's Vision Statement indicates, in part, that Birch Bay will be
. a place where scenic beauty is harmonized with urban development and job
creating activities..." (p. 5-5).
If the 2024 Technical Report middle growth allocation of 124 new jobs (2023-2045)
was adopted along with the proposed population allocation, the Birch Bay UGA
would add about 1 job for every 21 new residents over the planning period. Such
an allocation would also be substantially lower than the 545 jobs allocated to the
Birch Bay UGA in the current Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan.
In order to support opportunities for businesses to locate in the Birch Bay UGA and
potential employment opportunities, the initial proposal is for an employment
allocation of 450 jobs over the new planning period from 2023 to 2045.
4
Bach Bay Urban Growth Area
Urban Growth Area
Urban Growth Area Reserve
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5
Cherry Point UGA
Population
N/A - Cherry Point is an industrial UGA and does not allow residential land uses.
Employment
The 2024 Technical Report middle employment growth scenario is based upon the
share of employment that each UGA had in 2021. The Cherry Point UGA had 2.0%
of the county -wide jobs in 2021 and was assigned this percentage for the 2024
Technical Report's middle growth allocation.
The Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan states "The Cherry Point Urban Growth
Area (UGA) contains approximately 7,000 acres of industrial land. The land has long
been planned and designated by Whatcom County for industrial development ...
(p. 2-53).
Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan Goal 2CC is to "Maintain Cherry Point as an
unincorporated urban growth area based on its unique location, characteristics and
its significant contribution to the overall industrial land supply and Whatcom
County's tax base."
Comprehensive Plan Policy 2CC-1 is to:
Designate Cherry Point as a major industrial Urban Growth Area to
accommodate major users that need to be located away from concentrated
urban residential areas and that can manage their activities in such a way
that they do not conflict with the goals of the Aquatic Reserve Management
Plan.
The Cherry Point area has long been utilized and recognized as an important
industrial area in the County. In fact, the Cherry Point UGA had 7.1% of the
county -wide industrial employment in 2021 (2024 Technical Report, p 20). In order
to support opportunities for industries to locate in the area and potential job growth
(including from redevelopment of the Intalco site) the initial proposal is for an
employment allocation of 1,200 for the Cherry Point UGA (2023-2045), which is
above the 2024 Technical Report's high employment growth scenario and above the
current Comprehensive Plan's allocation of 890 jobs for this area.
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7
Columbia Valley UGA
Population
Historical population growth in the Columbia Valley UGA is shown below.
Population Growth in the Columbia Valley UGA (1990-2020)
Average
Average
Share of
Annual
Annual
Countywide
Growth for
Growth for
Growth
Growth for
Year
Population
Decade
Decade
Rate
Decade
1990
454
2000
21384
11930
193
18.0%
4.9%
2010
3,056
672
67
2.5%
2.0%
2020
3,353
297
30
0.9%
1.2%
The Columbia Valley UGA had relatively high growth from 1990-2000 (193 people
per year) and more moderate growth from 2000-2010 (67 people per year). The
Columbia Valley UGA grew at a slower pace from 2010-2020 (30 people per year)
While housing tends to be less expensive in the the Columbia Valley UGA, it is
about a 50-mile round trip to downtown Bellingham. Therefore, gas prices
influence overall cost of living in this area. Adequate land supply, public water &
sewer in portions of the UGA, and less expensive housing have led to a growing
Columbia Valley UGA community that has increased from 2,384 residents in 2000
to 3,353 in 2020.
The 2024 Technical Report middle population growth scenario, which is based upon
the share of countywide growth the UGA received from 2013 to 2023, would equate
to an additional 45 people per year in the Columbia Valley UGA from 2023-2045.
The initial proposal extrapolates the annual average population growth in the UGA
between 2013 and 2023 to the new planning period (2023-2045). The proposal
growth allocation of 1,137 would equate to about 52 people/year through 2045.
Employment
The 2024 Technical Report middle employment growth scenario is based upon the
share of employment that each UGA had in 2021. Although the Columbia Valley
UGA had 1.5% of the county -wide population in 2023, it only had 0.1% of the
county -wide jobs (2021).
The vision statement in the Foothills Subarea Plan states, in part: "... The
Columbia Valley will become a fully -served urban area set within this rural context,
providing a range of shopping, housing, and employment opportunities and
accommodating the majority of new Foothills residents..." (p. 2-6). The Subarea
Plan also contains the following goal and policy:
Goal LU4 - Provide for increased employment opportunities in the Foothills.
8
Policy LU4A - Encourage development of light impact industrial or business
park land uses in the Columbia Valley UGA in areas planned for light impact
industrial uses.
If the 2024 Technical Report middle growth allocation of 13 jobs was adopted
(2023-2045), with the proposed population allocation, the Columbia Valley UGA
would add about 1 job for every 87 new residents over the planning period. Such
an allocation would also be substantially lower than the 359 jobs allocated to the
Columbia Valley UGA in the current Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan.
The Foothills Subarea Plan indicates that many Foothills residents must commute
30 minutes or more to western Whatcom County to work (p. 7-1). The Subarea
Plan also indicates that the Planned Town Center/General Commercial zone and the
Planned Light Impact Industrial area were intended to boost economic development
in the Columbia Valley UGA (p. 7-5).
In order to support opportunities for businesses to locate in the Columbia Valley
UGA and potential job growth, the initial proposal is for an employment allocation of
350 jobs over the new planning period from 2023 to 2045.
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10
Rural Areas / Resource Lands (Outside UGAs)
Population
Population growth in the Rural areas and Resource Lands has slowed over the last
several decades, as shown below.
Population Growth in Rural and Resource Lands (1990-2020)
Year
1990
2000
2010
2020
Growth for
Population Decade
45,321
56,775
64,862
69,821
11,454
8,087
4,959
Average
Annual
Growth for
Decade
1,145
809
496
Average
Annual
Growth
Rate
2.3%
1.3%
0.7%
Share of
Countywide
Growth for
Decade
29.3%
23.6%
19.3%
Source: Population data from 1990 and 2000 is from the Whatcom County Population and Employment
Projections and Urban Growth Area Allocations Phase I Technical Report (BERK, 2013, p. 9). Population
data for 2010 and 2020 is derived from the State Office of Financial Management's Small Area Estimates
Program.
The 2024 Technical Report middle population scenario is that population would
increase in Rural and Resource Lands by 10,773 people over the planning period
(2023-2045). The middle scenario, based upon the share of countywide growth the
Rural and Resource Lands received from 2013 to 2023, would equate to an
additional 490 people per year in the Rural and Resource Lands from 2023-2045.
On an average yearly basis, this is comparable to growth experienced between the
last two Censuses. The proposal is to allocate population growth of 10,000 new
residents in the Rural and Resource Lands. This would equate to growth of about
455 people per year in these areas over the 22-year planning period and would
continue the trend of lower growth experienced outside UGAs over the last three
decades.
Employment
The 2024 Technical Report middle employment growth scenario is based upon the
share of employment that each area had in 2021. The Rural and Resource Lands
(outside UGAs) had 30.1% of the county -wide population in 2023 and 14.0% of the
county -wide jobs (2021).1
Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan Chapter 2 contains the following provisions
under the heading of "Rural Employment Opportunities":
Goal 2FF: Provide employment opportunities in the rural parts of
Whatcom County.
Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan Population and Employment: Growth Projections and Preliminary
Allocations Technical Report (Leland Consulting Group, May 22, 2024, pp. 10 and 20).
11
Policy 2FF-1: Support small businesses, cottage industries, home occupations,
resource -based, tourist, recreational, and other appropriate
industries in the rural areas of Whatcom County. New rural
commercial and industrial uses that are more intensive than those
permitted within rural zones as home occupations or cottage
industries should be located within designated Rural Communities
and Rural Business areas.
Policy 2FF-2: Support resource -based industries that require only rural
services, conserve the natural resource land base, and help
maintain the rural character and lifestyle of the community.
Assure adequate facilities, mitigation and buffers through
development regulations.
Policy 2FF-3: Ensure that business operations do not adversely impact adjacent
residential, agricultural or forest land, or compromise water
quality and quantity.
Policy 2FF-4: Allow home -based occupations, cottage industries and small-
scale tourist and recreational uses throughout the rural area
provided they do not adversely affect the surrounding
residential uses, agricultural uses, forestry uses, or rural
character.
Jobs in Rural and Resource Lands are associated with agriculture, forestry, mining,
home based businesses, cottage industries, commercial or industrial uses in
"limited areas of more intensive rural development" (LAMIRDs), public schools, etc.
If the 2024 Technical Report middle growth allocation of 3,403 jobs was adopted as
proposed, with the proposed population allocation, the Rural and Resource Lands
would add about 1 job for every 3 new residents over the planning period.
Recently, there is about 1 job for every 4.5 residents in Rural and Resource Lands.Z
Additionally, such an allocation would be similar to the 3,201 jobs allocated to the
Rural and Resource Lands in the current Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan.
Next Steps
We would like to discuss the initial population and employment proposals for the
Birch Bay, Cherry Point, Columbia Valley, and Rural/Resource Lands with the
Council's Committee of the Whole on October 8 to receive Council direction.
These preliminary population and employment growth projections from the County,
along with growth proposals from the Cities for City UGAs, would then go to the
County Planning Commission. The Commission would hold a public hearing and
issue recommendations. The growth projections would come back to Council in the
form of a draft non -binding multi -jurisdictional resolution.
Thank you for your consideration of this matter. We look forward to discussing it
with you.
The Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan Population and Employment: Growth Projections and Preliminary
Allocations Technical Report (Leland Consulting Group, May 22, 2024) indicates that there were 70,985 people
living outside UGAs (in Rural and Resource Lands) in Whatcom County in 2023 (p. 10). Additionally, 14.0% of
112,633 total countywide jobs were outside UGAs in 2021 (pp. 18 and 20), which equates to approximately 15,769
jobs outside UGAs.
12
2025 Comp Plan Update
Population and Employment Projections
Birch Bay UGA, Cherry Point UGA, Columbia Valley UGA
and Rural Areas
Whatcom County Planning and Development Services
Presentation at County Council Committee of the Whole
October 8, 2024
Growth Projection Process
1. County and City proposals (October 2024)
2. County Planning Commission (November 2024)
3. County Council — Non -binding multi -jurisdictional
resolution
4. City Councils - Non -binding multi -jurisdictional resolutions
5. Environmental Impact Statement
6. County Planning Commission recommendations on Comp
Plan (including growth projections)
7. County Council adoption of Comp Plan (including growth
projections)
Growth Projections - Overview
Population
Table 1. Population Growth Proposal
Area Tech Report Tech Report Tech Report County Notes on Initial County
Low Middle High Pas PDS Proposal
Proposal
Birch Bay UGA 1,555 2,313 3,490 2,662 Between Tech Report Middle and High Scenarios
Continuation of 2013-23 trend
Cherry Point UGA 0 0 0 O N/A, Industrial UGA
Columbia Valley UGA 665 988 1,492 1,137 Between Tech Report Middle and High Scenarios
Continuation of 2013-23 trend
Outside UGAs 7,243 10,773 16,260 10,000 Slightly below Tech Report Middle Scenario
Employment
Table 2. Employment Growth Proposal
Area
Birch Bay UGA
Cherry Point UGA
Columbia Malley UGA
Outside UGAs
Tech Report Tech Report Tech Report County Notes on Initial County
Low Middle High PDS PDS Proposal
Proposal
80 124 194 450 Above Tech Report High Scenario
Greater jobs/housing balance
316 493 769 1,200 Above Tech Report High Scenario
9 13 21
2,180 3,403 5,302
350 Above Tech Report High Scenario
Greater jobs/housing balance
3,403 Tech Report Middle Scenario
Growth Projections
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- Birch Bay Urban Growth Area
Urban Growth Area
Urban Growth Area Reserve
Birch Bay UGA - Population
Population Growth in the Birch Bair UGC# 1990- 0 0
Average Average Share of
Annual Annual Countywide
Growth for Growth for Growth Growth for
Year Population Decade Decade Rate Decade
1990 2,141
000 4,163 2,0220 6.9%, 5. 2 °l/a
010 7,379 3,216 322 5.9%, 9.4°l/a
00 8,685 1,06 11 1.611/b 5.111/b
Initial Population Growth Proposal - 2023-2045: 2,662 (121 people/year)
Birch Bay UGA - Employment
Birch Bay UGA
• 3.8% of the county -wide population (2023)
• 0.5% of the county -wide jobs (2021)
Initial Employment Growth Proposal - 2023-2045: 450
Growth Projections
Cherry Point Urban Growth Area
Urban Growth Area (Major Portflndustrial)
Cherry Point UGA - Employment
Cherry Point UGA
• Industrial UGA - does not allow new residential development.
• 7.1% of the county -wide industrial jobs (2021)
Initial Employment Growth Proposal - 2023-2045: 1,200
Growth Projections
-Columbia Valley Urban Growth Area
L-
Urbarrrowthom a
Urban lmamArea Reserve — —
Columbia Valley UGA - Population
Population Growth in the Columbia Valley UGA (1990-2020)
Average
Average
Share ❑f
Annual
Annual
Countywide
Growth for
Growth for
Growth
Growth for
Year
Population
Decade
Decade
Rate
Decade
1990
454
2000
21384
11930
193
18.0%
4.9%
2010
31056
672
67
2.5%
2.0%
2020
31353
297
30
0.9%
1.2%
Initial Population Growth Proposal - 2023-2045: 1,137 (52 people/year)
Columbia Valley UGA - Employment
Columbia Valley UGA
• 1.5% of the county -wide population (2023)
• 0.1% of the county -wide jobs (2021)
Initial Employment Growth Proposal - 2023-2045: 350
Growth Projections
Rural and Resource Lands - Population
Population Growth in Rural and Resource Lands (1990-2020)
Average
Average
Share of
Annual
Annual
Countywide
Growth for
Growth for
Growth
Growth for
Year
Population
Decade
Decade
Rate
Decade
1990
451321
2000
561775
111454
11145
2.3%
29.3%
2010
641862
81087
809
1.3%
23.6%
2020
691821
41959
496
0.7%
19.3%
Initial Population Growth Proposal - 2023-2045: 10,000 (455 people/year)
Rural and Resource Lands - Employment
Areas outside UGAs
• 30.1% of the county -wide population (2023)
• 14.0% of the county -wide jobs (2021)
Initial Employment Growth Proposal - 2023-2045: 3,403
Summary
WHATCOM COUNTY Planning &Development Services
5280 Northwest Drive
Bellingham, WA 98226
W A S H I N T N PDS@co.whatcom.wa.us
360-778-5900
October 25, 2024
TO: The Honorable Whatcom County Council
FROM: Mark Personius, Director and Matt Aamot, Senior Planner
RE: 2025 Comp Plan Update - Preliminary Population and Employment
Projections
As a follow-up to the October 8 and October 22 meetings of the County Council
Committee of the Whole, Planning and Development Services is providing the
following information for the Council's October 29 special meeting.
Population and employment projections are an important component of planning for
growth in the 2025 Comprehensive Plan update process. One of the fundamental
tenants of the Growth Management Act (GMA) is to encourage the majority of
future growth in cities and UGAs. There are currently two related but different
processes occurring relating to future growth projections in the 2025
Comprehensive Plan update: (1) A Draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS),
and (2) A non -binding multi -jurisdictional resolution to select preliminary 20-year
population and employment growth targets.
Draft EIS
The County is developing a Draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS), with the
assistance of a consultant, relating to the 2025 Comprehensive Plan update. The
Draft EIS will study a range of growth alternatives to provide information to
decision makers on the impacts of different land use scenarios. The Draft EIS will
evaluate the following 20-year growth scenarios:
• A "no action" growth alternative - based on the existing Comp Plan;
• Action alternative 1 - based on the middle growth scenario from the
Population and Employment: Growth Projections and Preliminary Allocations
Technical Report (Leland Consulting Group, May 22, 2024 hereinafter
referred to as "Technical Report");
• Action Alternative 2 - based on preliminary scenarios from the Cities and
County; and
• Action Alternative 3 - based the high growth scenario from the Technical
Report.
The population and employment projections for the EIS alternatives, as currently
formulated, are set forth below. Note that the Whatcom County jurisdictional areas
that are not associated with a city are highlighted in red.
1
No Action (Current Comp Plan)
Population
Employment
Population
Share
Employment
Share
Bellingham City & UGA
17,676
44.6%
4,675
61.1%
Birch Bay UGA
3,007
7.6%
113
1.5%
Blaine City & UGA
2,513
6.3%
433
5.7%
Cherry Point UGA
0
0.0%
184
2.4%
Columbia Valley UGA
766
1.9%
74
1.0%
Everson City & UGA
707
1.8%
124
1.6%
Ferndale City & UGA
3,890
9.8%
826
10.8%
Lynden City & UGA
3,645
9.2%
445
5.8%
Nooksack City & UGA
564
1.4%
24
0.3%
Sumas City & UGA
498
1.3%
92
1.2%
Rural and Resource Lands
6,386
16.1%
661
8.6%
Total
39,650
100.0%
7,651
100.0%
Alternative 1 (OFM / Technical Report Middle)
Population
Employment
Population
Share
Employment
Share
Bellingham City& UGA
24,158
42.4%
15,172
62.5%
Birch Bay UGA
2,313
4.1%
124
0.5%
Blaine City & UGA
2,774
4.9%
701
2.9%
Cherry Point UGA
0
0.0%
493
2.0%
Columbia Valley UGA
988
1.7%
13
0.1%
Everson City& UGA
933
1.6%
203
0.8%
Ferndale City& UGA
7,262
12.8%
2,141
8.8%
Lynden City& UGA
6,665
11.7%
1,799
7.4%
Nooksack City & UGA
352
0.6%
79
0.3%
Sumas City & UGA
697
1.2%
150
0.6%
Rural and Resource Lands
10,773
18.9%
3,403
14.0%
Total
56,915
100.0%
24,279
100.0%
Bellingham City & UGA
Birch Bay UGA
Blaine City & UGA
Cherry Point UGA
Columbia Valley UGA
Everson City & UGA
Ferndale City & UGA
Lynden City & UGA
Nooksack City & UGA
Sumas City& UGA
Rural and Resource Lands
Total
Alternative 2 (County/City Scenario)
Population
Population
Share
Employment
Employment
Share
30,310
42.5%
19,384
59.9%
2,662
3.7%
450
1.4%
2,774
3.9%
1,092
3.4%
0
0.0%
1,200
3.7%
1,137
1.6%
350
1.1 %
1,408
2.0%
317
1.0%
10,961
15.4%
3,337
10.3%
10,060
14.1 %
2,083
6.4%
995
1.4%
232
0.7%
1,000
1.4%
500
1.5%
10.000
14.0%
3.403
10.5%
71,307 100.0% 32,348 100.0%
2
Bellingham City & UGA
Birch Bay UGA
Blaine City & UGA
Cherry Point UGA
Columbia Valley UGA
Everson City & UGA
Ferndale City & UGA
Lynden City & UGA
Nooksack City & UGA
Sumas City & UGA
Rural and Resource Lands
Total
Alternative 3 (Technical Report High)
Population
Employment
Population
Share
Employment
Share
36,462
42.4%
23,642
62.5%
3,490
4.1%
194
0.5%
4,186
4.9%
1,092
2.9%
0
0.0%
769
2.0%
1,492
1.7%
21
0.1 %
1,408
1.6%
317
0.8%
10,961
12.8%
3,337
8.8%
10,060
11.7%
2,803
7.4%
531
0.6%
124
0.3%
1,052
1.2%
233
0.6%
16,260
18.9%
5,302
14.0%
85,902 100.0% 37,834 100.0%
The County Council has broad discretion to select population and employment
projections for the Comprehensive Plan update within the range of growth
alternatives studied in the EIS.
Non -Binding Multi -Jurisdictional Resolution
A "Non -Binding Multi -Jurisdictional Resolution" is being developed for consideration
by the County Council and City Councils. A similar resolution was approved in the
2016 Comp Plan update process (Resolution 2014-013).
Staff is asking for County Council direction on the Birch Bay, Cherry Point, Columbia
Valley and Rural projections at the October 8, 22, and 29 meetings.
The Cities are working on projections for their respective UGAs in October. In
November, PDS would take the County and City projections to the Planning
Commission. After that, the Non -Binding Multi -Jurisdictional Resolutions would
come before the County Council and City Councils for review. Final growth
projections would ultimately be adopted in the Comprehensive Plan by the County
Council (the State deadline for adopting the Comp Plan update is December 31,
2025).
Current Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan
Comprehensive Plan Chapter 2 includes Policy 2DD-1, which requires the County to:
... compare nonurban population growth trends with the adopted nonurban
population growth projection. If the trend over five years indicates that
nonurban growth is significantly higher than adopted projections, the County
shall take action to address the discrepancy. Actions may include changing
the allocation of the projected population growth during the comprehensive
plan update required per RCW 36.70A.130(1), or changing development
regulations to limit growth outside the urban growth areas. In addition, as
the County and cities review the capacity for growth in the urban growth
3
areas, the county should coordinate with the cities to ensure that policies are
in place that are consistent with encouraging growth in the urban areas and
reducing demand for development in rural areas (emphasis added).
Chapter 1 of the current Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (p. 1-7) allocates
growth of 11,217 people or 16% of the future countywide population growth to
areas outside UGAs (Rural and Resource Lands) and 84% to cities and UGAs. This
equates to growth of about 488 people per year outside UGAs.
According to analysis by the State Office of Financial Management (OFM) and the
Puget Sound Partnership shown in the table below, 86% of the countywide growth
from 2017-2023 was accommodated in cities and UGAs and 14% outside UGAs
since the current Comprehensive Plan targets were adopted in 2016.
100%
90%
N
Cal 80%
70%
60%
L
50%
0
0 40%
6
= 30%
m
20%
a
10%
0%
2011 - 2016
100%
93%
92%
89%
92%
93%
72%
41%
44%
2017 - 2023
''
''
i'
Change
-1%
-0%
-4%
-3%
-11%
-15%
+5%
+8%
-12%
pr
c
�Q
,q,
■2011 —2016
■ 2017 — 2023
1
18% 39% 6%
Source: Puget Sound Partnership, Appendix: Tracking Urban Growth Across the Puget
Sound: Findings for Whatcom County (2024)
Past Growth in Rural and Resource Lands
As indicated in the October 2, 2024 staff memo, the rate of population growth
in the Rural areas and Resource Lands has steadily slowed over the last several
decades, as shown below.
4
Population Growth in Rural and Resource Lands (1990-2020)
Average
Average
Share of
Annual
Annual
Countywide
Growth for
Growth for
Growth
Growth for
Year
Population
Decade
Decade
Rate
Decade
1990
45,321
2000
56,775
11,454
1,145
2.3%
29.3%
2010
64,862
8,087
809
1.3%
23.6%
2020
69,821
4,959
496
0.7%
19.3%
Source: Population data from 1990 and 2000 is from the Whatcom County Population and Employment
Projections and Urban Growth Area Allocations Phase/ Technical Report (BERK, 2013, p. 9). Population data for
2010 and 2020 is derived from the State Office of Financial Management's Small Area Estimates Program.
According to the Technical Report, which used data from the State Office of
Financial Management (OFM), areas outside UGAs experienced 18.9% of the
countywide growth between 2013 and 2023 (p. 10) and, as previously indicated by
OFM, the share of growth in rural and resource lands fell even further to 14% of
countywide growth from 2017-2023.
Council Motion / Discussion / PDS Response
The County Council Committee of the Whole passed the following motion on
October 22, 2024:
Have Planning and Development Services plan to shift some of those 10,000
[population] that are currently assigned for LAMIRDS and the rural area to
other locations.
Prior to the motion, there was Council discussion of selecting a growth target of 300
people per year in the Rural areas (equating to approximately 6,600 persons over
the 22-year planning period).
Based upon the motion passed, PDS would suggest reducing the population
growth projection for Rural and Resource Lands from 10,000 to no lower
than 9,000 for the planning period (2023-2045). This would equate to growth
of 409 people per year in these areas. It would be below historic rural growth
trends in these areas. The goal being to select a future non-UGA growth
target that is not likely to be "significantly" exceeded during the next
planning period. If it were, it would trigger Policy 2DD-1 and the County would
face having to "take action to address the discrepancy" and likely limit growth
outside of UGAs in subsequent years.
Based upon existing Policy 2DD-1, the County must take action if future Rural
growth "significantly" exceeds the projection in the Comprehensive Plan. Potential
actions may include:
1. Changing the allocation of the projected population growth during the
comprehensive plan update required per RCW 36.70A.130(1);
5
2. Changing development regulations to limit growth outside the urban growth
areas; and
3. The County and cities reviewing the capacity for growth in the urban growth
areas, the county coordinating with the cities to ensure that policies are in
place that are consistent with encouraging growth in the urban areas and
reducing demand for development in rural areas.
There's always the option of simply changing the Rural allocations at a later date to
reflect the growth that has already happened (# 1 above). However, under House
Bill 1220 and related state guidance on planning for affordable housing across all
household income levels, the Growth Management Act now requires a county -wide
process to allocate housing at the various income bands to the UGAs and Rural
areas. Changing the Rural allocation would modify how many housing units each
city and UGA must accommodate at the various income bands. Therefore, any
future change to the Rural allocation would involve discussion with the cities to
ensure our respective comprehensive plans are coordinated and consistent.
Another action mentioned in Policy 2DD-1 is to change development regulations to
limit growth in Rural areas (# 2 above). This could include downzoning. For
example, the EIS will include mitigating measures to potentially downzone "Rural
Study Areas" (lands zoned R5A or R10A that have agricultural significance), further
restricting land division. Rezoning other areas could also be considered as well as
instituting a moratorium on subdivisions outside of UGAs. It should be noted that
downzoning to reduce land divisions in Rural areas would not prevent development
on the many existing legal lots in these areas. If rural growth were to significantly
exceed the final rural population projection targets adopted by the County Council,
then slowing development on existing lots in Rural areas may require additional
measures such as capping or rationing the number of building permits that can be
issued each year or instituting moratoriums on the issuance of residential building
permits outside of UGAs. Any such proposed measure brings risk and would
require close consultation with the County's legal counsel. Budget implications of
reduced permit fee revenue should also be considered.
The final action mentioned is working with the cities to encourage growth in UGAs
(# 3 above). Local governments can do a number of things to encourage growth in
urban areas such as provide adequate land supply through zoning, plan and
construct infrastructure to support development, and facilitate annexation of land in
UGAs. At the current time, all seven cities have policies that generally do not allow
extension of public water and sewer outside city limits prior to annexation. There is
concern that when a city extends public water and sewer for development in the
UGA (outside city limits) it may reduce the incentive for property owners in these
areas to petition for annexation at a later date. However, the State Legislature has
amended annexation statutes over the last 15 years to allow alternative annexation
methods such as when the city, county, and fire district enter into an interlocal
agreement for annexation (a property owner petition is not required).
Based on the new housing planning requirements by household income band under
House Bill 1220 adopted in 2021 and the implementation progress report
requirements adopted under House Bill 1241 in 2022, PDS will be reviewing and
likely proposing revisions to Policy 2DD-1 as part of the 2025 Comprehensive Plan
update process to reflect these new requirements.
C1
Finally, the Council asks PDS to shift some of the future population growth in Rural
areas (10,000 people) to other locations. We would note that the State OFM's
middle population projection is for total countywide growth of 56,915 people over
the planning period (2023-2045). Pursuant to RCW 43.62.035, the OFM's middle
projection represents the "most likely population projection for the county."
If the Rural population allocation were reduced from 10,000 to 9,000, it would
result in a total countywide growth projection of 70,307 under EIS Alternative # 2.
This would still represent countywide population growth of 13,392 more than the
OFM's most likely projection. If cities want to split up the 1,000 people reduction in
UGAs, that would be fine. However, if they don't, the EIS Alternative 2 Countywide
growth projection would still be above the OFM most likely projection.
With the change to the Rural projection (outside UGAs), the proposed population
and employment growth projections are shown below.
Population Growth Proposal
Area Tech Report Tech Report Tech Report County Notes on Initial County
Low Middle High PDS PDS Proposal
Proposal
Birch Bay UGA 1,555 2,313 3,490 2,662 Between Tech Report Middle and High Scenarios
Continuation of 2013-23 trend
Cherry Point UGA 0 0 0 O N/A, Industrial UGA
Columbia Valley UGA 665 988 1,492 1,137 Between Tech Report Middle and High Scenarios
Continuation of 2013-23 trend
Outside UGAs 7,243 10,773 16,260 9,000 Below Tech Report Middle Scenario
Employment Growth Proposal
Area Tech Report Tech Report Tech Report County Notes on Initial County
Low Middle High PDS PDS Proposal
Proposal
Birch Bay UGA 80
Cherry Point UGA 316
Columbia Valley UGA 9
Outside UGAs 2,180
Next Steps
124 194 450 Above Tech Report High Scenario
Greater jobs/housing balance
493 769 1,200 Above Tech Report High Scenario
13 21 350 Above Tech Report High Scenario
Greater jobs/housing balance
3,403 5,302 3,403 Tech Report Middle Scenario
We would like to discuss PDS' initial population and employment proposals for the
Birch Bay, Cherry Point, Columbia Valley, and Rural/Resource Lands at the Council's
special meeting on October 29 to receive direction on the proposals.
7
These preliminary population and employment growth projections from the County,
along with growth proposals from the Cities for City UGAs, would then go to the
County Planning Commission. The Commission would hold a public hearing and
issue recommendations. The growth projections would come back to Council in the
form of a draft non -binding multi -jurisdictional resolution.
Thank you for your consideration of this matter. We look forward to discussing it
with you.
H.,