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HomeMy WebLinkAboutord2023-010File ID: File Created: AB2022-641 11/02/2022 Whatcom County Agenda Bill Master Report File Number: AB2022-641 Version: Entered by: maamot@co.whatcom.wa.us COUNTY COURTHOUSE 311 Grand Avenue, Ste #105 Bellingham, WA 98225-4038 (360) 778-5010 Status: Adopted Department: Planning and Development Services Department File Type: Ordinance Requiring a Public Hearing Assigned to: Agenda Date: Council 03/21/2023 Primary Contact Email: maamot@co.whatcom.wa.us TITLE FOR AGENDA ITEM: Ordinance adopting the Buildable Lands Report SUMMARY STATEMENT OR LEGAL NOTICE LANGUAGE: Final Action: 03/21/2023 Enactment#: ORD 2023-010 Ordinance adopting the Buildable Lands Report 2022 Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program (issued July 7, 2022, revised February 27, 2023), concluding that the review and evaluation required by the Growth Management Act (RCW 36.70A.215) has occurred, concluding that "reasonable measures" are required for the Birch Bay, Cherry Point, and Columbia Valley urban growth areas, and concluding that "reasonable measures" are not required for any other lands in unincorporated Whatcom County. The Buildable Lands Report indicates that reasonable measures are also needed in the City of Bellingham and the City of Blaine. HISTORY OF LEGISLATIVE FILE Date: Acting Body: Action: Sent To: 11/22/2022 Council REFERRED TO Council Planning and COMMITTEE Development Committee Aye: 7 Buchanan, Byrd, Donovan, Elenbaas, Frazey, Galloway, and Kershner Nay: 0 Absent: 0 12/06/2022 Council WITHDRAWN Aye: 6 Buchanan, Byrd, Donovan, Elenbaas, Frazey, and Galloway Whatcom County Page 1 Printed on 3/22/2023 Agenda Bill Master Report Continued (AB2022-641) Nay: 0 Absent: Kershner 03/07/2023 Council SUBSTITUTE INTRODUCED Council FOR PUBLIC HEARING Aye: 7 Buchanan, Byrd, Donovan, Elenbaas, Frazey, Galloway, and Kershner Nay: 0 Absent: O 03/21/2023 Council ADOPTED Attachments: Whatcom County Aye: 7 Buchanan, Byrd, Donovan, Elenbaas, Frazey, Galloway, and Kershner Nay: 0 Absent: O Staff Memo (Feb 28, 2023), Substitute Ordinance for 3.7.2023 Introduction with staff change in Finding 1, Proposed Ordinance for 3.7.2023 Introduction, Planning Commission Findings Page2 Printed on 3/2212023 ORDINANCE NO. 2023-010 ------- ADOPTING THE BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT 2022 WHEREAS, The Whatcom County Planning Commission held a public hearing and issued recommendations on the Buildable Lands Report; and WHEREAS, The County Council considered Planning Commission recommendations; WHEREAS, The County Council held a public hearing; and WHEREAS, The County Council hereby adopts the following findings of fact: FINDINGS OF FACT 1. The Buildable Lands Report 2022 -Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program (July 7, 2022, revised February 27, 2023) recognizes that housing availability and housing affordability are highly significant issues impacting our community. 2. Whatcom County recognizes that the Buildable Lands Report does not address the issue of housing affordability and that there remain significant concerns regarding housing availability. Additional work that revisits the estimates of supply and demand that are feasible, realistic, and consistent with current regulatory requirements and infrastructure are needed and will be reviewed in the 2025 comprehensive plan updates. Specifically, land supply will need to be carefully reviewed to account for land constrained by legal impediments, lack of infrastructure, and critical area restrictions. Additionally, infrastructure improvements including transportation, public water, and sewer improvements will need to be included in capital facility plans to accommodate forecasted growth. And, as required by Engrossed Second Substitute House Bill 1220, jurisdictions will need to plan for and accommodate housing affordable to all income segments of the community. 3. The proposal is to adopt the Buildable Lands Report 2022 -Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program (July 7, 2022, revised February 27, 2023). 4. The SEPA Official determined on July 19, 2022 that adoption of the Buildable Lands Report 2022 -Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program is categorically exempt from SEPA review under WAC 197-11-800(17) as information collection and research. 5. Notice of the Planning Commission hearing was posted on the County website on September 30, 2022. 6. Notice of the Planning Commission hearing was published in the Bellingham Herald on September 30, 2022. 7. Notice ofthe Planning Commission hearing was sent to the County's email list on September 30, 2022. Page 1 of 12 8. The Planning Commission held a public hearing and recommended that the County Council adopt the Buildable Lands Report 2022 -Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program on October 13, 2022. 9. The Growth Management Act "Review and Evaluation Program" (buildable land) requirements became applicable to Whatcom County and the cities when the State Legislature adopted Engrossed Second Substitute Bill 5254 in 2017. 10. The Growth Management Act's Review and Evaluation Program requirements (RCW 36.70A.215) include updating county-wide planning policies, developing a buildable lands program methodology, data collection, reviewing achieved densities, evaluating land suitable for development and issuing a Buildable Lands Report. The information contained in the Buildable Lands Report will help to inform the next update of the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan, which is due by June 30, 2025. 11. In evaluating land suitable for development, RCW 36. 70A.215{3)(b)(ii) requires jurisdictions to develop a "reasonable land market supply factor" consistent with the Review & Evaluation Program Buildable Lands Guidelines {2018) published by the Department of Commerce ("Guidance"). 12. The land market supply factor is incorporated to account for the reality that not all developable land will actually be developed within the planning timeframe. 13. WAC 365-196-310(2)(e) authorizes jurisdictions to consider unique local conditions when establishing a market supply factor. Including relevant local factors is vital to ensuring that the Buildable Lands Report presents a realistic picture of development within the remaining planning period. 14. The Department of Commerce's Guidance also expressly encourages cities to adopt a market supply factor that reflects "uniquely local conditions" to "avoid overestimation of effective buildable lands capacity" (p. 47). 15. On March 24, 2022, the City of Bellingham released a Technical Memo describing the analysis used to develop the land market factor utilized for developable lands within Bellingham. 16. The County's consultant held interviews with representatives of each jurisdiction and several key community stakeholders. This information was compiled in a Stakeholder Interview Summary Whatcom County Review and Evaluation (Buildable Lands) Program (CAI, May 2019). 17. The County's consultant conducted research on topics with important implications for the buildable lands report, including local regulations, infrastructure, housing affordability, and growth trends. This included reviewing relevant portions of the Revised Code of Page 2 of 12 Washington and Washington Administrative Code. This information was compiled in a Background Information and Key Issues Report (CAI, June 2019). 18. Whatcom County and the cities, with the assistance of a consultant, developed the Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program Public Participation Plan (April 2020) and have followed that Plan. 19. Whatcom County and the cities developed draft Countywide Planning Policies establishing the Review and Evaluation Program. The Whatcom County Planning Commission held a public hearing on these Countywide Planning Policies on September 10, 2020. The Whatcom County Council held a public hearing and adopted the Countywide Planning Policies on February 9, 2021 (Ordinance 2021-003). 20. Whatcom County and the cities, with the assistance of a consultant, drafted the Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program Methodology to implement the 2017 state amendments to the Growth Management Act. Stakeholders reviewed and provided comments on preliminary draft versions of this Methodology in 2021. Modifications to the draft Methodology were made based upon stakeholder comments in 2021. The Whatcom County Planning Commission held a public hearing on the draft Methodology on October 28, 2021. The County Council and city councils were briefed on the draft Methodology in 2021-2022. The Whatcom County Planning Director approved the Methodology on February 10, 2022. 21. Whatcom County and the cities, with the assistance of a consultant, developed Data Reporting Tool templates for collection of data on development and local government ordinances over the review period. The templates are intended to facilitate uniform collection of data by the County and cities. 22. The County and cities entered information in the Data Reporting Tools, including information on building permits and plats issued between April 1, 2016 and March 31, 2021. The Data Reporting Tools calculate achieved densities over the five-year review period. 23. Whatcom County and the cities, with the assistance of a consultant, developed Suitable Land Tool templates for estimating the amount of land available for development over the remaining portion of the planning period. The templates are intended to facilitate uniform evaluation of land supply by the County and cities. 24. The County and cities entered information in the Suitable Land Tools to estimate the capacity of land suitable for development to accommodate population and employment growth over the remaining portion of the existing planning period (2021-2036). The Suitable Land Tools compare the land capacity to the projected population and employment growth to estimate whether there will be a surplus or deficit of land to accommodate projected growth (2021-2036). Page 3 of 12 25. The City of Bellingham and the County shared draft Data Reporting Tool and Suitable Land Tool spreadsheets at a Buildable Lands -Virtual Stakeholder Workshop on February 9, 2022. 26. Whatcom County and the cities issued the Bui/dable Lands Report 2022-Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program on July 7, 2022 and revised this Report on February 27, 2023 (the revisions primarily relate to the Jurisdiction Profile for the Bellingham UGA). This Report summarizes and analyzes information from the Data Reporting Tools, Suitable Land Tools, and other sources to meet the requirements of the Growth Management Act. 27. The Buildable Lands Report 2022-Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program states that there is sufficient suitable land to accommodate the countywide population projection contained in the current Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 1), which allocated growth through the year 2036. 28. The Buildable Lands Report 2022 -Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program states that each Urban Growth Area (UGA), with the exception of the Birch Bay UGA, has sufficient suitable land to accommodate the UGA population projections contained in the current Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 1), which allocated growth through the year 2036. 29. The Buildable Lands Report 2022 -Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program states that there is sufficient suitable land to accommodate the countywide employment projection contained in the current Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 1), which allocated growth through the year 2036. 30. The Buildable Lands Report 2022 -Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program states that each UGA has sufficient suitable land to accommodate the UGA employment projections contained in the current Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 1), which allocated growth through the year 2036. 31. The Buildable Lands Report 2022 -Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program shows that reasonable measures are needed for the Birch Bay, Cherry Point, and Columbia Valley UGAs pursuant to RCW 36.70A.215.44. 32. For the Birch Bay UGA, reasonable measures are needed to address: a. Achieved residential densities between 2016 and 2021 were below the planned densities in Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan Chapter 2 (Goal 2P); b. Land capacity to accommodate the population projection adopted in Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan Chapter 1; and c. Land capacity to accommodate single family housing needs as set forth in Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan Chapter 3. Page 4 of 12 33. For the Cherry Point UGA, reasonable measures are needed to address employment growth because growth that occurred between 2016 and 2021 was significantly below the planned growth projected in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 1). Employment growth would have exceeded the planned growth, except that a major employer shut down in 2020. 34. For the Columbia Valley UGA, reasonable measures are needed to address employment growth because growth that occurred between 2016 and 2021 was significantly below the planned growth projected in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 1). 35. Reasonable measures are not required for any other lands in unincorporated Whatcom County. 36. The suitable lands analysis is a planning level tool using model assumption and values informed by development data from the 2016-2021 evaluation period. It is not derived from an in-depth, parcel-by-parcel assessment of developability within the remainder of the 20-year planning period. 37. There are large blocks of property in Bellingham that would benefit from an in-depth, individual, parcel-by-parcel assessment of developability within the current planning period. This level of review and analysis has not been completed in Bellingham and is beyond the scope of this Build able Lands Analysis. In the land capacity analysis for the 2025 Comprehensive Plan update, Bellingham should coordinate further with owners of large undeveloped land holdings to document and evaluate challenges and barriers associated with development. Findings from these efforts should consider legal impediments and be compared against deductions for critical areas, buffers, future infrastructure, and market factors already incorporated into development capacity estimates to determine if further deductions are appropriate. 38. As stated in the Bellingham jurisdictional profile, the capacity for single-family housing to be built during the remaining planning period is minimally adequate to meet the target established in the current Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 3-Housing, Chart 3). As such, any overestimation of supply in Bellingham's land capacity analysis could lead to a shortfall in that category. Further, the Bellingham analysis shows that capacity for housing offering ownership opportunities is very limited. As seen in Exhibit 16, while 64% of the City's developable residential land is zoned for single-family development, it accounts for only 26% of estimated future housing production. Whereas the 36% of residential land zoned for multi-family development accounts for 74% of estimated future production. 39. Following adoption of the 2016 Comprehensive Plan, Bellingham has undertaken numerous initiatives to address housing availability and affordability. These initiatives include measures identified by the Department of Commerce's Guidance as reasonable measures, including without limitation encouraging infill and redevelopment, allowing Page 5 of 12 density bonuses, rezoning, and encouraging developers to reduce off-street surface parking. 40. Despite the many reasonable measures Bellingham has already undertaken, housing affordability and housing supply remain critical concerns that warrant adopting additional reasonable measures. The Bellingham jurisdictional profile in the Buildable Lands Report includes a variety of reasonable measures aimed at addressing housing supply, affordability, and ownership opportunities. 41. The Growth Management Act requires Whatcom County and the cities to update their respective Comprehensive Plans by 2025 (RCW 36.70A.130), in part to accommodate projected population and employment growth for the new planning period through the year 2045. 42. Growth Management Act Planning Goal 4, which guides the development and adoption of comprehensive plans and associated regulations, is to: Plan for and accommodate housing affordable to all economic segments of the population of this state, promote a variety of residential densities and housing types, and encourage preservation of existing housing stock (RCW 36. 70A.020{4)). 43. The Growth Management Act includes mandatory elements that must be included in a local comprehensive plan, including a housing element (RCW 36.70A.070{2)). 44. The Washington State Legislature passed Engrossed Second Substitute House Bill 1220, which became effective on July 25, 2021. This legislation enacted significant amendments to RCW 36.70A.070(2), requiring additional analysis and planning to address housing affordability in the 2025 comprehensive plan updates. 45. In 2017, the Washington State Legislature amended the requirements of the evaluation . program (Buildable Land Report) to include a "review and evaluation of ... infrastructure gaps (including but not limited to transportation, water, sewer, and stormwater)" (RCW 36. 70A.215{{3)(b )(i)). 46. The Growth Management Act requires the 2025 comprehensive plan periodic updates to address a number of things, including an inventory and analysis of existing and projected housing needs that identifies the number of housing units necessary to manage projected growth (provided by the department of commerce), preservation, improvement, and development of housing, sufficient land capacity, and adequate provisions for existing and projected needs of all economic segments of the community (RCW 36.70A.070(2)). Page 6 of 12 47. The Washington State Department of Commerce anticipates that the State Legislature will provide grants to local governments, including Whatcom County and the cities, to implement the expanded housing element requirements in RCW 36. 70A.070(2). The State anticipates these grants will be available July 1, 2023. 48. Whatcom County recognizes that housing availability and housing affordability are major issues in our community. 49. Detached single family median home prices for the cities and Whatcom County as a whole have risen as shown below. 2016 2022 Percentage Increase Bellingham $340,500 $680,000 99.71% Blaine $274,000 $536,000 95.62% Everson $308,500 $565,000 83.14% Ferndale $313,200 $630,000 101.15% Lynden $314,000 $595,000 89.49% Nooksack $262,000 $500,000 90.84% Sumas $219,000 $340,000 55.25% Whatcom County $315,000 $602,000 91.1% Source: Whatcom County Association of REALTORS/ Multiple Listing Service data. 50. A report entitled "Puget Sound Regional Council & Washington State Department of Commerce Housing Survey" (December 2022) indicates that respondents statewide and in Western Washington identified housing costs/rents and homelessness as the two most important problems facing Washington State today (p. 9). Statewide, 39% of respondents identified housing costs/rents and 39% identified homelessness as the most important issues. These percentages were slightly higher in Western Washington, where 40% of respondents identified housing costs/rents and 41% identified homelessness as the most important issues. 51. A report entitled "The Conspicuous Crisis: Addressing Housing Affordability in Washington" (Challenge Seattle, January 2023) states" ... Nearly ~1 million Washington households are cost-burdened, spending more than 30% of household income on housing-related costs ... While burden rate varies, affordability is a state-wide challenge . . . " (p. 5). Whatcom County has a high cost burden rate of 35.9% (p. 5). Page 7 of 12 52. Whatcom County recognizes that solutions to housing availability and housing affordability problems will require County government, city governments, the private sector, and other entities working to plan and provide for sufficient and affordable housing for the community. 53. Whatcom County recognizes that land capacity for housing is an important factor relating to housing availability and affordability. Additional land capacity can be provided by increasing densities (e.g. rezoning or amending the code to require minimum densities) and/or reconfiguring or expanding urban growth areas. 54. Whatcom County and the cities should evaluate increasing densities (e.g. rezoning or amending the code to require minimum densities) in urban growth areas, including land within city limits, to accommodate additional housing units. 55. The Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan anticipates that approximately 84% of population growth will occur in UGAs and about 16% outside UGAs in rural and resource lands. 56. There are 10 UGAs in Whatcom County. Seven of these UGAs are associated with cities and three are non-city UGAs (one of the non-city UGAs is Cherry Point, which does not accommodate residential development). 57. The Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan anticipates countywide population growth will occur in the following geographic areas: a. 74.4% in the seven city UGAs; b. 9.5% in the two non-city UGAs (Birch Bay and Columbia Valley); and c. 16.1% outside of UGAs (in rural and resource lands). 58. The seven city UGAs consist of the land in the city limits and surrounding land designated by the County for urban growth and annexation into the cities. The seven cities do not, as a general matter, allow extension of public water and sewer outside city limits anymore. County urban residential zoning in UGAs allows one dwelling unit/ten acres until public water and sewer are available. The reason for this restriction is to preserve land for urban density development once public water and sewer become available. As a practical matter, this means that new urban density residential developments will not occur in city UGAs until annexation takes place. 59. The Growth Management Act indicates that a purpose of the Buildable Lands Program is, when necessary, to "Identify reasonable measures, other than adjusting urban growth areas, that will be taken to comply with the requirements of this chapter" (RCW 36. 70A.215{1)(b)). Page 8 of 12 60. However, population growth and housing allocations for the new planning period through the year 2045 will be adopted in the 2025 comprehensive plan update process. Accommodating the projected growth through the year 2045 will require a new land capacity analysis to evaluate each UGA's ability to accommodate this additional growth based on new population projections. The cities will make recommendations to the County as part of the 2025 comprehensive plan updates whether to expand their respective UGAs or not to accommodate this additional growth. The County Council makes the final decision on UGA expansions. 61. The Growth Management Act requires capital facility planning for transportation, public water, sewer, stormwater, schools, parks, and fire protection facilities in association with the 2025 comprehensive plan updates (RCW 36.70A.070(3) and (6)). 62. The Housing Memorandum: Issues Affecting Housing Availability and Affordability (State Department of Commerce, June 2019} indicates: ... Appropriate infrastructure of all types is perhaps the single most-important determinant of whether or not otherwise buildable land will be developed or redeveloped. Without appropriate connection and capacity for transportation, water, wastewater, and stormwater in particular, new development or redevelopment of land is extremely unlikely. Thus, lack of infrastructure renders land unavailable for development or redevelopment, limiting the supply of land and potentially driving up prices and costs (p. 59). 63. The Growth Management Act states "In general, cities are the units of local government most appropriate to provide urban governmental services ... " (RCW 36.70A.110(4)). It is essential that cities plan capital facilities to support housing growth. 64. Whatcom County is not a provider of public water and sewer, which are essential services for urban residential growth. Therefore, Whatcom County will work with water and sewer districts serving the Birch Bay and Columbia Valley UGAs to facilitate appropriate urban growth in these areas. 65. Factors under local government control affect housing production and affordability, such as land capacity, infrastructure, permit timelines, zoning, and complexity of regulations. Cities control these factors in their incorporated boundaries and, therefore, have a large influence on housing in Whatcom County. Whatcom County controls land use regulations and permitting in unincorporated areas, but is not a provider of public water and sewer. Additionally, the County has a responsibility under the Growth Management Act to protect rural character and conserve resource lands. Page 9 of 12 66. Factors beyond local government control also influence housing production and affordability. The Housing Memorandum: Issues Affecting Housing Availability and Affordability (State Department of Commerce, June 2019) identifies macroeconomic trends including employment, prices/inflation (material and labor costs), and interest rates, along with other factors, that affect housing production and affordability (p. 12). 67. Housing availability and affordability are issues of critical importance in Whatcom County. They are also issues in many other areas around the country. The Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University's The State of the Nation's Housing 2022 indicates that home prices in the U.S. have more than doubled from the 2012 low (following the Great Recession) to early 2022 (p. 9). Additionally, Harvard's report states" ... The national housing shortage is not just in affordable homes. According to Freddie Mac estimates, the short fall in market-rate housing both for sale and for rent amounts to some 3.8 million units ... " (p. 41). Harvard's report identifies factors under local control, such as land use regulations, along with other factors that have contributed to housing production and affordability issues. 68. Housing needs and affordability will be addressed in the 2025 Comprehensive Plan Update as required by the Growth Management Act. The 2025 Comprehensive Plan update will also "[p]lan for and accommodate housing affordable to all economic segments of the population ... promote a variety of residential densities and housing types, and encourage preservation of existing housing stock" as required by RCW 36. 70A.020(4). 69. The Buildable Lands Report 2022 -Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program provides an important analysis of development trends and characteristics in Whatcom County and its cities from 2016-2021. Based on the foregoing findings, the Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program provides important input moving forward with the 2025 comprehensive plan update process for the County and the cities, but should not be considered the sole source of information that the County and cities rely upon to plan for accommodating projected future growth. 70. All of the foregoing Recitals and Findings of Fact are legislative findings of the Whatcom County Council and are fully incorporated into the following ordinance as a material part thereof. Page 10 of 12 NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT ORDAINED by the Whatcom County Council that: Section 1. The review and evaluation required by the Growth Management Act has occurred and the Buildable Lands Report 2022 -Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program has been issued in accordance with RCW 36. 70A.215. Section 2. The Whatcom County Council hereby adopts the Buildable Lands Report 2022 - Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program (Exhibit A). Section 3. The Whatcom County Council has determined that reasonable measures are needed for the Birch Bay, Cherry Point, and Columbia Valley Urban Growth Areas (UGAs) pursuant to RCW 36.70A.215. Section 4. For the Birch Bay UGA reasonable measures are needed to address: • Achieved densities that occurred between 2016 and 2021 that were below the planned densities in Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan Chapter 2 (Goal 2P); • Land capacity to accommodate the population projection adopted in Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan Chapter 1; and • Land capacity to accommodate the single family housing need as set forth in Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan Chapter 3. Section 5. For the Cherry Point UGA reasonable measures are needed to address employment growth that occurred between 2016 and 2021 that was significantly below the planned growth projected in Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan Chapter 1. Employment growth would have exceeded the planned growth, except that a major employer shut down in 2020. Section 6. For the Columbia Valley UGA reasonable measures are needed to address employment growth that occurred between 2016 and 2021 that was significantly below the planned growth projected in Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan Chapter 1. Section 7. Reasonable measures are not needed for any other lands in unincorporated Whatcom County. Page 11 of 12 Section 8. The Clerk of the Council is hereby instructed to publish notice of the ordinance adopting the Buildable Lands Report 2022 -Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program pursuant to RCW 36.70A.290. Section 9. Adjudication of invalidity of any of the sections, clauses, or provisions of this ordinance shall not affect or impair the validity of the ordinance as a whole or any part thereof other than the part so declared to be invalid. ADOPTED this 21st day of March WHATCOM COUNTY COUNCIL Dana Brn0n,i~,a\:,ts}t~;µri~il Clerk (. ,:, 0 N APPROVED as to form: /s/ Karen Frakes Civil Deputy Prosecutor Date: 3/07/2023 2023. )(f Approved ( ) Denied ¥StJL Satpal Sidhu, County Executive Page 12 of 12 ~1µ1~3 ~~ Exhibit A Buildable Lands Report Buildable Lands Report 2022 July 7, 2022 (Revised February 27, 2023) ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Project Manager • Matt Aamot, Whatcom County Technical Committee • Greg Aucutt, City of Bellingham • Chris Behee, City of Bellingham • Jori Burnett, City of Ferndale (former member) • Michael, Cerbone, City of Ferndale • Heidi Gudde, City of Lynden • Eric Guida, Washington State Department of Commerce (former member) • Rollin Harper, Cities of Everson, Nooksack, and Sumas • Haylie Miller, City of Ferndale (former member) • Mark Personius, Whatcom County • Stacie Pratschner, City of Blaine • Valerie Smith, Washington State Department of Commerce • Dave Timmer, City of Lynden • Jennifer Noveck, Port of Bellingham Consultant Team Community Attributes, Inc. • Cassie Byerly • Kristina Gallant, AICP • Tyler Coyle • Michaela Jellicoe • Bryan Lobel • Chris Mefford • Ethan Schmidt • Elliot Weiss, AICP CONTENTS Introduction .................................................................................................................... 5 Background and Purpose ............................................................................................. 5 Methods ....................................................................................................................... 6 Organization of Report ................................................................................................. 6 Policy Framework ............................................................................................................ 7 Countywide Planning Policies ...................................................................................... 7 Population and Employment Growth Allocations ......................................................... 7 Methods ........................................................................................................................... 9 Data Sources ................................................................................................................ 9 Data Collection and Evaluation (2016-2021) ................................................................ 9 Review and Evaluation of Land Suitable for Development (2021-2036) ..................... 10 Countywide Findings ..................................................................................................... 16 Population & Employment Growth ............................................................................ 18 Development Activity ................................................................................................. 21 Planned and Achieved Densities ................................................................................ 24 Land Suitable for Development .................................................................................. 25 Inconsistencies and Reasonable Measures ................................................................. 27 Jurisdiction Profiles ...................................................................................................... 28 1. Bellingham UGA ................................................................................................. 29 2. Birch Bay UGA .................................................................................................... 48 3. Blaine UGA ......................................................................................................... 61 4. Cherry Point UGA ················································:·············································· 72 5. Columbia Valley UGA ......................................................................................... 78 6. Everson UGA ....................................................................................................... 89 7. Ferndale UGA ..................................................................................................... 99 8. Lynden UGA ...................................................................................................... 109 9. Nooksack UGA ....... : .......................................................................................... 120 10. Sumas UGA .................................................................................................... 130 Appendix A: Annexations ............................................................................................ 139 Appendix B: Urban Growth Area Changes .................................................................. 140 Appendix C: Zoning Map Changes ............................................................................... 141 WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 1 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Whatcom County Buildable Lands Report 2022 is the first report completed by the County and cities consistent with the requirements of the Review and Evaluation Program within Washington State's Growth Management Act (RCW 36. 70A.215). The purpose of this report is to assess how recent development in the cities and urban growth areas (UGAs) has compared with planning assumptions, targets, and objectives in adopted Countywide Planning Policies and comprehensive plans, and whether there are inconsistencies for the County and cities to address. The report assesses how much land is available to serve future growth, and whether it is sufficient to accommodate expected growth. Finally, the report provides basic information relating to development on rural and resource lands (areas outside UGAs). Population & Employment Growth From 2016-2021, new residential construction in Whatcom County and the cities accommodated an estimated 24% of the projected 20-year population growth for the planning period (2016 through 2036). The County and cities will need to accommodate another 46,240 persons for the remaining period 2021 through 2036. From 2016 to 2021, new commercial and industrial construction in Whatcom County and the cities accommodated an estimated 17% of the projected employment growth for the 20-year planning period, and will need to accommodate another 26,829 jobs by 2036. • Whatcom County contains 10 urban growth areas (UGAs). Seven UGAs represent future annexation areas for corresponding incorporated cities. Three are standalone UGAs, not associated with a city. • Whatcom County is projected to have 275,450 residents and 120,284 employees by 2036 with projected growth allocations of 60,565 for population and 32,219 for employment between 2016 and 2036. • New construction in Whatcom County and the cities accommodated an estimated 14,326 people (83% within UGAs) and 5,351 employees (93% within UGAs) from 2016-2021. • Whatcom County has an estimated 46,240 population growth and 26,829 employment growth remaining to accommodate between 2021 and 2036. Development Activity From 2016-2021, Whatcom County and the cities permitted 6,659 new housing units, averaging 1,332 per year. This average will need to increase to accommodate remaining projected population growth. Achieved densities in incorporated city UGA areas are exceeding planned densities, while achieved WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 2 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 commercial and industrial densities are lagging in some areas. The Jurisdiction Profiles section of this report contains UGA-level details on achieved densities for the period 2016-2021. • Whatcom County and the cities permitted a total of 6,659 housing units countywide between 2016 and 2021 (84% within the UGAs, 16% outside the UGAs). • On average countywide, the number of net new housing units permitted and built was 1,332 per year from 2016-2021. The jurisdictions will need to increase the average annual housing production to 1,478 units per year from 2021-2036 to accommodate remaining projected population growth. • Densities ranging from 4.4 to 11.5 dwelling units per acre were achieved for residential uses in incorporated areas and one dwelling unit per 3. 7 acres for Non-UGA areas. • Achieved residential densities in cities exceeded planned densities, while three unincorporated city UGAs had achieved densities that were lower than ultimate planned densities (as city water and sewer are typically not extended to new development outside city limits). Achieved commercial and industrial densities are lagging planned densities in several small cities. • For non-city UGAs, residential development in the Columbia Valley UGA exceeded the planned density while residential development in the Birch Bay UGA did not. Land Suitable for Development For the inaugural Review and Evaluation Period, it is estimated that Whatcom County UGAs have over 6,102 acres of net developable (vacant, partially-used, and underutilized) land to accommodate remaining projected population and employment growth from 2021-2036. The Jurisdiction Profiles section of this report contains UGA-level details on developable land and deductions. Appendices A through C document annexations, UGA changes, and zoning map changes for the period 2016-2021. • Whatcom County UGAs, which include cities, have estimated net land capacity for remaining population growth of 73,075 for the remainder of the 20-year planning period from 2021 to 2036, indicating an estimated population capacity surplus of 34,215. • Whatcom County UGAs, which include cities, have estimated net land capacity for remaining employment growth of 41,057 for the remainder of the 20-year planning period from 2021 to 2036, indicating an estimated employment capacity surplus of 16,652. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 3 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Inconsistencies and Reasonable Measures On a county-wide basis, surplus capacity exists to accommodate both remaining projected population and employment growth for the rest of the 20-year planning period through 2036. In addition, planned residential densities in the cities are being achieved. When planned densities are not being achieved, there is not sufficient capacity to accommodate remaining projected population or employment growth, or development patterns are not occurring as planned, Whatcom County and the cities will work together to determine if reasonable measures are necessary to address the issue, with the jurisdiction making the final decision on reasonable measures. A list of potential reasonable measures that jurisdictions may consider, if needed, are documented in the Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program Methodology (February 10, 2022), Appendix A. The Jurisdiction Profiles address whether reasonable measures may be needed for individual UGAs. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 4 ,JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 INTRODUCTION Background and Purpose The Review and Evaluation Program, which is also known as the Buildable Lands program, is part of Washington State's Growth Management Act (GMA). The program requires that certain counties and cities review the growth and development that has occurred within their jurisdictions since the last updates to their State mandated comprehensive plans. Past growth is compared with the growth and development assumptions, targets, and objectives that are contained in the current plans. Where actual growth diverges from growth and development assumptions, the State calls on the jurisdictions to implement "reasonable measures" in the next comprehensive plan updates to maintain consistency with GMA requirements (RCW 36. 70A.215(1)). Under the GMA, the deadline for the next comprehensive plan updates is June 30, 2025. The GMA's Review and Evaluation Program was established in 1997 and originally applied to all jurisdictions within six counties. The first major revision to the program was completed in 2017, when the State Legislature passed Engrossed Second Substitute Bill (E2SSB) 5254. As part of this revision, Whatcom County was added as the seventh Buildable Lands county. The Buildable Lands Report 2022 is the County and cities first report responding to the review and evaluation requirements of GMA. The report reviews development data from 2016-2021, and evaluates capacity to serve remaining growth through 2036, the planning horizon from the most recently adopted comprehensive plan. The report summarizes development data at the city, UGA and County level to answer the following questions: • What is the actual density and type of housing (single family and multifamily) that has been built in Whatcom County's UGAs? Approximately how much population does it support? Are urban densities being achieved? • How much land has been developed for commercial and industrial uses? Approximately how much employment does it support? • How does this development activity compare with growth and development assumptions, targets, and objectives in the comprehensive plans? • How much population and employment growth remains to be accommodated by 2036? Is there sufficient land and densities in UGAs to accommodate planned growth? WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 5 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Whatcom County and the cities have updated the inventory of vacant, partially-used, and underutilized land in accordance with the Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program Methodology. This is the supply of land available to serve future growth. Using recent achieved densities and other data as a guide, the report estimates how much population and employment this land can support. This analysis is used to answer the following question: is there enough suitable land to accommodate population and employment growth through 2036? Where inconsistencies are identified, the report will discuss whether "reasonable measures" may be needed to address inconsistencies in the upcoming comprehensive plan update cycle. Ultimately, the County and each city will individually determine whether reasonable measures are required for their jurisdiction. Methods The methods for this analysis were developed based on the Department of Commerce's 2018 Buildable Lands Guidelines and the Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program Methodology. A technical committee with representatives of the County and each city (City/County Planner Group) met regularly to discuss and establish key elements of the program. Program methods are summarized in the "Methods" section, with full detail provided in the Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program Methodology. The suitable lands analysis is a planning level tool using model assumption and values informed by development data from the 2016-2021 evaluation period. It is not derived from an in-depth, parcel-by-parcel assessment of developability within the remainder of the 20-year planning period. Organization of Report This report is organized into the following sections: • Policy Framework. Explains key Whatcom County policies relevant to the program, including Countywide Planning Policies and growth allocations. • Methods. Explains how data was gathered and analyzed for this report, key assumptions, and how these methods were developed. • Countywide Findings. Summarizes the ability of UGAs and other areas to accommodate adopted population and employment allocations through 2036. Seven of the ten UGAs correspond to cities. • Jurisdiction Profiles. Provides detailed findings for recent development activity and land suitable for development at the UGA and zoning designation level. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 6 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 POLICY FRAMEWORK Countywide Planning Policies The County and cities worked together to develop Countywide Planning Policies to establish and guide the Review and Evaluation Program, as required by RCW 36.70A.215. In summary, Countywide Planning Policies Q.1 -Q.8: • Indicate that the County and cities will cooperate to implement and maintain the Review and Evaluation Program; • Set forth the purposes of the program; • Address the Review and Evaluation Program Methodology; and • Indicate that the County and cities will prepare a Buildable Lands Report, collect and analyze development data, and discuss potential reasonable measures if there are inconsistencies between actual development patterns and assumptions contained in the County or city comprehensive plans. The County and cities also developed Countywide Planning Policies R.1 -R.4 relating to Dispute Resolution Procedures. Population and Employment Growth Allocations A key outcome of the Review and Evaluation Program is estimating population and employment growth and determining if population and employment capacity are consistent with adopted growth targets. Whatcom County has adopted population projections by UGA and for areas outside of UGAs (Non-UGAs) through 2036 in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan, Chapter 1 (page 1-7). Total Whatcom County population is projected at 275,450 by 2036. The Comprehensive Plan also adopts employment projections for 2036 (page 1-8), totaling 120,284 by 2036. For the purposes of the Review and Evaluation Program analysis, population and employment growth projections have been pro-rated to the 2016-2036 timeframe to fit the Review and Evaluation period (Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2). Population and employment growth estimates for 2016-2021 are subtracted from total projected growth by UGA for 2016-2036 to estimate the remaining population and employment growth to be accommodated during the review period (2021-2036). This remaining growth to be accommodated is then compared to estimated population and employment capacity to understand if there are sufficient land and densities to accommodate planned growth. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 7 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 1. Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan Population (2013-2036) and Pro-Rated Population Growth (2016-2036) 2013 2036 Population 2016-2036 UGA Population Allocation Population Growth Bellingham 92,660 123,710 27,000 Birch Bay 7,540 12,822 4,593 Blaine 5,171 9,585 3,838 Columbia Valley 3,103 4,448 1,170 Everson 2,665 3,907 1,080 Ferndale 12,758 19,591 5,942 Lynden 12,872 19,275 5,568 Nooksack 1,435 2,425 861 Sumas 1,449 2,323 760 UGA Total 139,696 198,129 50,811 Non-UGA 66,104 77,321 9,754 County Total 205,800 275,450 60,565 Sources: Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 1, page 1-7); Whatcom County, 2021. Notes: The Cherry Point UGA is excluded from this table as no population growth is projected for the UGA. Exhibit 2. Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan Employment (2013-2036) and Pro-Rated Employment Growth (2016-2036) 2013 2036 Employment E 201 1 6•2036 t UGA . mp oymen Employment Allocation Growth Bellingham 52,359 75,000 19,688 Birch Bay 595 1,140 474 Blaine 3,062 5,159 1,823 Cherry Point 1,993 2,883 774 Columbia Valley 85 444 312 Everson 710 1,312 523 Ferndale 5,372 9,372 3,478 Lynden 4,946 7,103 1,876 Nooksack 254 369 100 Sumas 700 1,145 387 UGA Total 70,076 103,927 29,436 Non-UGA 13,156 16,357 2,783 County Total 83,232 120,284 32,219 Sources: Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 1, page 1-8); Whatcom County, 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 8 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 METHODS This section summarizes the principal methods, data sources, and key assumptions developed for Whatcom County's Buildable Lands Report 2022. The complete methodology is documented in the Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program Methodology. Data Sources Whatcom County and the cities collected key data on development in their jurisdiction between 2016 and 2021. Each jurisdiction submitted data and analysis to Whatcom County, who facilitated the overall Buildable Lands process. Whatcom County gathered data for unincorporated UGAs and Non- UGAs (rural areas and resource lands). Jurisdictions collected the following data for this Review and Evaluation Program: 1. Development activity, sourced primarily from city and County building permitting and platting data. 2. Land use and zoning changes, from local ordinances relating to annexations, changes to UGAs and zoning map changes. 3. Changes to development and environmental regulations, from city and County ordinances relating to zoning, development codes and critical areas regulation. 4. Parcel data, from County Assessor's real property and parcel files and related extracts, to tabulate and classify types of land available for future development. 5. Other documentation, such as changes to planned capital facilities and any adopted reasonable measures that could impact land capacity. Data Collection and Evaluation (2016-2021) Data collection is only required to the extent necessary to determine compliance with RCW 36. 70A.215 (including achieved densities and the remaining quantity and types of land available for development during the current planning period). The County and cities entered data into spreadsheet-based Data Reporting Tools for each jurisdiction to capture all required data between April 1, 2016 and March 31, 2021. City data is maintained separately from unincorporated UGA data as building permit records for unincorporated UGAs are maintained and administered by the County and urban development is not generally anticipated to occur in unincorporated city UGAs until they are annexed. The Data Reporting Tools facilitate the collection, organization, and analysis of permitting, platting, and other data from each city and the County. The data are used to calculate and compare actual achieved densities for the reporting period (2016-2021) with planned densities. The Data Reporting WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 9 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Tools estimate population and employment growth between 2016-2021 and estimate population and employment growth for the remainder of the 20-year planning period of the current County Comprehensive Plan (2021-2036). In looking forward to subsequent updates, additional information on planned future capital facilities, regulatory updates, and any previously adopted reasonable measures will be collected to facilitate tracking by the County and cities. Countywide annexations, UGA changes, and zoning map changes are also inventoried for the reporting period (Appendix A through C). Data should be collected annually for subsequent Review and Evaluation Periods. Review and Evaluation of Land Suitable for Development (2021-2036) The GMA requires Whatcom County and cities to identify land suitable for development or redevelopment and determine whether there is sufficient suitable land to accommodate future growth. This section outlines the steps and methods used to complete this Buildable Lands analysis. The basic steps for cities and UGAs are as follows: 1. Review Assumptions and Achieved Densities 2. Assemble Net Developable Land Inventory 3. Estimate Population and Employment Capacity 4. Evaluate Land Capacity Sufficiency The County and cities entered data and assumptions into spreadsheet-based Suitable Land Tools for each UGA to estimate population and employment capacity, compare that capacity to growth allocations, and evaluate whether land capacity is sufficient to accommodate growth over the remaining portion of the planning period (2021-2036). If the analysis identifies shortfalls in land capacity, or if recent development has diverged from planning assumptions, targets, and objectives there is an additional requirement to determine if reasonable measures are required to improve consistency. Review Assumptions and Achieved Densities Several key components of the Buildable Lands analysis rely on developing assumptions and calculating the achieved net density of new residential, commercial, and industrial development in cities and UGAs during the reporting period (2016-2021). Two primary steps in the process are: • Developing assumptions for occupancy rates and average household sizes (for residential development) and occupancy and square feet per employee rates (for commercial / industrial development). WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 10 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 • Determining achieved densities for residential, commercial, and industrial development completed during the reporting period. Three technical memos developed for Whatcom County's Review and Evaluation Program document methods used to determine the assumptions used in the analysis. Technical Memo Comparing Whatcom County Occupancy and Persons Per Household Rates by Housing Type and Owner I Renter Tenure (City of Bellingham, February 2022) examines the differences between occupancy and persons per household rates for single family and multifamily housing types and for renter-occupied and owner- occupied households. Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program Birch Bay Occupancy & Persons per Household Rates (CAI, June 29, 2021) provides alternative assumptions for the Birch Bay UGA. The City of Bellingham developed a Technical Memo Estimating Square Feet Per Job for Commercial and Industrial Lands in Whatcom County (October 20, 2020) that evaluates local space utilization patterns for all UGAs throughout the County. Resulting figures are used to translate built commercial and industrial building area into an estimate of the number of employees that can be accommodated in that area. Based on this analysis, each city and Whatcom County selected the appropriate assumed square feet per employee for commercial and industrial development types. Exhibit 3 summarizes the assumptions by development type and jurisdiction. Exhibit 3. Commercial and Industrial Employment Density Estimates in Square Feet per Employee UGA Commercial Industrial Bellingham 440 660 Birch Bay 532 812 Blaine 531 739 Cherry Point 205 1,779 Columbia Valley 532 812 Everson 800 1,501 Ferndale 580 1,129 Lynden 721 1,037 Nooksack 605 795 Sumas 669 890 Source: Technical Memo Estimating Square Feet Per Job for Commercial and Industrial Lands in Whatcom County, City of Bellingham, October 20, 2020. Whatcom County and cities' Suitable Land Tools. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 11 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Once population and employment assumptions have been selected, the next step is to determine the actual density of residential and employment development that occurred during the reporting period (2016-2021) in terms of dwelling units per net acre for residential development and floor area ratios (FAR) for commercial and industrial development. Later, achieved net density data and other planning assumptions are used to convert developable land into future population and employment capacity for UGAs in the Suitable Land Tools. Assemble Net Developable Land Inventory The Net Developable Land Inventory for UGAs consists of all land which, as of April 1, 2021, was considered vacant, partially-used, or underutilized and which is expected to be available for development and served by infrastructure during the current planning period. Exhibit 4 details the criteria underlying each of these categories. Exhibit 4. Criteria for Classifying Developable Land Category Vacant Parcel Zoning Criteria for Classification A--'V•~-~w,-•~o•••-Yo,--,---"~'-•mmw""~~--------------• All Residential, Improvement value less than $10,000 Partially Used Commercial, Industrial Single Family Parcel size greater than three (3) times minimum allowed under zoning.1 This may be lowered to between two (2) and three (3) times the minimum allowed under zoning at the discretion of the jurisdiction. Jurisdictions may propose to exclude parcels with current assessed improvement value > 93 rd percentile 2 of jurisdiction improvement values if the parcel size is less than five acres. Multifamily, Ratio between improvement value and land Commercial, Industrial value less than 1.0.3 1 This threshold accounts for parcels less than three times the minimum size that due to parcel configuration, location of existing development on the site, or other factors are not likely to be divided to their maximum potential. 2 The option to exclude parcels with high improvement values is meant to account for large single family parcels with high-end homes that are unlikely to be subdivided. The 93 rd percentile threshold was determined by analyzing the distribution of housing values in the County and selecting a reasonable value that could be applied across all jurisdictions. 3 The Department of Commerce's Buildable Lands Guidelines (2018) state" ... When the value of the land is near or higher than the value of the improvement on the land, the property is generally going to be more favorable for redevelopment ... " (page 34). WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 12 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Category Parcel Zoning Criteria for Classification Under- Utilized Single Family Multifamily Commercial and Industrial Jurisdictions can identify existing development, such as gas stations or uses that preclude significant development on the site, as fully developed when the ratio of improvement value to land value is less than 1.0. If identified as fully developed, the parcel will be subtracted from the inventory. NIA Parcels occupied by nonconforming single family residential uses. Parcels occupied by nonconforming residential uses or other nonconforming uses. The net developable land inventory process for the Review and Evaluation Period included the following steps, described in greater detail in the Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program Methodology: • Compile Gross Developable Land Inventory: Identify parcels zoned for residential and employment development which are considered vacant, partially-used, or underutilized. • Deduct Critical Areas and Other Areas with Reduced Development Potential: Remove the parcels and portions of parcels which are impacted by critical areas or other issues that, it is assumed, will not be developable during the planning period. • Deduct Land for Future Public Uses: Remove any land already planned for future capital facilities and quasi-public uses. • Infrastructure Gaps: Determine if there are infrastructure gaps that would reduce or prevent urban density development on vacant, partially-used, and underutilized lands over the remainder of the planning period. Remove land not likely to be served with the capital facilities needed to support urban density development. • Deduct Land for Future Infrastructure and Quasi-Public Uses: Apply percentage reductions to deduct assumed portions of developable land that will be dedicated to future infrastructure and quasi-public WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 13 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 UGA Bellingham Birch Bay Blaine Cherry Point uses. Future infrastructure deductions are informed by the analysis of 2016-2021 permit data for each jurisdiction. • Deduct Market Factor: Apply a reasonable market factor to account for lands that are not likely to be available for development because of landowner preferences or other reasons not accounted in the previous deduction steps. For the Review and Evaluation Period, Whatcom County and the cities have developed a framework, documented in the Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program Methodology to guide development of suitable market factors specific to the UGAs and land uses by development status. Market factors applied by development type and parcel status, as well as the overall average market factor for each UGA are presented in Exhibit 5. Exhibit 5. Market Factors by UGA, Land Use Category, and Development Status Single Family Multifamily Commercial Industrial Combined Vacant PU uu Vacant PU uu Vacant PU uu Vacant PU uu 22% 26% 30% 20% 25% 30% 20% 25% 30% 20% 25% 30% 24% 17% 27% 27% 15% 27% 27% 17% 27% 27% N/A N/A N/A 20% 15% 25% 25% 15% 25% 25% 15% 25% 25% 15% 25% 25% 19% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 23% 33% 33% 23% Columbia Valley 24% 30% N/A 24% N/A 30% 24% N/A 30% 24% N/A N/A 24% Everson Ferndale Lynden Nooksack Sumas 15% 25% N/A 15% 25% N/A 15% 25% 25% 15% 25% 25% 19% 15% 25% 25% 15% 25% 25% 15% 25% 25% 15% 25% 25% 20% 15% 25% N/A 15% 25% 25% 15% 25% 25% 15% 25% 25% 20% 15% 25% N/A N/A N/A N/A 15% 25% 25% 15% N/A 25% 21% 15% 25% N/A 15% 25% N/A 15% N/A 25% 15% 25% 25% 19% Sources: Whatcom County and Cities' Suitable Land Tools, 2022. Note: PU refers to partially-used land. UU refers to underutilized land. NI A's indicate a category that has no assumed future development or no developable land capacity within the jurisdiction. After applying the market factor, the final acreage totals by zoning designation and UGA represent the updated net developable land inventory - the land expected to be available to accommodate future population and employment over the remaining planning period. Estimate Population and Employment Capacity In this step, net developable land inventory is converted into population and employment capacity. The final product is an estimate of the number of people and employees that can be accommodated in each UGA on developable land. This process includes the following steps, described in detail in the Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program Methodology: • Determine Assumed Future Densities: Use achieved densities, when available, as the baseline assumed densities for future WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 14 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 development in the UGA over the remaining portion of the current 20-year planning period. • Determine Population Capacity: Apply residential development assumptions, including assumed density, occupancy rate and persons per household to the residential Net Developable Land Inventory to estimate current capacity for new residential development in UGAs. • Determine Employment Capacity: Apply employment development assumptions, including assumed density (FAR), occupancy rate, and employees per square foot to the commercial and industrial net developable land inventory to estimate current capacity for new commercial and industrial development. Evaluate Land Capacity Sufficiency The final step is to evaluate whether there is currently enough land capacity in UGAs to accommodate projected growth through the remainder of the current 20-year planning period (2021-2036). This includes the following steps: • Compare Population Capacity to Remaining Projected Growth: Compare the estimated population growth capacity to the remaining projected population growth. Identify any inconsis te ncie s. • Compare Employment Capacity to Remaining Projected Growth: Compare the estimated employment growth capacity to remaining projected employment growth. Identify any inconsistencies. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 15 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 COUNTYWIDE FINDINGS Whatcom County contains ten urban growth areas (UGAs). Seven UGAs represent future annexation areas for corresponding cities and three are standalone, non-city UGAs (Cherry Point, Columbia Valley, and Birch Bay). Whatcom County as a whole is projected to have 275,450 residents and 120,284 employees by 2036. Whatcom County UGAs have projected growth allocations of 50,811 for population and 29,436 for employment between 2016 and 2036 (Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2). Based on data collected by the cities and the County in the Data Reporting Tools for building permits that received final approval between April 1, 2016 and April 1, 2021 and occupancy, persons per household and square feet per employee assumptions, new construction in Whatcom County and the cities accommodated an estimated 14,326 people (83% within UGAs) and 5,351 employees (93% within UGAs) in this five year period (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). The Washington State Office of Financial Management (OFM) estimates that Whatcom County population grew by 13,631 between April 1, 2016 and April 1, 2021. This total would have been higher if not for the COVID 19 pandemic, which resulted in out-of-county higher education students returning home to engage in on-line classes. OFM estimates that changes in housing occupancy rates and household size in existing 2016 housing stock account for 14% of total growth in countywide household population between 2016 and 2021. The Buildable Lands Report 2022 uses the 2036 population projections that were adopted in the 2016 city and County comprehensive plans. The estimated growth from building permits, as compiled in the Data Reporting Tools by the cities and the County, is similar to the growth estimated by OFM (2016-2021) as shown below. Based on information from the Data Reporting Tools WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT County-wide Population Growth (2016-2021) 14,326 County-wide Growth to Pro-rated Accommodate Population (2021-2036) Growth (2016- 2036) 60,565 46,239 PAGE 16 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Based upon 13,631 60,565 46,934 OFM estimates This Buildable Lands Report uses the population growth estimate (2016- 2021) from the Data Reporting Tools, which means that Whatcom County and the cities have an estimated 46,239 more people and 26,829 more employees to accommodate between 2021 and 2036 (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). For the Review and Evaluation Period of 2016-2021, Whatcom County and the cities permitted a total of 6,659 net new housing units (Exhibit 8). Of these, 84% were permitted within the UGAs, and 16% were outside the UGAs. On average, the number of net new housing units permitted and built was 1,332 per year for the County as a whole. With 22,176 additional housing units needed to accommodate projected population growth from 2021 through 2036, and based on VGA-specific occupancy and density assumptions, the cities and County will need to increase the average annual housing production to 1,478 units per year from 2021-2036 (Exhibit 9). This represents an increase of around 11 % over the 2016-2021 production rate. From 2016-2021 Whatcom County and the cities also developed a total of 3.9 million square feet of built area on 1,285 commercial and industrial acres supporting an estimated 5,351 jobs (Exhibit 7 and Exhibit 10). UGAs accommodated 94% of the built square footage and 93% of the estimated jobs on 38% of the developed acres. Non-UGA areas accommodated 6% of the built square footage and 7% of the estimated jobs on 62% of the developed acres. Commercial development comprised 84% of this developed acreage for the period 2016-2021, with industrial development comprising 16%. When considering these numbers, it should be noted that some commercial building in the Non-UGAs occurs on rather large parcels where large areas of the lot remain undeveloped. On a countywide basis, commercial development averaged 0.05 floor-area ratio (FAR -a ratio of built square footage to net parcel land area), while industrial development averaged 0.18 FAR. Between 2016 and 2021, the cities and the Columbia Valley UGA have achieved densities greater than planned for residential uses, while the Birch Bay UGA has not (Exhibit 11). These achieved densities ranged from 4.4 to 11.5 dwelling units per net acre for residential uses in incorporated areas and averaged one dwelling unit per 3.7 acres for Non-UGA areas. The unincorporated portions of city UGAs generally lag planned urban densities for their corresponding cities or did not experience residential development during the five-year review period. This is likely due to these as-yet unannexed areas lacking urban zoning and/or infrastructure. These WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 17 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 unincorporated areas serve as urban growth potential for future growth after annexation, when city zoning is adopted and public water and sewer provided. Four cities have planned densities for commercial development within their incorporated UGAs -Blaine, Everson, Nooksack, and Sumas (Exhibit 11). Blaine and Nooksack have achieved densities that are lagging the planned densities for the 2016-2021 period. Everson exceeded its planned commercial density, while Sumas did not have any commercial development in the five- year review period. Whatcom County has not adopted planned densities for commercial uses in its city UGAs, non-city UGAs, nor its Non-UGA areas. The same four cities also have planned densities for industrial development within their incorporated UGAs (Exhibit 11). Blaine is lagging the planned densities for the 2016-2021 period. Sumas has exceeded its planned industrial density, while Everson and Nooksack did not have any industrial development in the five-year review period. Whatcom County has not adopted planned densities for industrial uses in its city-UGAs, non-city UGAs, nor its Non-UGA areas. The UGAs in Whatcom County have estimated net land capacity for population growth of 73,075 for the remainder of the 20-year planning period from 2021 to 2036, indicating an estimated population capacity surplus of 34,215 (Exhibit 12). The UGAs in Whatcom County have estimated net land capacity for employment growth of 41,057 for the remainder of the 20-year planning period from 2021 to 2036, indicating an estimated employment capacity surplus of 16,652 (Exhibit 13). On a countywide basis, surplus capacity exists to accommodate both remaining projected population and employment growth for the rest of the 20-year planning period through 2036. In addition, planned residential densities in the cities are being achieved. Population & Employment Growth Data collected for the Review and Evaluation Period from 2016-2021 indicate that new construction in Whatcom County and the cities accommodated 14,326 people, or about 24% of its 2016-2036 growth projection of 60,565 for the 20-year planning period (Exhibit 6). About 44% of this growth occurred in the City of Bellingham and 83% occurred within the urban growth areas (UGAs) of the County. The remaining projected population growth for the County from 2021-2036 is 46,240. Of this, the Bellingham UGA is allocated 45%, the Ferndale UGA, WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 18 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 8%, the Lynden UGA, 8%; and the Blaine UGA, 7%. Approximately 16% of remaining projected population growth is to be accommodated in non UGA- areas of the County for the remainder of the 20-year planning period. Exhibit 6. Population Growth Estimates and Projected Growth, 2016-2036 2016-2036 2021-2036 2016-2021 Population Population Remaining UGA Growth Estimate Growth Population Projection Growth to City County Total Accommodate Bellingham 6,202 78 6,280 27,000 20,720 Birch Bay N/A 389 389 4,593 4,204 Blaine 501 50 551 3,838 3,287 Cherry Point N/A 0 0 0 0 Columbia Valley N/A 271 271 1,170 899 Everson 317 0 317 1,080 763 Ferndale 2,081 8 2,089 5,942 3,853 Lynden 1,685 3 1,688 5,568 3,880 Nooksack 177 0 177 861 684 Sumas 190 0 190 760 570 UGA Total 11,152 799 11,951 50,812 38,861 Non-UGA N/A 2,375 2,375 9,754 7,379 Total 11,152 3,174 14,326 60,566 46,240 Sources: Whatcom County and Cities' Data Reporting Tools, 2022; Community Attributes, Inc., 2021. Data collected for the 2016-2021 Review and Evaluation Period indicate that new construction in Whatcom County and the cities accommodated 5,351 jobs, or about 17% of its 2016-2036 growth projection of 32,179 for the 20- year planning period (Exhibit 7). Approximately 58% of this growth occurred within the Bellingham UGA, while most of the remaining employment growth occurred in the Ferndale, Lynden, and Blaine UGAs. Almost 93% occurred within the UGAs. The remaining projected employment growth for the County from 2021-2036 is 26,829. Of this, the Bellingham UGA is allocated 62%; the Ferndale UGA, 9%, the Blaine UGA, 6%, and the Lynden UGA, 5%. Approximately 9% of remaining projected employment growth is to be accommodated in Non-UGA areas of the County for the remainder of the 20-year planning period. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 19 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 7. Employment Growth Estimates and Projected Growth, 2016-2036 2016-2036 2021-2036 2016-2021 Employment Employment Remaining UGA Growth Estimate Growth Employment Projection Growth to City County Total Accommodate Bellingham 2,613 495 3,108 19,688 16,580 Birch Bay N/ /\ 55 55 474 419 Blaine 245 0 245 1,823 1,578 Cherry Point* N/l\ (141) (141) 735 876 Columbia Valley NIA 11 11 312 301 Everson 13 3 16 523 507 Ferndale 942 59 1,001 3,478 2,477 Lynden 624 0 624 1,876 1,252 Nooksack 8 0 8 100 92 Sumas 65 0 65 387 322 UGA Total 4,510 482 4,992 29,396 24,405 Non-UGA I\J/ A 359 359 2,783 2,424 Total 4,510 841 5,351 32,179 26,829 Sources: Whatcom County and Cities' Data Reporting Tools, 2022; Community Attributes, Inc., 2021. * Employment for Cherry Point is estimated through supplemental analysis provided to Whatcom County by Western Washington University (Employment at Cherry Point, June 2021), as permit data for this UGA do not accurately reflect employment growth trends. Cherry Point UGA employment declined between 2016 and 2021 because of job losses associated with the Alcoa (lntalco) shutdown. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 20 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Development Activity The Review and Evaluation Program tracks both residential and nonresidential development, as well as the distribution of development between urban and rural areas. This analysis tracks housing production to compare against planned growth and the necessary growth rates in terms of housing units to achieve those targets. It also tracks commercial and industrial land developed, building square footage, and development expressed as a floor-to-area ratio (FAR -a ratio of built square footage to net parcel land area). Residential Development For the Review and Evaluation Period of April 1, 2016 through March 31, 2021, the cities and the County permitted a total of 6,659 housing units inside and outside its UGAs (Exhibit 8). Of these units, 84% were permitted within the UGAs, and 16% were permitted outside the UGAs. Exhibit 8. Net Housing Units Permitted, Rural and Urban Areas Countywide, 2016-2021 2016* 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021** Year Unknown UGAs 851 1,074 946 1,041 1,140 531 33 Area Outside U GAs 135 198 215 238 215 42 0 Total 986 1,272 1,161 1,279 1,355 573 33 UGA Share 86% 84% 81% 81% 84% 93% Outside U GAs Share 14% 16% 19% 19% 16% 7% Sources: Whatcom County and Cities, 2022; Community Attributes, Inc., 2021. * 2016 captures net housing units permitted between April 1, 2016 and December 31, 2016. ** 2021 captures net housing units permitted between January 1, 2021 and March 31, 2021. Of these new units, 48% were permitted and built in the Bellingham UGA (3,219 from 2016-2021), while almost 36% were permitted and built in all other UGAs combined (2,397 units from 2016-2021). The remaining 1,043 units were constructed outside UGAs (Exhibit 9). On average, the number of net new housing units permitted and built was 1,332 per year for the County as a whole (UGA plus Non-UGA areas) for the 2016-2021 Review and Evaluation Period. With 22,176 additional housing units needed to accommodate projected population growth through 2036, and based on the current distribution of single family and multifamily development and UGA specific occupancy and density assumptions, the cities and the County will need to increase average annual housing production to 1,478 units per year from 2021-2036. This represents an increase of around 11 % over the 2016-2021 production rate. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 21 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Total 5,616 1,043 6,659 84% 16% Relatively small increases in production rates will be needed for the Bellingham, Nooksack, and Columbia Valley UGAs. The Birch Bay and Blaine UGAs will have to substantially increase their housing production rates to meet their population allocation targets. Specifically, housing production in the Birch Bay UGA will need to increase from an average of 46 new units per year in 2016-2021 to 164 units per year for the remainder of the planning period 2021-2036. Housing production in the Blaine UGA will need to increase from 53 to 105 for the remainder of the planning period 2021-2036. Exhibit 9. Annual Housing Production Necessary to Accommodate Growth Allocations by UGA and Non-UGA Areas, 2021-2036 NetNew Average Net Additional Average Net UGA Units New Units Per Housing Units New Units per (2016-2021) Year Needed by Year Needed (2016-2021} 2036 ( 2021-2036} Bellingham 3,219 644 10,620 708 Birch Bay 228 46 2,462 164 Blaine 263 53 1,569 105 Cherry Point 0 0 0 0 Columbia Valley 106 21 352 23 Everson 108 22 260 17 Ferndale 810 162 1,494 100 Lynden 742 148 1,706 114 Nooksack 59 12 229 15 Sumas 81 16 242 16 UGA Total 5,616 1,123 18,935 1,262 Non-UGA 1,043 209 3,241 216 County Total 6,659 1,332 22,176 1,478 Sources: Whatcom County and Cities, 2022; Community Attributes, Inc., 2022. Commercial & Industrial Development For the Review and Evaluation Period (April 1, 2016 through March 31, 2021), a total of 3.9 million square feet was constructed on 1,285 commercial and industrial acres supporting an estimated 5,351 jobs inside and outside its urban growth areas (Exhibit 7 and Exhibit 10). UGAs accommodated 94% of the built square footage and 93% of the estimated jobs on approximately 38% of the developed acres. Non-UGA areas accommodated approximately 6% of the built square footage and 7% of the jobs on 62% of the acres. When considering these numbers, it should be noted that some commercial building in the Non-UGAs occurred on rather large parcels where large areas of the lot remain undeveloped. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 22 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 On a countywide basis, commercial development comprised 84% of this developed acreage for the period 2016-2021, with industrial development comprising 16%. Overall, commercial development averaged 0.05 FAR, while industrial development averaged 0.18 FAR. Within UGAs, commercial development averaged 0.16 FAR, while industrial development averaged 0.20 FAR. Exhibit 10. Countywide Nonresidential Development by UGA, 2016-2021 Commercial Industrial Total UGA Net Building FAR Net Building FAR Net Building FAR Acres Sg Ft Acres Sg Ft Acres Sg Ft Bellingham City 110.8 l, 174,506 0.24 43.8 466,871 0.24 154.6 1,641,377 0.24 County 16.6 184,246 0.26 5.3 67,200 0.29 21.8 251,446 0.26 UGA Total 127.4 1,358,752 0.24 49.0 534,071 0.25 176.4 1,892,823 0.25 Birch Bay l l.9 30,628 0.06 0.0 0 0.00 l l.9 30,628 0.06 Blaine City 6.6 116,580 0.41 0.0 0 0.00 6.6 116,580 0.41 County 0.0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0.00 UGA Total 6.6 116,580 0.41 0.0 0 0.00 6.6 116,580 0.41 Cherry Point 0.0 0 0.00 16.8 80,551 0.11 16.8 80,551 0.11 Columbia Valley 2.7 6,364 0.05 0.0 0 0.00 2.7 6,364 0.05 Everson City 0.9 10,825 0.26 0.0 0 0.00 0.9 10,825 0.26 County 0.0 0 0.00 16. l 5,400 0.01 16.l 5,400 0.01 UGA Total 0.9 10,825 0.26 16. l 5,400 0.01 17.0 16,225 0.02 Ferndale City 113.7 425,773 0.09 46.4 393,457 0.19 160.l 819,230 0.12 County 0.0 0 0.00 7.6 70,214 0.21 7.6 70,214 0.21 UGA Total 113.7 425,773 0.09 54.0 463,671 0.20 167.6 889,444 0.12 Lynden City 37.8 191,276 0.12 35.4 405,818 0.26 73.2 597,094 0.19 County 0.0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0.00 UGA Total 37.8 191,276 0.12 35.4 405,818 0.26 73.2 597,094 0.19 Nooksack City 0.8 4,925 0.14 0.0 0 0.00 0.8 4,925 0.14 County 0.0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0.00 UGA Total 0.8 4,925 0.14 0.0 0 0.00 0.8 4,925 0.14 Sumas City 0.0 0 0.00 l l.2 60,549 0.12 l l.2 60,549 0.12 County 0.0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0.00 UGA Total 0.0 0 0.00 l l.2 60,549 0.12 l l.2 60,549 0.12 UGA Total 301.8 2,145,123 0.16 182.4 1,550,060 0.20 484.2 3,695,183 0.18 Non-UGA* 777.9 201,601 0.01 23.l 16,920 0.02 801.0 218,521 0.01 County Total 1,079.7 2,346,724 0.05 205.5 1,566,980 0.18 1,285.2 3,913,704 0.07 Sources: Whatcom County and Cities' Data Reporting Tools, 2022; Community Attributes, Inc., 2021. * Non-UGA acreage is gross acres, rather than net acres. WHATCOM COUNTY PAGE 23 BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Planned and Achieved Densities The jurisdictions entered permit information into their respective Data Reporting Tools, which calculated the achieved densities (2016-2021). The cities all achieved greater-than-planned residential densities as articulated in their planning and zoning policies and regulations. The cities of Bellingham, Ferndale, Lynden, and Sumas significantly outperformed their planned residential densities for the period. In the corresponding unincorporated portions of UGAs of Bellingham, Ferndale and Lynden achieved residential densities generally lag planned densities. The unincorporated portions of the Everson, Nooksack, and Sumas UGAs did not experience any residential development between 2016 and 2021. This is largely because these as-yet unannexed areas lack urban zoning and/or infrastructure. The unincorporated areas serve as urban growth potential for future growth after annexation, when city zoning is adopted and public water and sewer provided. For non-city UGAs, residential development in the Columbia Valley UGA exceeded the planned density while residential development in the Birch Bay UGA did not. Many cities in Whatcom County do not yet have planned commercial or industrial densities. However, several cities have such planned densities. Blaine and Nooksack achieved densities lagged planned densities. Development in Everson and Sumas exceeded planned densities between 2016 and 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 24 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 11. Planned and Achieved Densities by Jurisdiction Residential Commercial Industrial Planned Achieved Pl d Achieved Planned Achieved UGA Density ann~ Density . Density Density 2016-2021 Difference Density 2016-2021 Difference Density 2016-2021 Difference (units/cc) (units/cc) (FAR) (FAR) (FAR) (FAR) Bellingham City 7.2 l l.5 4.3 1'I/A 0.22 N/J\ N/A 0.24 N/A County 6.0 l.3 (4.7) r-1/A 0.26 N/ /\ N/ ;\ 0.29 N/A Birch Bay 5.0 4.5 (0.5) 1N/ J\ 0.06 N/A N/ J\ 0.00 I'~/ A Blaine City 4.3 4.4 0.2 0.80 0.31 (0.49) 0.89 0.30 (0.59) County 4.0 4.7 0.7 l'1/ J\ 0.00 N/A 1'1/ /\ 0.00 r-1/A Cherry Point N/ ;\ 0.0 N/A N/A 0.00 N/A GI//\ 0.11 N/A Columbia Valley 4.0 4.9 0.9 N/A 0.05 N/ ;\ N/A 0.00 GI/ A Everson City 4.0 4.8 0.8 0.20 0.26 0.06 0.30 0.00 GI/A County 4.0 0.0 i'-1/A N/A 0.00 N/A N/ ;\ 0.01 N/A Ferndale City 4.0 6.1 2.1 N/A 0.09 N/A N/./\ 0.19 i~/ A County 6.0 0.3 (5.7) GI/ A 0.00 i'-J/ A N/A 0.21 i~/ /\ Lynden City 5.0 7.2 2.2 NA 0.12 N/A NA 0.26 N/A County 6.0 l.7 (4.3) N/ ;\ 0.00 1'1/A N/A 0.00 N/ /\ Nooksack City 4.4 5.2 0.8 0.25 0.14 (0.11) 0.10 0.00 N/A County 4.0 0.0 N/A 1'1/A 0.00 GI/A N/A 0.00 i'-1/ A Sumas City 4.9 7.5 2.7 0.22 0.00 N//\ 0.11 0.12 0.01 County 4.0 0.0 N;A N/ /\ 0.00 N/A f,JjA 0.00 N//\ Non-UGA Areas N/A 3.7 N//\ N/A 0.01 N/ /\ N/A 0.02 N/A Sources: Whatcom County and Cities' Data Reporting Tools, 2022; Community Attributes, Inc., 2022. Note: An NI A in the Planned Density columns indicates that the jurisdiction does not have an adopted planned density for the specific development type. An NI A in the Difference columns indicates that the difference between planned and achieved densities cannot be calculated because no planned density is available. The achieved density for the Non-UGA Areas is acres per dwelling unit. Land Suitable for Development An analysis of the developable lands inventory by UGA, deducting critical areas, future public uses, quasi-public uses, infrastructure gaps, and an assumed market factor, provides an estimate of land capacity for population and employment growth. Applying densities, occupancy rates, and other population and employment assumptions, the developable lands inventory results in an estimate of population and employment capacity to compare to the remaining population to accommodate. Development data show that UGAs accommodated population growth of approximately 11,951 persons for the Review and Evaluation Period of 2016- WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 25 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 UGA Bellingham Birch Bay Blaine Cherry Point 2021. The remaining forecast population growth to be accommodated for the rest of the 20-year planning period ending in 2036 is 38,861 for all UGAs (Exhibit 6). Based on an analysis of developable residential land capacity for the UGAs, additional population (housing) growth capacity exists to accommodate 73,075 for the period -a surplus of 34,215, or 17% beyond what is necessary (Exhibit 12). While individual UGA population growth capacity surpluses range from 9% in Bellingham to 84% in Blaine, Birch Bay has a 10% deficit in capacity. Exhibit 12. Whatcom County Population Growth Capacity and Allocations by UGA, 2021-2036 2016-2036 2036 Total 2036 2016-2021 2021-2036 2021-2036 Population Population Population Population Remaining Population Surplus Surplus Growth Allocation Allocation Growth Population Capacity (Deficit) Percent Allocation Share Estimate Growth 27,000 123,710 45% 6,280 20,720 31,392 10,672 9% 4,593 12,822 5% 389 4,204 2,950 (1,254) (10%) 3,838 9,585 3% 551 3,287 11,324 8,037 84% 0 43 0% 0 0 0 0 0% Columbia Valley 1,170 4,448 2% 271 899 2,167 l,268 29% Everson Ferndale Lynden Nooksack Sumas UGA Total 1,080 3,907 1% 317 763 3,634 2,871 73% 5,942 19,591 7% 2,089 3,853 10,786 6,932 35% 5,568 19,275 7% 1,688 3,880 8,467 4,587 24% 861 2,425 1% 177 684 1,283 599 25% 760 2,323 1% 190 570 1,073 503 22% 50,812 198,129 72% 11,951 38,861 73,075 34,215 17% Sources: Whatcom County and Cities, 2022; Community Attributes, Inc., 2021. For Non-UGAs (areas outside UGAs), the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan's pro-rated population growth allocation for 2016-2036 equates to 9,754 more people (Exhibit 1). Based upon building permits and assumptions in the Data Reporting Tool, it is estimated that new development in the Non- UGAs accommodated about 2,375 people between 2016 and 2021. Therefore, these areas would need to accommodate about 7,379 more people over the remainder of the planning period from 2021-2036 (Exhibit 6). The County estimates that land outside UGAs can accommodate in excess of 14,000 additional dwelling units. This is more than enough capacity to accommodate population growth in these areas. Both UGAs, which include cities, and Non-UGAs have sufficient capacity to accommodate projected population growth over the remaining portion of the planning period through the year 2036. Therefore, there is sufficient suitable land capacity to accommodate the countywide population projection set forth in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan. UGAs accommodated estimated employment growth of approximately 4,992 jobs from 2016-2021. The remaining forecast employment growth to be WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 26 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 UGA Bellingham Birch Bay Blaine Cherry Point* accommodated for the rest of the 20-year planning period ending in 2036 is 24,405 for all UGAs (Exhibit 7). Based on an analysis of developable commercial and industrial land capacity for UGAs, additional employment growth capacity exists to accommodate 41,057 more jobs for the period -a surplus of 16,652, or 16% beyond what is necessary (Exhibit 13). Individual UGA employment growth surpluses ranged from 3% in Bellingham to 136% in Blaine. No UGA has a deficit in capacity to accommodate employment growth for the remainder of the planning period (2021-2036). Exhibit 13. Whatcom County Employment Growth Capacity and Allocations by UGA, 2021-2036 2016-2036 2036 2016-2021 2021-2036 2036 Total 2021-2036 Employment Employment Employment Employment Remaining Employment Surplus Surplus Growth Allocation Allocation Growth Employment Capacity (Deficit) Percent Allocation Share Estimate Growth 19,688 75,000 62% 3,108 16,580 18,671 2,090 3% 474 1,140 1% 55 419 573 154 13% 1,823 5,159 4% 245 1,578 8,570 6,992 136% 735 2,883 2% (141) 876 2,613 1,737 60% Columbia Valley 312 444 0% 11 301 420 119 27% Everson 523 1,312 1% 16 507 1,575 1,068 81% Ferndale 3,478 9,372 8% 1,001 2,477 3,484 1,007 11% Lynden 1,876 7,103 6% 624 1,252 4,038 2,786 39% Nooksack 100 369 0% 8 92 355 263 71% Sumas 387 l, 145 1% 65 322 758 436 38% UGA Total 29,396 103,927 86% 4,992 24,405 41,057 16,652 16% Sources: Whatcom County and Cities, 2022; Community Attributes, Inc., 2021. *Cherry Point UGA employment estimates were developed by Western Washington University (Employment at Cherry Point, June 2021). The timeframe for the estimated employment growth, and employment growth allocation for Cherry Point is 2017-2021 and 2017-2036 to coordinate with the timeframe for the employment growth estimate. Complete data was not available for 2016 for the Cherry Point UGA. Inconsistencies and Reasonable Measures On a countywide basis, surplus capacity exists to accommodate both remaining projected population and employment growth for the rest of the 20-year planning period through 2036. In addition, planned residential densities in the cities are being achieved. When planned densities are not being achieved, there is not sufficient capacity to accommodate remaining projected population or employment growth, or development patterns are not occurring as planned, Whatcom County and the cities will need to determine if reasonable measures are necessary to address the issue. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 27 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Reasonable measures should, if necessary, be selected by the jurisdiction based on the nature of the inconsistency that has occurred. The measures should be reasonably likely to increase consistency during the succeeding review and evaluation period. Once selected, reasonable measures must be adopted, as applicable, into individual County and city comprehensive plans and/or implementing regulations. A list of potential reasonable measures that jurisdictions may consider, if needed, are documented in the Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program Methodology, Appendix A. Many of the potential reasonable measures identified have already been implemented by jurisdictions to varying degrees to address housing affordability, land supply, and other concerns. The Jurisdiction Profiles address whether additional reasonable measures may be needed for individual UGAs. JURISDICTION PROFILES This section provides detailed data and analysis on achieved and assumed future densities, as well as summaries of developable land capacity and growth capacity, by jurisdiction. Whatcom County contains ten UGAs -seven city UGAs, and three non-City UGAs (Birch Bay, Cherry Point, and Columbia Valley) -that are described in this section. In accordance with RCW 36. 70A.215(3)(e) and the Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program Methodology, the Buildable Lands Report will typically use achieved densities (as measured for the Review and Evaluation period, 2016-2021) as a basis for the assumed densities for future development in the UGA over the remaining portion of the current 20-year planning period (2021-2036). If there is little or no data on achieved densities, or the achieved densities are clearly not reflective of future development that is anticipated in the UGA then, based on a review of achieved densities in comparable (lreas and other analysis, the local jurisdiction has developed assumptions for future development densities in the UGA. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 28 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 1. Bellingham UGA The Bellingham Urban Growth Area is the largest in Whatcom County, projected to encompass 123,710 residents and 75,000 employees by 2036. The UGA has growth allocations of 27,000 new residents and 19,688 new jobs between 2016 and 2036 (Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2). Achieved Growth 2016-2021 Based on permit data collected between 2016 and 2021 and occupancy, persons per household, and square feet per employee assumptions, new construction in the Bellingham UGA accommodated an estimated 6,278 new residents (99% within the City of Bellingham) and 3,108 new jobs (84% within the City of Bellingham) (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). Bellingham's residential growth over the past five years has occurred at higher-than- expected densities achieving an overall density of 11.5 units per acre. The Whatcom County Land Capacity Analysis Report referenced in the 2016 City of Bellingham Comprehensive plan (Land Use Chapter page 31) assumed future residential growth would average 7.2 units per acre. The achieved density within the incorporated portions of the UGA falls within the planned densities of 6.0 to 24.0 WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT units per acre adopted in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan for the City of Bellingham (Exhibit 11). Development in the unincorporated portions of the Bellingham UGA achieved a residential density of 1.3 units per acre (Exhibit 11). This density lags planned urban densities for the City of Bellingham and is likely due to these as-yet unannexed areas lacking city zoning and complete infrastructure; instead, the unincorporated areas serve as urban growth potential for future growth after annexation, when city zoning is adopted and public water and sewer provided. Neither the City of Bellingham or Whatcom County have adopted planned densities for commercial or industrial uses. Between 2016 and 2021, incorporated areas of the UGA achieved a commercial Floor-Area-Ratio (FAR) of 0.22, and an industrial FAR of 0.24. The unincorporated areas within the Bellingham UGA achieved slightly higher FARs of 0.26 and 0.29 for commercial and industrial uses respectively (Exhibit 11). PAGE 29 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Population Capacity 2021-2036 Based on achieved densities and regulatory changes adopted since 2016, the forward- looking evaluation of land suitable for development that estimates the growth capacity on remaining buildable lands is assuming an overall residential density of 11.2 units per acre on vacant, partially used, and underutilized lands. This aligns well with the 11. 5 units per acre overall achieved density for residential development from 2016 to 2021. City of Bellingham planners are assuming future densities ranging between 0.2 units per acre and 14.5 units per acre for single-family zones, depending on the specific zone (Zones in Bellingham's unincorporated UGA with a density of 0.2 units per acre or one dwelling per five acres are located within the Lake Whatcom Watershed and were adopted by Whatcom County for the purpose of water quality protection). Future density assumptions range between 4.0 and 69. 7 units per acre for zones allowing multifamily uses (Exhibit 14). The results of the analysis show the Bellingham UGA has estimated net land capacity for residential development (population growth) of 752.98 acres (Exhibit 15). When combined with pending projects in the development pipeline and in approved WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT master plans these buildable lands have a total estimated occupied unit capacity of 15,531 dwelling units. Based on persons per household assumptions, these dwelling units can accommodate an estimated 31,392 new residents indicating an estimated population capacity surplus of 10,672 people (Exhibit 16). Housing Needs by Type The Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 3-Housing, Chart 3 -Estimated Dwelling Units Needed, page 3-8) indicates Bellingham has a need for 5,171 single-family, 9,507 multi-family, and 1,410 other (group housing) new dwelling units during the 2013- 2036 planning period. • During the period April 1, 2013 to March 31, 2016 Bellingham completed final inspections on permits for 372 single-family and 797 multi-family housing units. • During the period April 1· 2016 to March 31, 2021 Bellingham completed final inspections on permits for 794 new single- family and 2,393 new multi-family housing units (including 537 student housing and memory-care group housing units that would fall under the "other" category in the County housing needs chart). PAGE 30 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 • The forward-looking evaluation of land suitable for development component of Bellingham's Buildable Lands Analysis shows that the City and unincorporated UGA have an estimated 2021-2036 capacity for an additional 4,200 single-family and 11,863 multi-family housing units (Exhibit 16). Combining the 2013-2016 and 2016-2021 built totals with the estimated 2021-2036 capacity results in an overall capacity of 5,366 single- family and 15,053 multi-family housing units plus 537 completed units in the "other" category. The combined single-family capacity is slightly higher than the estimated need (5,366 -5,171 = 195 housing units or 4%). The combined multi-family totals exceed the estimated need by 58% or 5,546 housing units (15,053 -9,507). And the combined overall total (single-family, multi-family, and other) exceeds the estimated need by 30% or 4,868 housing units (20,956 -16,088). While the estimated single-family housing capacity is minimally adequate, the overall land capacity is sufficient to accommodate the dwelling units needed in the planning period as established in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 3-Housing, Chart 3). WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT Employment Capacity 2021-2036 Based on achieved densities and regulatory changes adopted since 2016, City of Bellingham planners are assuming future commercial F ARs ranging between 0.25 and 3.50, depending on the specific zone. Assumed future industrial F ARs range between 0.25 and 0.40 (Exhibit 17). The results of the evaluation of land suitable for development show the Bellingham UGA has estimated net land capacity for employment growth of 377.6 acres (Exhibit 18). When combined with pending projects in the development pipeline and in approved master plans these buildable lands have a total estimated occupied commercial and industrial capacity of 9.8 million square feet. Based on square feet per employee assumptions, this employment space can accommodate an estimated 18,671 jobs indicating an estimated employment capacity surplus of 2,091 jobs (Exhibit 19). Analysis of Comprehensive Plan Objectives and Reasonable Measures Over the past five years Bellingham has worked hard to implement the goals adopted in the 2016 Comprehensive Plan. Through that process, the City has already taken many steps that would be considered reasonable PAGE 31 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 measures (many of which are expressly identified in Appendix B of the Buildable Lands Guidelines) including, but not limited to: • Adopting affordable housing incentives including transportation, park, and school impact fees and system development charge waivers up to 80%, reducing parking requirements, expanding the Multi-Family Tax Exemption zone, and designating a Federal Opportunity Zone; • Adopting a rental registration and safety inspection program; • Adopting a short-term rental registration and monitoring program; • Working with Whatcom County to update the Urban Fringe Subarea plan in 2017- 2018; • Amending the City subdivision ordinance in 2018 to improve the land division process, allow for more flexible design, and . up to a 50% density bonus when including smaller infill housing forms; • Adopting a new Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU) ordinance in 2018 allowing ADUs in all residential zones; WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT • Extending in 2018 the tax levy for the Bellingham Home Fund for an additional ten years. This levy provides about $4 million per year and is combined with about $3 million per year from the Affordable Housing Sales Tax, and about $2.5 million per year in Federal CDBG and HOME funds. The combined annual total of over $9 million is used to provide rental assistance, homebuyer down payment assistance, home preservation, human services, and rental housing production for low-income households in Bellingham. About $5 million per year of these funds are directed to production of affordable rental housing. The City partnering with non-profit developers has leveraged local funds at a 1:8 ratio ($ 1 of City funds for every $8 of partner funds) to build and maintain over 1,400 housing units and hundreds more are in the development pipeline; • Amending the Infill Toolkit standards in 2021, eliminating redundant fees, reducing parking requirements, and simplifying and improving the process for permitting and building "missing middle" housing forms; • Encouraging reductions in off-street surface parking; PAGE 32 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 • Adopting revisions to the multi-family zoning code in 2021 to include a simpler ranged zoning system and minim um density standards to ensure infill goals are met; • Updating the interlocal agreement with Whatcom County concerning planning, annexation, and development within UGAs; • Adopting a manufactured home park protective overlay zone and enhanced resident notification requirements in 2022; • Adopting streamlined urban village design review regulations in 2022; • Working with partners in the development community to identify and overcome regulatory barriers to bringing more affordable renter and owner-oriented housing online sooner; • Utilizing development agreements and other tools to assist land-owners with successful redevelopment of challenging sites in urban villages and other priority areas; • Taking an active role with our local representatives in the current state legislative session as they consider a wide WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT array of bills addressing housing affordability and supply; • Addressing the recent, dramatic increase in families with children experiencing homelessness by designating space in new affordable housing projects, investing in pro-active prevention programs, and working with community partners to plan, fund, and build new family housing solutions; and • Creation of Urban Holding Zones (UGA Reserves). Despite these reasonable measures the City has already taken, and the analysis showing that Bellingham is meeting or exceeding the development density assumptions in the county-wide planning policies and the 2016 comprehensive plan, housing affordability and supply remain critical concerns. According to the 2018 Bellingham Consolidated Plan, 43% of Bellingham citizens pay more than 30% of their income towards housing expenses (they are "cost burdened"), and nearly one-half of those households pay more than 40% of their income towards housing expenses (they are "severely cost burdened"). Furthermore, housing in Bellingham is of particular importance given PAGE 33 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 the City's status as the employment center of Whatcom County. Of particular note, the capacity for housing offering ownership opportunities is very limited. As seen in Exhibit 16, while 64% of Bellingham's developable residential land is zoned for single-family development, it accounts for only 26% of estimated future housing production. Whereas the 36% of land zoned for multi-family development accounts for 7 4% of estimated future production. Also, of concern related to homeownership opportunities, while about 70% of Bellingham's recent housing production has been multi-family, the number of units sold as condominiums has been negligible. Based on these persistent concerns adopting additional reasonable measures in Bellingham is warranted. These measures could include, but are not limited to: • Evaluating Bellingham's existing single- family zoning code and (similar to the 2021 multi-family code update) considering adoption of the following: o A standardized and simplified range of densities consistent with those in the 2016 Comprehensive Plan; o Minimum densities; WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT o Increasing densities where appropriate; and o Allowing Infill Toolkit development and "middle" housing forms in all single-family zones; • Evaluating regulatory barriers to condominium-style development; • Updating annexation plans and coordinating with Whatcom County to evaluate and adjust future City zoning in the unincorporated UGA and UGA Reserves to support expanding housing opportunities; • Investment in capital facilities, giving priority to capital facility investments that support production of housing; • Considering enacting incentive-based inclusionary zoning ordinances for new housing developments; • Exploring incentives for limited equity cooperatives and other models that provide an affordable path to homeownership (e.g. land trusts); • Revisiting existing regulations and neighborhood plans to evaluate and, if appropriate, remove regulatory PAGE 34 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 impediments to otherwise-developable land; • Considering code amendments allowing a wider variety of Form Based Housing; • Considering restoring and updating the Master Plan Ordinance;As mandated by HB1220, conducting a comprehensive Housing Needs Assessment to identify and quantify the housing needs for all economic segments of the community; • Using the Housing Needs Assessment to develop policies to plan for and accommodate a variety of housing types affordable to all economic segments; and • Ensuring timely updates to capital facility plans identify future infrastructure needs, funding mechanisms, and implementation plans to provide urban services to prioritize housing development necessary to accommodate forecast growth. Analysis by Zoning Category The following section provides details for each of Bellingham's general zoning categories of the residential densities assumed in 2016, those achieved 2016 to 2021, and those used in the forward-looking evaluation of land suitable for development that estimates the growth WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT capacity on remaining buildable lands from 2021 to 2036. Single family residential zones in Bellingham accommodated 566 single family and 321 multi family units for a total of 886 units and an overall achieved density of 5.3 units per acre compared to an assumed density of 4. 7 units per acre. There are 19 unique single family zones, of which 15 had growth over the past five years. Nine experienced higher than expected levels of development accommodating 160% of the growth assumed for them. Six zones fell short accommodating about 90% of assumed growth. Overall single family zones accommodated 114% of assumed growth. Multi family residential zones accommodated 748 multi family and 149 single family units for a total of 897 units and an overall achieved density of 22.9 units per acre compared to an assumed density of 17.7 units per acre. There are 34 unique multi family zones, of which 17 had growth over the past five years. Nine experienced higher than expected levels of development accommodating 263% of the growth assumed for them. Eight zones fell short accommodating about 91% of assumed growth. Overall multi family zones accommodated 130% of assumed growth. Commercial zones allowing and encouraging residential uses accommodated 671 multi PAGE 35 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 family units for an achieved density of 20. 7 units per acre compared to an assumed density of 17.8 units per acre. There are seven unique commercial zones, of which two had residential growth over the past five years. Both zones experienced higher than expected levels of development accommodating 116% of the growth assumed for them. For commercial zones allowing and encouraging residential uses the analysis continues the use of 2,500 square feet per multi family unit (Municipal Code does not specify a density) as a realistic value given the densities achieved in recent projects in these zones. Commercial/Industrial/Residential Multi zones accommodated 154 single family and 93 multi family units for an overall achieved density of 13.1 units per acre compared to an assumed density of 7.5 units per acre. There are two unique Com/Ind/RM zones, one of which experienced residential growth over the past five years. This zone experienced higher than expected levels of development accommodating 176% of the growth assumed for it. Urban Village zones accommodated 5 single family and 524 multi family units for an overall achieved density of 58. 9 units per acre compared to an assumed density of 41.4 units per acre. There are 13 unique urban village zones, 11 of which experienced residential growth over the past five years. Ten WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT experienced higher than expected levels of development accommodating 175% of the growth assumed for them. One zone fell short accommodating 89% of assumed growth. Overall urban village zones accommodated 142% of assumed growth. For urban village zones the analysis uses density values keyed to the floor area ratios (F ARs) specified in the Municipal Code for each urban village land use area. A table included in the evaluation of land suitable for development worksheet documents the assumptions that model allocation of building square footage to non- residential uses, parking, hallway/mechanical spaces, and residential units to translate each FAR value into a specific units per acre density. These model assumptions are based on densities achieved by recent projects in each of the urban villages. Background Details The following section highlights details specific to Bellingham's application of the Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program Methodology in the analysis of buildable lands. It includes the rates used to estimate population and employment, discussions of regulatory changes since 2016 that affect development capacity, infrastructure and future public uses, environmental constraints, market factors, PAGE 36 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 and lands in Washington State ownership excluded from the capacity analysis. Population and Employment Assumptions The housing occupancy rate and persons per household assumptions for the Bellingham UGA are based on current values from the Washington State Office of Financial Management (OFM) and are specific to Bellingham. The employment occupancy rate and jobs per square foot assumptions are based on Washington State Employment Security and Whatcom County Assessor's data as explained in Section 4.1 of the Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program Methodology. The values are as follows: • 97.5% Single Family occupancy rate • 96.4% Multifamily occupancy rate • 95.0% Commercial and Industrial occupancy rate • 2.499 persons per Single Family household • 1.850 persons per Multifamily household • 440 and 660 respectively Commercial and Industrial square feet per employee WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT The Bellingham UGA has an estimated 20,720 population and 16,580 employment growth remaining to accommodate between 2021 and 2036 (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). Regulatory Changes Since adoption of the 2016 Comprehensive Plan Bellingham has approved many regulatory changes that impact either the amount of land available for development, or the densities and mix of uses allowed on buildable lands. These changes are documented in detail in the Data Reporting Tool worksheet. The most significant changes include a rezone for Cordata Park removing 20 acres of mixed-use land from the buildable land supply (estimated capacity of 150 jobs and 100 housing units); approval of two annexations activating development of infrastructure and allowing development on 249 acres; approval of Title 23 (subdivision ordinance) streamlining the plat process and allowing a 50% density bonus for single-family cluster zones when at least 50% of units are Infill Toolkit forms; approval of an Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU) ordinance allowing and encouraging ADUs in Bellingham's neighborhoods; approval of an updated residential multi-family (RM) development code establishing a simplified tiered density system and minimum densities (increasing Bellingham's overall development capacity by PAGE 37 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 an estimated 20%); and Phase I of an update to the Infill Toolkit regulations streamlining and clarifying the development of missing- middle housing forms. Infrastructure and Future Public Uses Bellingham has identified areas within the City and unincorporated UGA that are within the service area for urban sewer utilities but may not achieve full buildout until after 2036 due to reliance upon developer-provided portions of these future utility systems. The areas identified based on mapping from the 2016 Bellingham Wastewater Conveyance Plan were also determined to be areas where development of other related infrastructure like roads and municipal water would likely depend on some level of developer participation. These areas were assigned estimated near-term, mid-term, long-term, or longer-term time frames and received associated percentage deductions of their developable area. The deductions total approximately 112 acres and do not preclude all development but acknowledge that full buildout may not occur until after 2036. This jurisdiction profile includes a map of the Bellingham UGA illustrating the land areas associated with these deductions. Deductions of buildable land related to roads, and water, sewer, and storm utilities are WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT accounted for in the methodology through an infrastructure deduction on vacant, partially- used, and underutilized land of between 5% and 24%. The recent 17-acre land acquisition by the Bellingham School District for a future elementary school is also removed from the buildable land supply. Future development on the three college campuses in Bellingham is accounted for in the "master planned" category of buildable land based on the adopted Institutional Master Plan (IMP) for each institution. Deductions for future public uses were made from the developable land supply based primarily on land acquisition needs identified in the Bellingham 2020 Park, Recreation, and Open Space (PRO) Plan. A total of 104 acres was deducted from developable vacant land for these purposes (see 2020 PRO Plan, Table 4.6.1 "Proposed Park System Additions -City & UGA"). PAGE 38 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT FERNDALE ·",}9 infrastructure Gap deductions applied to areas in the City and unincorporated UGA that wt11 rely on owners/developers of private property to help fund and/or build road and utdity.infrastructure to enabie development Ar<'-as WPff evaluatE'd by City staff intorm€d by adopted infrastructure pians a11d grouped into (ategories based on estimated development horizons. The'>e d(0 duction~ are not intendf'd to reflect !and eliminated from the bui!dable supply, rather they are intended to r€'flect pot~ntia! delays in avaii,}bi!ity of dev0lopm1?nt capacity due to thP timP r(1 quirf!d to rnmp!Ptl:' road and utility infrastructure syst<?rr.s. Key Estimated Potential Delays & Deductions Short-Term 10% Mid-Term 20% Long-Term 30% -Longer-Term 50% City Limits Urban Growth Area 11 LOY.l' \\Jhot(t;.,"l t fl..fLr7 Miles 0 0.5 1 PAGE 39 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Environmental Constraints Deductions for environmental constraints (critical areas) were made to all developable land including ALL residential, commercial, and industrial zones. Deductions were based on the best-available data in the City's GIS system following criteria set out in Bellingham Municipal Code (BMC) Chapter 16.55. Wetlands were buffered with 150-foot buffers based on a composite of all mapped wetland delineations, and wetland reconnaissance inventories from 2015, 2003, and 1992 (NWI data from the 1980's was not used due to the relatively complete coverage by more recent/accurate studies). In addition, a staff- generated potential wetlands layer was created from color-infrared imagery and LiDAR data to fill gaps across properties where access limitations prevent on-the- ground mapping of wetland systems. Other critical areas layers used include steep slopes, FEMA floodways and floodplains (2019 data), and regulated shorelines and stream/riparian corridors. Shorelines were buffered using adopted Shoreline Master Program (SMP) development setbacks designated for each reach. Stream/riparian buffers were based on distances specified for each reach in BMC Table 16.55.500(A). WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT Market Factors The Review and Evaluation Program Methodology includes a market factor deduction to account for land not likely to develop during the remainder of the 2021 to 2036 planning period. The criteria considered while developing the market factor(s) for Bellingham's buildable lands analysis include examination of improvement to total value ratios, transaction and conversion history, a property owner survey, targeted outreach to specific owners and developers, and comparative studies of market factors from other buildable lands jurisdictions. The market factors developed for Bellingham's analysis are arranged in a tiered system corresponding to the complexities involved in development and the relative return or benefit to property owners and developers. Vacant land usually presents the fewest challenges to development, partially-utilized land is typically more complex to develop due to existing ongoing uses on the property during development, and underutilized land is often the most-complex due to the requisite re- location or change of non-conforming uses accompanying redevelopment. The relative return or benefit to property owners and developers is closely related to the zoned density or intensity of developable land. Land zoned for higher density or intensity uses will PAGE 40 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 ' usually provide a bigger return or benefit to owners and developers making it more likely they will develop sooner. And land zoned for lower density or intensity uses will usually provide a lower return or benefit to owners making it less likely to develop sooner. The market factors assigned to each tier are as follows: vacant higher density/intensity = 20%, vacant lower density/intensity = 25%, partially-utilized higher density/intensity= 25%, partially-utilized lower density/intensity = 30%, underutilized higher density/intensity = 30%, underutilized lower density/intensity = 35%. A technical memo explaining the details of Bellingham's market factor analysis can be found here https://maps.cob.org/resources/images/pcd/Bell inghamMarketFactor TechnicalMemo Septl0t h2021.pdf State-Owned Lands The 2016 Bellingham Comprehensive Plan Land Capacity Analysis included some development capacity on approximately 266 acres of land owned by Washington State. This land located in one block west of Bellingham International Airport, and in three blocks lying north of and parallel to the Mt Baker Highway has been excluded from the developable land supply in this analysis. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 41 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Residential Development Exhibit 14. Residential Development, Achieved and Assumed Densities, City of Bellingham, 2016-2021 Development Acres Dwelling Achieved Density Assumed Zoning Category Type Developed Units Density (Units/Acre) (Units/Acre) Min Max Single Family Single Family 138.2 586 4.24 0.20 14.52 Multifamily 29.9 321 10.74 7.26 7.26 Multifamily Single Family 20.1 149 7.40 N/A N/A Multifamily 32.2 748 23.25 4.04 43.56 Mixed-Use Single Family 28.5 169 5.93 6.00 6.00 Multifamily 3.3 93 28.24 6.00 17.42 Urban Village Single Family 0.5 5 9.96 8.71 8.71 Multifamily 8.7 524 59.93 8.71 69.70 Commercial Multifamily 20.6 671 32.55 12.10 48.40 Institutional Multifamily 1.5 76 50.97 N/A N/A Industrial Multifamily 0.2 6.19 N/A N/A Sources: City of Bellingham, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: "Density Assumed" is the assumed density for evaluation of land suitable for development by zone. City of Bellingham zoning districts are grouped into seven collapsed, generalized categories. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 42 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 15. Residential Land Supply, Bellingham UGA, 2021-2036 UGA Total Single Multifamily Mixed-Urban Commercial Institutional Industrial Public Airport Family Use Village Operations Vacant Land Gross Acres 1,291.19 802.97 322.52 119.16 2.94 41.41 2.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 Critical Areas 688.47 426.50 183.11 48.51 0.52 27.81 2.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 Future Public Uses 63.66 39.59 15.90 5.87 0.14 2.04 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 55.48 41.84 8.74 4.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 24.18 14.75 5.74 2.99 0.11 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 97.79 70.81 11.48 14.22 0.11 1.16 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 Market Factor 75.72 45.29 19.51 8.53 0.41 1.96 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net Acres 285.91 164.20 78.04 34.14 1.64 7.86 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 Partially-Used Land Gross Acres 1,378.76 845.05 141.46 321.62 53.25 17.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Critical Areas 567.27 421.40 49.59 84.38 4.89 7.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 23.84 8.42 0.40 15.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 39.38 20.76 4.57 11.11 2.42 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 165.59 99.65 9.15 53.34 2.42 1.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Market Factor 149.18 77.22 19.44 39.45 10.88 2.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net Acres 433.50 217.59 58.31 118.34 32.64 6.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Underutilized Land Gross Acres 69.84 0.00 25.64 1.15 29.40 9.92 3.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 Critical Areas 14.96 0.00 8.29 0.02 0.81 2.65 3.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 2.72 0.00 0.87 0.06 1.43 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 4.22 0.00 1.73 0.27 1.43 0.73 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 Market Factor 14.38 0.00 4.42 0.24 7.72 1.85 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net Acres 33.56 0.00 10.32 0.56 18.01 4.32 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sources: City of Bellingham, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: City of Bellingham zoning districts are grouped into nine collapsed, generalized categories. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 43 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 16. Developable Residential Land Capacity, Bellingham UGA, 2021-2036 UGA Single-Multi-Mixed-Urban Commercial Institutional Industrial Public Airport family family Use Village Operations Net Developable Residential Acres (Vacant, PU, UU) 752.98 381.79 146.67 153.03 52.29 18.80 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 Single Family Developable Acres 485.56 374.47 110.00 1.09 Assumed Single Family Density (units/acre) Subtotal Single Family Unit Capacity 2,994 2,325 660 9 Existing Single Family Units 1,646 419 370 314 366 28 146 2 Pending Single Family Units 1,872 1,164 505 123 14 65 Master Planned Single Family Units 75 58 17 Subtotal: Net Single Family Unit Capacity 4,200 3,070 505 527 15 65 17 Potential Occupied Single Family Units 4,095 2,993 492 514 15 63 16 Single Family Population Capacity 10,233 7.480 1,230 1,285 37 158 41 2 Multifamily Developable Acres 267:42 7.32 146.67 43.03 51.20 18.80 0.39 Assumed Multifamily Density (units/acre) Subtotal Multifamily Unit Capacity 5,544 65 2,791 420 1,842 411 15 Existing Multifamily Units 122 27 25 20 20 10 20 Pending Multifamily Units 4,903 124 927 758 1,477 1,617 Master Planned Multifamily Units 1,492 413 760 200 119 Subtotal: Net Multifamily Unit Capacity 11,863 189 3,693 1,571 4,059 2,018 215 119 Potential Occupied Multifamily Units 11,436 182 3,560 1,514 3,913 1,945 207 115 Multifamily Population Capacity 21,159 338 6,586 2,801 7,239 3,599 384 212 Net Dwelling Unit Capacity 16,063 3,259 4,198 2,098 4,074 2,083 215 135 Potential Occupied Dwelling Units 15,531 3,175 4,052 2,028 3,928 2,009 207 131 Population Capacity 31,392 7,818 7,816 4,086 7,276 3,757 384 253 2 Remaining Population Growth to Accommodate (2021-2036) 20,720 Population Capacity Surplus (Deficit) 10,672 WHATCOM COUNTY PAGE 44 BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Sources: City of Bellingham, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: Bellingham UGA zoning districts are grouped into nine collapsed, generalized categories. Commercial and Industrial Development Exhibit 17. Nonresidential Development, Achieved and Assumed Densities, City of Bellingham, 2016-2021 Zoning Designation Development Acres Built Square Achieved Assumed Density (FAR) Type Developed Feet Density (FAR) Min Max Single Family Commercial 7.6 22,776 0.07 N/A N/A Multifamily Commercial 1.4 17,966 0.28 N/A N/A Mixed-Use Commercial 21.7 230,519 0.24 0.40 0.40 Industrial 0.0 0 0.00 0.40 0.40 Urban Village Commercial 3.1 81,619 0.61 0.40 3.50 Industrial 2.4 58,710 0.57 0.40 0.40 Commercial Commercial 10.8 189,313 0.40 0.40 2.50 Institutional Commercial 12.3 188,774 0.35 0.40 0.40 Industrial Commercial 12.0 155,697 0.30 N/,A N/A Industrial 45.2 466,052 0.24 0.25 0.25 Public Commercial 50.2 323,042 0.15 0.40 0.40 Industrial 1.4 9,309 0.15 N/A N/A Airport Operations Commercial 8.2 149,046 0.42 0.25 0.25 Industrial 0.0 0 0.00 0.25 0.25 Sources: City of Bellingham, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: Assumed Density is the assumed density for evaluation of land suitable for development by zone. Bellingham UGA zoning districts are grouped into nine collapsed, generalized categories. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 45 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 18. Developable Nonresidential Land Supply, Bellingham UGA, 2021-2036 UGA Total Single Multifamil Mixed-Urban Commercial Institutional Industrial Public Airport Family Use Village oeerations y Vacant Land Gross Acres 819.40 0.00 O.Ql 24.40 3.38 4 l.61 Critical Areas 562.80 0.00 0.05 10.32 0.23 27.81 Future Public Uses 40.40 0.00 0.00 l.20 0.17 2.05 Infrastructure Gaps 22.55 0.00 0.00 0.54 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction l.35 0.00 0.00 0.62 0.15 0.59 Infrastructure Deduction 20.13 0.00 0.00 2.15 0.15 l.18 Market Factor 34.43 0.00 0.00 l.91 0.54 2.00 Net Acres 137.73 0.00 0.01 7.66 2.15 7.99 Partially-Used Land Gross Acres 359.15 0.00 0.24 35.74 25.13 17.52 Critical Areas 146.67 0.00 0.09 9.38 2.92 7.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 10.20 0.00 0.00 l.67 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 2.88 0.00 0.01 l.23 l.11 0.53 Infrastructure Deduction 22.57 0.00 0.02 5.93 l. l l l.05 Market Factor 44.21 0.00 0.03 4.38 5.00 2.23 Net Acres 132.62 0.00 0.10 13.15 14.99 6.70 Underutilized Land Gross Acres 444.57 0.00 0.03 0.13 3.74 10.70 Critical Areas 273.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 2.65 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 0.59 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.18 0.40 Infrastructure Deduction 16.91 0.00 0.00 O.Q3 0.18 0.81 Market Factor 45.97 0.00 0.01 O.Q3 0.97 2.05 Net Acres 107.25 0.00 0.02 0.06 2.27 4.79 Sources: City of Bellingham, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: Bellingham UGA zoning districts are grouped into nine collapsed, generalized categories. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT 6.58 743.27 0.08 0.00 6.07 518.24 0.08 0.00 0.32 36.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 16.64 0.00 0.00 0.03 29.95 0.00 0.00 0.14 119.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 279.05 0.00 l.48 0.00 126.77 0.00 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.38 0.00 0.10 0.00 32.34 0.00 0.22 0.00 97.03 0.00 0.65 3.72 426.24 0.00 0.00 3.18 267.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 15.84 0.00 0.00 0.15 42.76 0.00 0.00 0.34 99.77 0.00 0.00 PAGE 46 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 19. Developable Nonresidential Land Capacity, Bellingham UGA, 2021-2036 UGA Multi-Single-Mixed-Urban Commercial Institutional Industrial Public Airport fami!)' familt Use Village O~erations Net Developable Employment Acres (Vacant, PU, UU) 377.60 0.00 0.13 20.87 19.41 19.48 Commercial Developable Acres 54.06 0.13 18.89 14.75 19.48 Subtotal: Commercial Capacity (SF) 2,330,253 2,203 329,224 1,400,226 586,709 Existing Commercial Space (SF) 716,719 4,287 5,423 422,903 224,113 Pending Commercial Space (SF) 1,095,040 78,100 6,933 26,239 140,669 268,607 Master Planned Commercial Space (SF) 2,528,209 210,603 617,200 - Subtotal: Net Commercial Capacity (SF) 5,346,344 78,100 9,136 566,066 1,775,050 631,203 Potential Occupied Commercial Space (SF) 5,079,027 74,195 8,679 537,763 1,686,297 599,643 Commercial Employment Capacity 11,542 168 20 1,222 3,832 1,362 Industrial Developable Acres 323.54 1.97 4.66 Subtotal: Industrial Capacity (SF) 3,566,662 34,347 81,132 Existing Industrial Space (SF) 871,274 79,196 26,762 5,496 135,082 81,437 Pending Industrial Space (SF) 1,016,738 28,382 45,000 Master Planned Industrial Space (SF) 981,055 77,213 376,000 Subtotal: Net Industrial Capacity (SF) 4,952,113 111,560 416,473 45,000 Potential Occupied Industrial Space (SF) 4,704,507 l 05,982 395,649 42,750 Industrial Employment Capacity 7,129 161 599 65 Net Commercial & Industrial Capacity (SF) 10,298,457 78,100 9,136 677,626 2,191,523 676,203 Potential Occupied Commercial & Industrial Capacity (SF) 9,783,534 74,195 8,679 643,745 2,081,947 642,393 Empls,yment Capacity 18,671 168 20 1,383 4,431 1,427 Remaining Employment Growth to Accommodate (2021-2036) 16,580 Emplo~ment Capacity Surplus (Deficit} 2,091 Sources: City of Bellingham, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: Bellingham UGA zoning districts are grouped into nine collapsed, generalized categories. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT 0.48 316.59 0.00 0.65 0.48 0.32 8,373 3,518 59,993 11,813 463,912 98,767 1,294,730 39,397 266,279 l 00,000 1,314,916 503,309 365,046 103,518 1,249,170 478,144 346,793 98,342 2,839 1,087 788 224 316.59 0.32 -3,447,665 3,518 543,301 912,841 30,515 172,841 355,000 -3,990,046 30,515 358,518 -3,790,544 28,989 340,592 5,743 44 516 1,314,916 4,493,355 395,561 462,036 1,249,170 4,268,688 375,783 438,934 2,839 6,830 832 740 PAGE 47 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 2. Birch Bay UGA The Birch Bay Urban Growth Area is one of three Non-City UGAs in Whatcom County. The UGA has a projected total allocation of 12,822 residents and 1,140 jobs by 2036. The UGA has a projected growth allocation of 4,593 new residents and 4 7 4 new jobs between 2016 and 2036 (Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2). Achieved Growth 2016-2021 Based on permit data collected between 2016 and 2021, occupancy, persons per household and square feet per employee assumptions, new construction in the Birch Bay UGA accommodated an estimated 389 new residents and 55 new jobs over this five-year period (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). The Birch Bay UGA achieved an overall residential density of 4.5 units per net acre between 2016 and 2021. This is below the 5.0 to 10.0 units per net acre planned in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Exhibit 11). The Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan does not have adopted planned densities for commercial or industrial uses. Between 2016 and 2021, the UGA has achieved a commercial FAR of 0.06. The Commercial FAR is based upon a limited number of commercial building WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT permits (eight) issued between April 1, 2016 and March 31, 2021. Six of the eight building permits were in commercial zones (the other two were in residential zones). Five of the six permits in commercial zones were for commercial storage buildings (the other was for a covered patio). The UGA did not have industrial development between 2016 and 2021 (Exhibit 11). Population and Employment Assumptions Occupancy rate and population and employment assumptions for estimating future growth capacity in the Birch Bay UGA are: • 75.0% Single Family occupancy rate • 51.0% Multifamily occupancy rate • 95.0% Commercial and Industrial occupancy rate • 2.38 Single Family persons per household • 2.22 Multifamily persons per household • 532 Commercial square feet per employee The Birch Bay UGA is characterized by a mix of single family and multifamily residences, as well as historically high seasonal housing. There are also a number of businesses in the UGA. PAGE 48 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Population Capacity 2021-2036 The Birch Bay UGA will need to accommodate 4,204 more residents and 419 more jobs between 2021 and 2036 under current planning assumptions (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). Based on achieved densities between 2016 and 2021 and other planning assumptions, Whatcom County is assuming future densities ranging between 4.4 unit~ per acre and 10.0 units per acre for single family development, depending on the specific zone. Future density assumptions range between 5.9 and 17.0 units per acre for multifamily development (Exhibit 20). Density assumptions for the Suitable Land Tool, which estimates future development capacity, are further described below (achieved density is based on building permits issued between 2016 and 2021): Urban Residential (UR4) -The achieved net density from the Data Reporting Tool for the UR4 zone is 4.4 units/acre for single family development. This net density is used in the Suitable Land Tool to estimate capacity to accommodate development in the future. Urban Residential Medium Density (URM6) - For single family, the achieved net density from the Data Reporting Tool for the URM6 zone is 3.3 units/acre. However, this is likely WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT not reflective of future development. While there is currently not a minimum density in the URM6, the County Comp Plan encourages development at 5-10 units per acre in the Birch Bay UGA. For multi-family, the achieved net density from the Data Reporting Tool for the URM6 zone is 5.9 units/acre. This density is used in the Suitable Land Tool for both single family and multi-family land. Urban Residential Medium Density (URM24) -The URM24 zone did not experience any residential development from 2016-2021 (see Data Reporting Tool). The URM24 zone has a minimum net density of 10 dwelling units/acre and a maximum gross density of 24 dwellings/acre (WCC 20.22.252). A density of 10 units per net acre is used for single family land and 17 units per net acre for multi-family land in the Suitable Land Tool. Resort Commercial (RC) -For single family, the achieved net density from the Data Reporting Tool for the RC zone is 8. 3 units/acre. This density is used in the Suitable Land Tool for future single family development. The RC zone did not experience any multi-family residential development from 2016-2021 (see Data Reporting Tool). The RC zone allows multi-family zoning at a maximum gross density of 22 units per acre (WCC 20.64.262). A density of 17 units per net acre PAGE 49 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 for multi-family development is used in the Suitable Land Tool (same as the URM24 zone). General Commercial (GC) -The GC zone did not experience any residential development from 2016-2021 (see Data Reporting Tool). Therefore, the achieved density for the RC zone (8.3 units/net acre) is used in the Suitable Land Tool for single family land in the GC zone. The GC zone allows multi-family zoning at a maximum density of 18 units per acre (WCC 20.62.066). A density of 17 units per net acre is used for multi-family development in the Suitable Land Tool (same as URM24 and RC zones). The Birch Bay UGA has estimated net land capacity for population growth of about 297 acres (Exhibit 21), with a total estimated potential occupied unit capacity of 1,257 dwelling units. Based on persons per household assumptions, the Birch Bay UGA has an estimated population capacity of 2,950, indicating an estimated population capacity deficit of 1,254 for the 2021-2036 time period (Exhibit 22). Housing Needs by Type The Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 3-Housing, Chart 3 -Estimated Dwelling Units Needed, page 3-8) indicates that the Birch Bay UGA has a need for 3,106 WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT new single-family dwelling units during the 2013-2036 planning period (the Comprehensive Plan does not estimate multifamily housing needs for Birch Bay). The calculation for Chart 3 in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan included building activity from 2013. Therefore, the analysis below includes permit data from April 1, 2013, even though the planning period for this Buildable Lands Report is from 2016. • Between April 1, 2013 and March 31, 2021, Whatcom County performed final inspections on 304 single-family and 39 multi-family units in the Birch Bay UGA. Comparing units built and the needs indicated on Chart 3, the Birch Bay UGA needs an additional 2,802 single-family units between 2021 and 2036. • The Birch Bay UGA has an estimated 2021- 2036 capacity for 1,333 single-family and 504 multi-family housing units (Exhibit 22). The capacity to accommodate single family residential housing in the Birch Bay UGA is not sufficient to accommodate the single family dwelling units needed in the planning period as established in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 3-Housing, Chart 3). PAGE 50 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Employment Capacity 2021-2036 Whatcom County is using an average of the small city F ARs for future commercial development, since there are limited data on achieved densities in the Birch Bay UGA (Exhibit 23). The Birch Bay UGA has estimated net land capacity for employment growth of 44.3 acres (Exhibit 24), with a total estimated potential occupied commercial capacity of 305,008 square feet. Based on square feet per employee assumptions, the Birch Bay UGA has an estimated employment capacity of 573, indicating an estimated employment capacity surplus of 154 for the 2021-2036 time period (Exhibit 25). Regulatory Changes The County has evaluated development regulations adopted in the review period (April 1, 2016 -March 31, 2021). Only Ordinance 2019-005 could prevent assigned densities from being achieved or impact the quantity of land suitable for development in the remainder of the 20-year planning period (2021-2036). In an e-mail of October 6, 2021, a representative of the Whatcom County Public Works River & Flood Division stated: WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT ... the 2019 revisions were done mainly to reflect updated flood study and the most recent just adopted in 2021 was for compliance with building freeboard required for CRS [Community Rating System] credit, nothing to do with 'supply of land'. That being said, the flood study did change the Base Flood Elevations and floodplain boundaries in those areas and the FEMA Biological Opinion does restrict density in the floodplain ... " A September 30, 2021 River & Flood Division memo attached to the e-mail states that the Special Flood Hazard Area is: ... designated Critical Area and/or Habitat Conservation Area (HCA) per WCC Title- 16. As such, creating additional 'buildable' lots within a Critical Area or HCA may be prohibited. For further information reference WCC 16.16.420 -Frequently Flooded Areas ... Pursuant to the Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program Methodology, Whatcom County deducted floodplains from the buildable land supply. PAGE 51 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Infrastructure Gaps Whatcom County has reviewed capital facility plans and/or consulted with service providers. Based upon these actions, the County has not identified any infrastructure gaps that would prevent service providers from supplying planned capital facilities to developable land in the Birch Bay UGA within the planning period (2021-2036). Analysis of Comprehensive Plan Objectives and Reasonable Measures Residential development in the Birch Bay UGA between 2016 and 2021 has occurred at an overall net density less than anticipated in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan. Additionally, there is not enough capacity in the Birch Bay UGA, with current density assumptions, to accommodate the projected residential growth in the remaining portion of the planning period (between 2021 and 2036). The single family unit capacity in the Birch Bay UGA is insufficient to accommodate the estimated dwelling units needed between 2021 and 2036. Therefore, reasonable measures are appropriate. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan Goal 2P states: . .. The County should approve new residential developments at overall average net densities as shown below, while respecting unique characteristics of each community: Birch Bay -five to ten units per net acre ... The overall achieved residential density in the Birch Bay UGA was 4.5 units per net acre during the review period (2016-2021). Lots in the Birch Bay UGA have historically been created at densities that the land owner or developer chose. The UR4 zone has a minimum net density of 4 dwelling units/acre, but this is below the Comprehensive Plan goal of five to ten units per net acre. Several other zones in the UGA do not have minimum density requirements. Increasing residential density, including density in zones that allow single family dwellings, would provide additional capacity for growth within the UGA. Therefore, adjustments to the zoning code are appropriate to better implement the Comprehensive Plan. The Growth Management Act indicates that one of the purposes of the review and evaluation program is to: PAGE 52 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Identify reasonable measures, other than adjusting urban growth areas, that will be taken to comply with the requirements of this chapter. Reasonable measures are those actions necessary to reduce the differences between growth and development assumptions and targets contained in the countywide planning policies and the county and city comprehensive plans with actual development patterns ... (RCW 36. 70A.215(1)(b)). The Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program Methodology (February 10, 2022) identifies minimum density requirements and maximum lot sizes as potential reasonable measures (Appendix A). Specifically, the Methodology states: Zoning ordinances can establish minimum and maximum densities in each zone to ensure that development occurs as envisioned for the community (page 46). The State Department of Commerce Housing Memorandum: Issues Affecting Housing Availability and Affordability (June 2019) identifies "Reasonable Measures as Tools for Increasing Housing Availability and Affordability" including: WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT Allow or require small lots (5,000 square feet or less) for single-family neighborhoods within UGAs. Small lots limit sprawl, contribute to the more efficient use of land, and promote densities that can support transit. Small lots also provide expanded housing ownership opportunities to broader income ranges and provide additional variety to available housing types (page 116). In October 2021, Whatcom County adopted a reasonable measure increasing the allowed density in the UR4 zone in the Birch Bay UGA, if public water and sewer are available and density credits are purchased, from 4 dwellings/acre to 5 dwellings per acre (Ordinance 2021-059). This ordinance also reduced the conventional minimum lot size for residential development in the UR4 zone in the Birch Bay UGA from 8,000 square feet to 4,500 square feet when public water and sewer are available. In November 2017, Whatcom County adopted an ordinance allowing increased density for single family development in the RC zone through the planned unit development process, if density credits are purchased (Ordinance 2017-062). Other potential reasonable measures the County may consider for the Birch Bay UGA include: PAGE 53 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 • Increasing the minimum net residential density and/or adopting maximum lot size in the UR4 zone (WCC 20.20); • Adopting minimum net residential density requirements and/or maximum lot size in the URM6 zone (WCC 20.22); • Adopting minimum net residential density requirements and/or maximum lot size in the GC zone (WCC 20.62); and/or • Adopting minimum net residential density requirements and/or maximum lot size in the RC zone (WCC 20.64). The UR4, URM6, GC, and RC zones all allow single family dwelling units. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 54 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Residential Development Exhibit 20. Residential Development, Achieved and Assumed Densities, Birch Bay UGA, 2016-2021 Zoning Development Acres Dwelling Achieved Density Designation Type Developed Units Density Assumed {Units/Acre) {Units/Acre) UR4 Single Family 38.3 168 4.39 4.39 URM6 Single Family 7.6 25 3.31 5.89 M ult if amily 4.6 27 5.89 5.89 URM24 Single Family N/A N/A N/A 10.00 Multifamily N/A N/A N/A 17.00 RC Single Family 1.4 12 8.32 8.32 M ult if amily N/A N/A N/A 17.00 GC Single Family N/A N/A N/A 8.32 Multifamily N/A N/A N/A 17.00 Sources: Whatcom County, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: "Density Assumed" is the assumed density for evaluation of land suitable for development by zone. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 55 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 21. Residential Land Supply, Birch Bay UGA, 2021-2036 UGA Total UR4 Vacant Land Gross Acres 816.99 471.94 Critical Areas 450.86 277.61 Future Public Uses 15.80 14.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 17.52 9.02 Infrastructure Deduction 74.76 41.48 Market Factor 43.87 22.07 Net Acres 214.18 107.77 Partially-Used Land Gross Acres 232.69 109.12 Critical Areas 84.62 48.97 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 7.40 3.01 Infrastructure Deduction 30.86 13.84 Market Factor 29.65 11.69 Net Acres 80.16 31.62 Underutilized Land Gross Acres 4.16 0.00 Critical Areas 0.28 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 0.19 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 0.48 0.00 Market Factor 0.87 0.00 Net Acres 2.34 0.00 Sources: Whatcom County, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT URM6 URM24 146.62 98.96 43.69 69.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.15 1.47 22.13 5.30 12.86 3.85 62.79 18.82 64.66 0.00 14.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.52 0.00 10.84 0.00 10.01 0.00 27.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RC GC NC 62.65 36.82 0.00 37.86 22.19 0.00 0.00 l.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.24 0.64 0.00 4.26 1.59 0.00 3.28 l.80 0.00 16.01 8.80 0.00 52.63 6.28 0.00 20.73 0.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.59 0.28 0.00 5.49 0.69 0.00 6.70 1.25 0.00 18.11 3.37 0.00 0.00 4.16 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.48 0.00 0.00 0.87 0.00 0.00 2.34 0.00 PAGE 56 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 22. Developable Residential Land Capacity, Birch Bay UGA, 2021-2036 UGA UR4 Net Developable Residential Acres (Vacant, PU, UU) 296.68 139.39 Single Family Developable Acres 249.48 139.39 Assumed Single Family Density (units/acre) 4 Subtotal Single Family Unit Capacity 1,358 612 Existing Single Family Units 188 67 Pending Single Family Units 145 Master Planned Single Family Units Subtotal: Net Single Family Unit Capacity 1,333 545 Potential Occupied Single Family Units 1,000 409 Single Family Population Capacity 2,380 973 Multifamily Developable Acres 47.20 Assumed Multifamily Density (units/acre) Subtotal Multifamily Unit Capacity 652 Existing Multifamily Units 148 Pending Multifamily Units Master Planned Multifamily Units Subtotal: Net Multifamily Unit Capacity 504 Potential Occupied Multifamily Units 257 Multifamily Population Capacity 570 Net Dwelling Unit Capacity 1,837 545 Potential Occupied Dwelling Units 1,257 409 Population Capacity 2,950 973 Remaining Population Growth to Accommodate (2021-2036) 4,204 Population Capacity Surplus (Deficit) (1,254) Sources: Whatcom County, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT URM6 URM24 89.85 18.82 76.37 9.41 6 lO 450 94 95 145 500 94 375 71 893 168 13.48 9.41 6 17 79 160 35 44 160 22 82 50 181 544 254 397 152 943 349 RC GC NC 34.12 14.51 0.00 17.06 7.25 8 8 142 60 4 4 18 138 56 104 42 246 100 17.06 7.25 17 17 290 123 113 177 123 90 63 200 139 315 179 194 105 446 239 PAGE 57 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Commercial and Industrial Development Exhibit 23. Nonresidential Development, Achieved and Assumed Densities, Birch Bay UGA, 2016-2021 Zoning Development Acres Built Square Achieved Assumed Designation Tyee Develoeed Feet Density (FAR) Density (FAR) UR4 Commercial 7.1 3,780 0.01 N/A RC Commercial 0.6 368 0.01 0.18 GC Commercial 4.1 26,480 0.15 0.18 NC Commercial N/A N/A N/A 0.18 Sources: Whatcom County, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: Assumed Density is the assumed density for evaluation of land suitable for development by zone. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 58 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 24. Developable Nonresidential Land Supply, Birch Bay UGA, 2021-2036 UGA Total UR4 Vacant Land Gross Acres 103.67 0.00 Critical Areas 64.19 0.00 Future Public Uses 4.20 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 1.76 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 4.44 0.00 Market Factor 4.94 0.00 Net Acres 24.13 0.00 Partially-Used Land Gross Acres 20.50 0.00 Critical Areas 3.91 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 0.83 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 2.23 0.00 Market Factor 3.65 0.00 Net Acres 9.88 0.00 Underutilized Land Gross Acres 17.52 0.00 Critical Areas 0.64 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 0.84 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 1.91 0.00 Market Factor 3.81 0.00 Net Acres 10.31 0.00 Sources: Whatcom County, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT URM6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 URM24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RC GC NC 6.96 85.91 10.80 4.21 51.77 8.21 0.00 4.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 1.50 0.13 0.47 3.71 0.26 0.36 4.20 0.37 1.78 20.52 1.82 5.85 14.65 0.00 2.30 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.65 0.00 0.61 1.62 0.00 0.74 2.91 0.00 2.01 7.87 0.00 0.00 9.70 7.82 0.00 0.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.45 0.39 0.00 1.12 0.78 0.00 2.02 1.79 0.00 5.46 4.85 PAGE 59 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 25. Developable Nonresidential Land Capacity, Birch Bay UGA, 2021-2036 UGA UR4 Net Developable Employment Acres (Vacant, PU, UU) 44.32 0.00 Commercial Developable Acres 44.32 Assumed Commercial Density (FAR) Subtotal: Commercial Capacity (SF) 355,214 Existing Commercial Space (SF) 70,779 3,848 Pending Commercial Space (SF) 19,776 Master Planned Commercial Space (SF) Subtotal: Net Commercial Capacity (SF) 321,061 Potential Occupied Commercial Space (SF) 305,008 Commercial Employment Capacity 573 Industrial Developable Acres Assumed Industrial Density (FAR) Subtotal: Industrial Capacity (SF) Existing Industrial Space (SF) 43,012 2,402 Pending Industrial Space (SF) Master Planned Industrial Space (SF) Subtotal: Net Industrial Capacity (SF) Potential Occupied Industrial Space (SF) Industrial Employment Capacity Net Commercial & Industrial Capacity (SF) 321,061 Potential Occupied Commercial & Industrial 305,008 Employment Capacity 573 Remaining Employment Growth to Accommodate (2021-2036) 419 Employment Capacity Surplus (Deficit) 154 Sources: Whatcom County, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT URM6 URM24 0.00 0.00 7,663 6,768 RC GC NC 3.79 33.85 6.68 3.79 33.85 6.68 0.2 0.2 0.2 30,387 271,322 53,505 35,726 21,742 1,800 19,776 269,356 51,705 255,888 49,120 481 92 756 33,086 269,356 51,705 255,888 49,120 481 92 PAGE 60 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 3. Blaine UGA The Blaine Urban Growth Area is projected to encompass 9,585 residents and 5,159 employees by 2036. The UGA has a projected growth allocation of 3,838 population and 1,823 employment between 2016 and 2036 (Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2). Achieved Growth 2016-2021 Based on permit data collected between 2016 and 2021 and occupancy and persons per household and square feet per employee assumptions, the Blaine UGA grew by an estimated 551 population (91 % within the City of Blaine) and 245 employment (100% within the City of Blaine) (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). Between 2016 and 2021, the City of Blaine achieved densities greater than planned for residential uses, 4.4 units per acre achieved compared to 4.25 average across single family residential zones adopted by the City of Blaine. The achieved density within the incorporated portions of the UGA also fall within the planned densities of 4.0 to 6.0 units per acre adopted in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan for the City of Blaine (Exhibit 11). WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT The unincorporated portions of the Blaine UGA have an achieved residential density of 4. 7 units per acre, matching the densities achieved within incorporated portions of the UGA (Exhibit 11). The City of Blaine has not adopted F ARs. However, for purposes of the Data Reporting Tool, Blaine developed F ARs based on the bulk, dimensional, and performance standards defined in municipal code for non-residential zones. The City of Blaine developed planned F ARs for commercial zones averaging 0.80. Across all commercial development between 2016-2021, the achieved FAR is 0.31. No commercial development occurred during the period in unincorporated areas of the UGA. The average planned FAR for industrial zones is 0.89 for the City of Blaine. Between 2016 and 2021, the achieved FAR is 0.30. No industrial development occurred in the unincorporated portions of the UGA. Whatcom County has not adopted planned densities for commercial or industrial development (Exhibit 11). PAGE 61 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Population and Employment Assumptions Specific occupancy rate and population and employment density assumptions for the Blaine UGA are: • 87.8% Single Family occupancy rate • 86.9% Multifamily occupancy rate • 95.0% Commercial and Industrial occupancy rate • 2.4 79 Single Family persons per household • 2.009 Multifamily persons per household • 531 and 739 respectively Commercial and Industrial square feet per employee The Blaine UGA has an estimated 3,287 population and 1,578 employment growth remaining to accommodate between 2021 and 2036 (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). Population Capacity 2021-2036 Based on achieved densities between 2016 and 2021 and planning assumptions, City of Blaine planners are assuming future densities ranging between 3.0 units per acre and 20.0 units per acre for single family residential, WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT depending on the specific zone. Future density assumptions range between 4.0 and 24.0 units per acre for multifamily zones (Exhibit 26). The Blaine UGA has estimated net land capacity for population growth of 684.97 acres (Exhibit 27), with a total estimated potential occupied unit capacity of 4,857 dwelling units. Based on persons per household assumptions, the Blaine UGA has an estimated population capacity of 11,324, indicating an estimated population capacity surplus of 8,037 (Exhibit 28). Housing Needs by Type The Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 3-Housing, Chart 3 -Estimated Dwelling Units Needed, page 3-8) indicates that Blaine has a need for 1,548 single-family and 678 multi-family new dwelling units during the 2013-2036 planning period. The calculation for Chart 3 in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan included building activity from 2013. Therefore, the analysis below includes permit data from April 1, 2013, even though the planning period for this Buildable Lands Report is from 2016. • Between April 1, 2013 and March 31, 2021, Blaine issued building permits for 343 single-family/mobile home units, 5 accessory dwelling units, and multi-family PAGE 62 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 units 179 (this includes duplexes). Comparing units built and the needs indicated on Chart 3, Blaine needs an additional 1,205 single-family/mobile home units and 499 multi-family units between 2021 and 2036. • The City and unincorporated UGA have an estimated 2021-2036 net capacity for 3,794 single-family and 1,756 multi-family housing units. These capacities are sufficient to accommodate the dwelling unit types needed in the planning period as established in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 3-Housing, Chart 3). Employment Capacity 2021-2036 Based on achieved densities between 2016 and 2021 and planning assumptions, City of Blaine planners are assuming future commercial FARs ranging between 0.60 and 1.00, depending on the specific zone. Assumed future industrial FARs range between 0. 75 and 1.00 (Exhibit 29). The Blaine UGA has estimated net land capacity for employment growth of 165. 76 acres (Exhibit 30), with a total estimated potential occupied commercial and industrial capacity of 5.38 million square feet. Based on WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT square feet per employee assumptions, the Blaine UGA has an estimated employment capacity of 8,570, indicating an estimated employment capacity surplus of 6,992 (Exhibit 31). Regulatory Changes Subsequent to the adoption of the 2016 Comprehensive Plan and through April of 2021, the City of Blaine adopted regulatory changes that either impacted the amount of land available for development or modified the densities and mix of uses allowed on buildable lands. These changes are listed in the Data Reporting Tool worksheet. In summary, those updates include the following: • Updates to the City's Central Business District zoning designation that allow it to function as an urban village. Examples include zero-lot line setbacks, multi-use and multi-family development, and higher allowable impervious surfaces. • Adoption of a multi-family tax exemption (MFTE) to encourage the construction of affordable, multi-family housing. • Updates to the Wharf District Master Plan to permit additional space for PAGE 63 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 marine commercial and industrial development. As of the issuance of this report, the City has additionally adopted updates to allow work/live units in the Manufacturing zone, and modified the Highway Commercial "C" zone to permit a greater range of land uses. The City in early 2022 also adopted legislation to identify the Hearing Examiner as the hearing body for quasi-judicial decisions, ensuring a more predictable and legally sound process for land use decisions. The City will be updating the Critical Areas Ordinance in 2023. Infrastructure Gaps Blaine has identified a lack of capacity for sewer service in East Blaine, however the City of Blaine Capital Improvement Plan for Wastewater Utility: 2022-2027 anticipates needed capacity being restored pursuant to the funded "G Street Sewer Improvement -East Blaine Pipe Capacity" project. Subsequent to the improvements being completed in 2022, the City will be able to supply this planned wastewater capital facilities to developable land in the eastern Blaine UGA within the planning period (2021-2036). Additional sewer upgrades under I-5 are identified in the 2022- 2027 CIP. The City of Blaine has identified WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT potential constraints to water availability and capacity. The City has contracted with a consultant to both identify existing capacity and propose recommendations to increase that capacity. As of the writing of this report, the City has determined that if needed, it will consider updates to the 2021 Comprehensive Water System Plan and Capital Facilities Plan to plan and budget for the increased capacity, and therefore the planned densities in the City's Comprehensive Plan will be realized. Analysis of Comprehensive Plan Objectives and Reasonable Measures The City of Blaine has determined that growth targets and assumptions for residential development are being met. Therefore, an analysis of comprehensive plan residential development targets, assumptions, and objectives is not deemed necessary during the reporting cycle. No inconsistencies between planned and actual residential growth have been identified in the Blaine UGA. Therefore, reasonable measures are not required under RCW 36. 70A.215. The City of Blaine has identified that there are inconsistencies between planned and actual commercial, industrial, and manufacturing growth in the Blaine UGA. PAGE 64 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Potential reasonable measures may include the following: • Updates to the Binding Site Plans requirements. Blaine should consider adopting updates that require the installation of public and private infrastructure as a condition of final binding site plan approval. Binding site plan expiration dates should be modified to align with the timelines for plats. • Updates the allowed uses in the Manufacturing zoning districts. Blaine should consider adopting updates that would expand allowed uses in the manufacturing zone, subject to appropriate performance standards. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 65 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Residential Development Exhibit 26. Residential Development, Achieved and Assumed Densities, City of Blaine, 2016-2021 Development Acres Dwelling Achieved Density Zoning Designation Type Developed Units Density Assumed (Units/Acre} (Units/Acre} PR Single Family 3.3 17 5.09 4.00 Multifamily N/ ,\/A 4.00 RL Single Family 9.6 54 5.62 6.00 SF-l Single Family l.O 4 4.09 6.00 SF-2 Single Family 2.3 14 6.19 6.00 PC Single Family 0.2 5.42 N/A RH Single Family \/A N/.A_ 20.00 Multifamily 0.5 2 3.72 24.00 RM Single Family 2.4 14 5.82 6.00 Multifamily 2.6 28 10.61 12.00 R/O Single Family i'~/ A, ;v,i 6.00 Multifamily N/A. \i : 24.00 RPR Single Family 21.0 72 3.42 3.00 CB G-36 Multifamily N/ /\ N //, ! .; r\ 20.00 CB G-48 Multifamily I' ,'\ 20.00 CB-M Multifamily r0./A 20.00 CB M-48 Multifamily NIA N//:.... 20.00 CB M-60 Multifamily N/A ,'-1/A 20.00 CB-T Multifamily ~✓/ A N/i\ 20.00 CB TP-60 Multifamily A. N/A 20.00 CB WV-36 Multifamily N/A ['\j//\ 20.00 HCA Multifamily !~/A N/A 20.00 HCb Multifamily t\/ 1-\ N/A N/A HCc Multifamily N/ A. N/A 20.00 HCd Multifamily r✓/ A N/A 20.00 Mpr Single Family 6.4 36 5.60 5.00 Multifamily 3.3 18 5.40 12.00 Sources: City of Blaine, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: "Density Assumed" is the assumed density for evaluation of land suitable for development by zone. NOTE Assumed densities differ from achieved density WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 66 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 27. Residential Land Supply, Blaine UGA, 2021-2036 UGA Total CB-M CB-T HCA Ma Mb Mpr PC PR RL RM R/O RPR SF-1 Vocont Lond Gross Acres 818.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.74 368.53 109.17 38.43 54.74 216.18 5.18 Critical Areas 229.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.65 48.30 47.05 20.83 49.74 49.74 0.52 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 29.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 16.01 3.11 0.88 0.25 8.32 0.23 Infrastructure Deduction 29.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 16.01 3.11 0.88 0.25 8.32 0.23 Market Factor 79.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 43.23 8.39 2.38 0.68 22.47 0.63 Net Acres 450.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.60 244.98 47.52 13.47 3.83 127.33 3.56 Partially-Used Land Gross Acres 428.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.80 181.35 213.60 9.27 1.40 9.68 0.48 Critical Areas 86.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.58 14.41 68.67 2.33 0.00 0.03 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 8.35 7.25 0.35 0.07 0.48 0.02 Infrastructure Deduction 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 8.35 7.25 0.35 0.07 0.48 0.02 Market Factor 76.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.72 37.56 32.61 1.56 0.32 2.17 0.11 Net Acres 230.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.17 112.68 97.83 4.69 0.95 6.51 0.33 Underutilized Land Gross Acres 5.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 2.55 0.00 0.00 Critical Areas 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.13 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.13 0.00 0.00 Market Factor 1.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.57 0.00 0.00 Net Acres 3.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.27 1.72 0.00 0.00 Sources: City of Blaine, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT SF-2 3.77 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.17 0.47 2.65 5.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.26 1.16 3.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CB TP-CB M-CB M-CB G-CB WV-HCc HCd RH 60 2.21 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.21 1.17 0.45 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.14 60 48 36 36 0.31 0.97 2.13 6.00 1.43 0.63 0.52 0.27 0.23 0.10 5.26 0.00 0.00 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.10 0.04 0.07 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.10 0.04 0.07 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.27 0.10 0.19 0.08 0.00 0.03 0.57 1.55 0.56 1.09 0.48 0.00 0.00 0.71 0.48 0.36 1.01 0.09 0.34 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.15 0.11 0.08 0.23 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.46 0.32 0.23 0.68 0.06 0.07 0.16 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.68 0.56 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.42 0.38 0.00 PAGE 67 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 CBG- 48 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.11 0.33 0.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.13 0.40 Exhibit 28. Developable Residential Land Capacity, Blaine UGA, 2021-2036 UGA CB-M CB-T HCA Ma Mb Mpr PC PR RL RM R/O RPR Net Developable Residential Acres (Vacant, PU, UU) 684.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.77 357.66 145.36 18.42 6.49 133.84 Single Family Developable Acres 546.67 282.37 145.36 -3.25 105.66 Assumed Single Family Density (units/acre) 5 4 6 6 6 3 Subtotal Single Family Unit Capacity 2,397 1,129 872 19 317 Existing Single Family Units 232 28 2 11 58 74 11 5 Pending Single Family Units Master Planned Single Family Units 1,552 1,177 375 Subtotal: Net Single Family Unit Capacity 3,794 2,248 798 14 692 Potential Occupied Single Family Units 3,331 1,974 701 12 608 Single Family Population Capacity 8,258 4,893 1,737 30 1,506 Multifamily Developable Acres 138.30 3.77 75.30 18.42 3.25 28.18 Assumed Multifamily Density (units/acre) 20 20 20 12 18 4 12 24 12 Subtotal Multifamily Unit Capacity 1,194 68 301 221 78 338 Existing Multifamily Units 27 3 2 8 Pending Multifamily Units Master Planned Multifamily Units 583 220 212 151 Subtotal: Net Multifamily Unit Capacity 1,756 220 68 510 221 70 489 Potential Occupied Multifamily Units 1,526 191 59 443 192 61 425 Multifamily Population Capacity 3,066 384 119 890 386 122 854 Net Dwelling Unit Capacity 5,550 220 68 2,758 798 221 84 1,181 Potential Occupied Dwelling Units 4,857 191 59 2,417 701 192 73 1,033 Population Capacity 11,324 384 119 5,783 1,737 386 152 2,360 Remaining Population Growth to Accommodate (2021-2036) 3,287 Population Capacity Surplus (Deficit) 8,037 Sources: City of Blaine, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT SF-1 3.89 3.89 6 23 5 18 16 39 18 16 39 SF-2 CB TP-CB M-CB M-CB G-CB WV-HCc HCd 60 60 48 36 36 6.15 1.41 0.04 1.31 1.87 0.80 2.19 0.92 6.15 6 37 13 3 8 3 24 21 52 1.41 0.04 1.31 1.87 0.80 2.19 0.92 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 28 26 37 16 44 18 4 2 8 28 24 29 16 44 18 24 21 25 14 38 16 49 2 42 51 28 77 31 24 28 24 29 16 44 18 21 24 1 21 25 14 38 16 52 49 2 42 51 28 77 31 PAGE 68 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 RH CBG- 48 0.07 0.79 0.00 20 2 4 O.Q7 0.79 24 20 2 16 2 16 2 14 3 28 2 16 2 14 3 28 Commercial and Industrial Development Exhibit 29. Nonresidential Development, Achieved and Assumed Densities, City of Blaine, 2016-2021 Zoning Development Acres Built Square Achieved Assumed Designation Ty~e Develo~ed Feet Densi!Y (FAR} Densi!Y (FAR} PR Commercial N/ /\ N!/A 0.60 PC Commercial ;; /\ 0.80 R/O Commercial N/A 0.70 RPR Commercial 0.5 6,955 0.31 0.70 CB G-36 Commercial N/A N/A 0.85 CB G-48 Commercial N//\ 0.85 CB-M Commercial 0.9 19,644 0.51 1.00 CB M-48 Commercial N,/A 1'\i/ p\ 1.00 CB M-60 Commercial ~/ p\ 1.00 CB-T Commercial N/A 1.00 CB TP-60 Commercial /\ N(/\ 1.00 CB WV-36 Commercial 1.00 CB-W Commercial 3.7 62,296 0.39 1.00 Industrial /\ N/ /\ 1.00 GW Commercial N/l\ f</ ?, 0.90 Industrial 2.3 22,873 0.23 0.90 HCA. Commercial 1.5 27,685 0.41 0.85 HCb Commercial i\/A N/A 0.85 HCc Commercial Nii\ ~✓/A 0.85 HCd Commercial i~/;\ L ·' 0.85 M Industrial N/P 0.75 Ma Commercial N/A /\ 0.75 Industrial N/ 0.75 Mb Commercial N/A 0.75 Industrial N/A ;, 0.75 ;, Mc Commercial N/ f\ 0.75 Industrial 2.9 43,600 0.35 0.75 Mpr Commercial N/i\ N//-\ 0.70 Sources: City of Blaine, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: Assumed Density is the assumed density for evaluation of land suitable for development by zone. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 69 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 30. Developable Nonresidential Land Supply, Blaine UGA, 2021-2036 UGATotal GW HCA Ma Mb Mc Mpr PC PR RL R/O Vacant Land Gross Acres 262.01 9.05 41.03 15.07 122.02 9.23 0.00 2.58 19.40 0.00 13.69 Critical Areas 105.40 0.00 24.34 l.83 55.65 0.73 0.00 l.88 2.54 0.00 12.44 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 7.83 0.45 0.83 0.66 3.32 0.43 0.00 0.03 0.84 0.00 0.06 Infrastructure Deduction 7.83 0.45 0.83 0.66 3.32 0.43 0.00 0.03 0.84 0.00 0.06 Market Factor 21.14 l.22 2.25 1.79 8.96 l.15 0.00 0.09 2.28 0.00 0.17 Net Acres 119.80 6.93 12.76 10.13 50.77 6.50 0.00 0.53 12.89 0.00 0.96 Partially-Used Land Gross Acres 43.68 15.80 2.93 0.00 4.87 2.76 0.00 1.27 9.54 0.00 0.35 Critical Areas 10.97 4.58 1.59 0.00 0.71 0.15 0.00 0.19 0.76 0.00 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 I nfrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction l.64 0.56 0.07 0.00 0.21 0.13 0.00 0.05 0.44 0.00 0.02 Infrastructure Deduction l.64 0.56 0,07 0.00 0.21 0.13 0.00 0.05 0.44 0.00 0,02 Market Factor 7.36 2.52 0.30 0.00 0.94 0.59 0.00 0.24 l.98 0.00 0.08 Net Acres 22.08 7.57 0.90 0.00 2.81 1.76 0.00 0.72 5.93 0.00 0.24 Underutilized Land Gross Acres 64.54 0.30 6.19 13.03 42.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64 Critical Areas 29.17 0.00 2.10 4.45 22.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 I nfrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 1.77 0.01 0.20 0.43 0.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 Infrastructure Deduction 1.77 0.01 0.20 0.43 0.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 Market Factor 7.96 0.07 0.92 l.93 4.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 Net Acres 23.87 0.20 2.76 5.79 13.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43 Sources: City of Blaine, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT RPR 11.38 2.62 0.00 0.00 0.44 0.44 l.18 6.70 0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.11 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CB TP-CB M-CB M-CB G-CB WV-HCb HCc HCd 60 0.25 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0,02 0.13 0.05 0,03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0,02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 60 48 36 36 0.08 0.32 0.53 3.01 2.59 1.43 0.63 0.07 0.08 0.03 2.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.13 0,07 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.13 0,07 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.07 0.05 0.35 0.19 0.08 0.01 0.19 0.39 0.28 1.98 1.09 0.48 0.00 0.24 0.12 0.18 1.63 l.01 0.09 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.05 0,03 0.04 0.21 0.23 0.02 0.00 0.15 0.08 0.12 0.62 0.68 0.06 0.04 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.72 0.68 0.56 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.03 0,03 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.14 0.13 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.42 0.38 PAGE 70 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 CBG- 48 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0,03 0.08 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.10 Exhibit 31. Developable Nonresidential Land Capacity, Blaine UGA, 2021-2036 UGA GW HCA Ma Mb Mc Mpr PC PR RL R/O RPR Net Developable Employment Acres (Vacant, PU, UU) 165.76 14.70 16.42 15.92 66.78 8.27 0.00 1.26 18.82 0.00 1.62 7.04 Commercial Developable Acres 71.97 14.70 16.42 1.26 18.82 1.62 7.04 Assumed Commerciol Density (FAR) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 Subtotal: Commercial Capacity (SF) 2.466.577 57 6.235 608.115 -43,790 491,993 49,505 214,792 Existing Commercial Space (SF) 143,180 45,286 13,682 -17,773 160 11,177 Pending Commercial Space (SF) Master Planned Commercial Space (SF) 225,000 37,000 -71,000 -72,000 -45,000 Subtotal: Net Commercial Capacity (SF) 2,558,953 567,949 594,433 -71,000 26,017 563,993 38,328 259,792 Potential Occupied Commercial Space (SF) 2.431,006 539,552 564,711 -67,450 24,716 535,793 36,412 246,802 Commercial Employment Capacity 4,578 1,016 1,063 127 47 1,009 69 465 Industrial Developable Acres 93.79 -15.92 66.78 8.27 Assumed Industrial Density (FAR) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 Subtotal: Industrial Capacity (SF) 3,094,830 -520,064 2,181.559 270,122 Existing Industrial Space (SF) 19,761 1,044 200 4,864 Pending Industrial Space (SF) Master Planned Industrial Space (SF) 10,208 10,208 Subtotal: Net Industrial Capacity (SF) 3,104,838 10,208 -520,064 2,181,559 269,922 Potential Occupied Industrial Space (SF) 2,949,596 9,698 -494,061 2,072,481 256,426 Industrial Employment Capacity 3,992 13 669 2,804 347 Net Commercial & Industrial Capacity (SF) 5,663,791 578,157 594,433 520,064 2,181.559 269,922 71,000 26,017 563,993 38,328 259,792 Potential Occupied Commercial & Industrial 5,380,602 549,249 564,711 494,061 2,072,481 256,426 67,450 24,716 535,793 36,412 246,802 Employment Capacity 8,570 1,029 1,063 669 2,804 347 127 47 1,009 69 465 Remaining Employment Growth to Accommodate (2021-2036) 1,578 Employment Capacity Surplus (Deficit) 6,992 Sources: City of Blaine, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT CB TP-CB M-CB M-CB G-CB WV-HCb HCc HCd 60 60 48 36 36 0.16 0.01 0.44 0.47 0.40 3.08 2.19 0.92 0.16 0.01 0.44 0.47 0.40 3.08 2.19 0.92 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 6,825 413 19,010 17,314 17,396 114,111 81,215 33,946 1,223 2.472 18,393 1,494 2,182 5,640 3,848 2,352 5,602 617 15,820 15,214 108,471 77,367 31,594 5,322 586 15,029 14,453 103,047 73,499 30,014 10 28 27 194 138 57 2.000 6,253 5,602 617 15,820 15,214 108,471 77,367 31,594 5,322 586 15,029 14,453 103,047 73,499 30,014 10 28 27 194 138 57 PAGE 71 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 CBG- 48 0.20 0.20 0.9 7,290 5,945 1.345 1,278 2 1,345 1,278 2 4. Cherry Point UGA The Cherry Point Urban Growth Area is characterized by and planned for industrial uses. This UGA does not have residential zoning or allocated population growth. The UGA has an employment growth allocation of 774 between 2016 and 2036 (Exhibit 2). Achieved Growth 2016-2021 Permit data for the Cherry Point UGA is not a sufficient data source to estimate past employment growth. This is because a major employer in the UGA shutdown in 2020. Additionally, the Cherry Point Urban Growth Area is unique in that many of the building permits are not for the more traditional enclosed industrial buildings that have been permitted in other cities and UGAs (building permits at Cherry Point include equipment, pipe supports, platforms, etc.). Therefore, Whatcom County contracted with Western Washington University to provide an employment growth estimate for the review period (Employment at Cherry Point, June 2021). Employment data for 2016 was limited. Therefore, the employment estimate represents growth between 2017 and 2021. Based on these estimates, the Cherry Point UGA declined in employment by 141 (Exhibit 7). Cherry Point UGA employment declined between 2016 and 2021 because of job losses WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT associated with the Alcoa Intalco shutdown in 2020. Employment Assumptions Occupancy rate and employment density assumptions for estimating future growth capacity in the Cherry Point UGA are: • 95.0% Industrial occupancy rate • 1,779 Industrial square feet per employee The Cherry Point UGA will need to accommodate 876 more jobs between 2021 and 2036 under current planning assumptions (Exhibit 7). Employment Capacity 2021-2036 The Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan does not have adopted industrial planned densities. Between 2016 and 2021 the Cherry Point UGA has seen an overall achieved industrial FAR of 0.11 (Exhibit 11). Based on achieved densities between 2016 and 2021, Whatcom County is assuming future F ARs of 0.10 for the HII zone and 0.12 for the LII zone (Exhibit 32). PAGE 72 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 The Cherry Point UGA has estimated net land capacity for employment growth of 1,152 acres (Exhibit 33), with a total estimated potential occupied industrial capacity of over 4.6 million square feet. Based on square feet per employee assumptions, the Cherry Point UGA has an estimated future employment capacity of 2,613, indicating an estimated employment capacity surplus of 1,737 (Exhibit 34). Regulatory Changes The County has evaluated development regulations adopted in the review period (April 1, 2016 -March 31, 2021). Only Ordinance 2019-005 could prevent assigned densities from being achieved or impact the quantity of land suitable for development in the remainder of the 20-year planning period (2021-2036). In an e-mail of October 6, 2021, a representative of the Whatcom County Public Works River & Flood Division stated: ... the 2019 revisions were done mainly to reflect updated flood study and the most recent just adopted in 2021 was for compliance with building freeboard required for CRS [Community Rating System] credit, nothing to do with 'supply of land'. That being said, the flood study did change the Base Flood Elevations and floodplain boundaries in those areas and WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT the FEMA Biological Opinion does restrict density in the floodplain ... A September 30, 2021 River & Flood Division memo attached to the e-mail states that the Special Flood Hazard Area is: ... designated Critical Area and/or Habitat Conservation Area (HCA) per WCC Title- 16. As such, creating additional 'buildable' lots within a Critical Area or HCA may be prohibited. For further information reference WCC 16.16.420 -Frequently Flooded Areas ... Pursuant to the Whatcom County Review and Evaluation Program Methodology, Whatcom County deducted floodplains from the buildable land supply. After the end of the review period, the County Council adopted Ordinance 2021-046 prohibiting certain uses and requiring a conditional use permit for certain uses in the Cherry Point UGA. This ordinance also included greenhouse gas provisions in SEP A. Infrastructure Gaps Whatcom County has reviewed capital facility plans and/or consulted with service providers. Based upon these actions, the County has not identified any infrastructure gaps that would PAGE 73 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 prevent service providers from supplying planned capital facilities to developable land in the Cherry Point UGA within the remaining portion of the planning period (2021-2036). Analysis of Comprehensive Plan Objectives and Reasonable Measures The Cherry Point UGA experienced negative job growth in the review period because of the Alcoa Intalco shutdown, which resulted in the loss of approximately 662 jobs at this plant (Employment at Cherry Point, June 2021, page 8). The shutdown was a business decision by a large corporation based upon a number of factors, including the global business environment. If not for this shutdown, employment growth in the UGA would have outpaced the growth allocated in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan. Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan Policy 7B-l states: The Port of Bellingham, serving as the ADO [Associate Development Organization], will work with the cities, the County, Chambers of Commerce, educational institutions, and other groups to assist retention and expansion of existing local businesses and to attract appropriate businesses to Whatcom County ... WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT The Port of Bellingham is actively working to recruit a business for the Alcoa Intalco property. A reasonable measure is for the Port of Bellingham to continue the recruitment process until a new tenant is found, in order to facilitate job growth as envisioned in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan and implement Comprehensive Plan Policy 7B-1. PAGE 74 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Commercial and Industrial Development Exhibit 32. Nonresidential Development, Achieved and Assumed Densities, Cherry Point UGA, 2016-2021 Zoning Development Acres Built Square Achieved Assumed Designation Type Developed Feet Density (FAR) Density (FAR) HI I Industrial 8.8 39,560 0.10 0.10 LI I Industrial 8.0 40,991 0.12 0.12 Sources: Whatcom County, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: Assumed Density is the assumed density for evaluation of land suitable for development by zone. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 75 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 33. Developable Nonresidential Land Supply, Cherry Point UGA, 2021-2036 Vacant Land Gross Acres Critical Areas Future Public Uses Infrastructure Gaps Quasi-Public Use Deduction Infrastructure Deduction Mark et Factor Net Acres Partially-Used Land Gross Acres Critical Areas Future Public Uses Infrastructure Gaps Quasi-Public Use Deduction Infrastructure Deduction Mark et Factor Net Acres Underutilized Land Gross Acres Critical Areas Future Public Uses Infrastructure Gaps Quasi-Public Use Deduction Infrastructure Deduction Market Factor Net Acres Sources: Whatcom County, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT UGA Total 3,834.69 2,188.05 10.00 0.00 81.83 163.66 313.0l 1,078.14 148.42 109.30 0.00 0.00 l.96 3.91 10.81 22.45 223.24 133.21 0.00 0.00 4.50 9.00 24.87 51.65 HII 3,765.09 2,132.12 10.00 0.00 81.15 162.30 310.39 1,069.13 148.42 109.30 0.00 0.00 l.96 3.91 10.81 22.45 218.47 130.42 0.00 0.00 4.40 8.80 24.32 50.52 LIi 69.60 55.93 0.00 0.00 0.68 l.37 2.62 9.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.77 2.79 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.55 1.14 PAGE 76 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 34. Developable Nonresidential Land Capacity, Cherry Point UGA, 2021-2036 Net Developable Employment Acres (Vacant, PU, UU) Commercial Developable Acres Assumed Commercial Density (FAR) Subtotal: Commercial Capacity (SF) Existing Commercial Space (SF) Pending Commercial Space (SF) Master Planned Commercial Space (SF) Subtotal: Net Commercial Capacity (SF) Potential Occupied Commercial Space (SF) Commercial Employment Capacity Industrial Developable Acres Assumed Industrial Density (FAR) Subtotal: Industrial Capacity (SF) Existing Industrial Space (SF) Pending Industrial Space (SF) Master Planned Industrial Space (SF) Subtotal: Net Industrial Capacity (SF) Potential Occupied Industrial Space (SF) Industrial Employment Capacity Net Commercial & Industrial Capacity (SF) Potential Occupied Commercial & Industrial Employment Capacity Remaining Employment Growth to Accommodate (2021-2036) Employment Capacity Surplus (Deficit) Sources: Whatcom County, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT UGA 1,152.24 11,328 1152.24 5,027,995 134,000 4,893,995 4,649,295 2,613 4,893,995 4,649,295 2,613 876 1,737 HII 1,142.09 11,328 1142.09 0.1 4,974,958 134,000 4,840,958 4,598,910 2,585 4,840,958 4,598,910 2,585 LIi 10.15 10.15 0.1 53,037 53,037 50,385 28 53,037 50,385 28 PAGE 77 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 5. Columbia Valley UGA The Columbia Valley Urban Growth Area, one of three Non-City UGAs, is projected to reach 4,448 total population and 444 employees by 2036. The UGA has projected growth allocations of 1,170 new residents and 312 new jobs between 2016 and 2036 (Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2). Achieved Growth 2016-2021 Based on permit data collected between 2016 and 2021, occupancy, persons per household and square feet per employee assumptions, new construction in the Columbia Valley UGA accommodated an estimated 271 new residents and 11 new jobs over this five-year period (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). The Columbia Valley UGA achieved an overall residential density of 4.9 units per net acre between 2016 and 2021. This is within the range of 4.0 to 6.0 units per net acre planned in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Exhibit 11). Whatcom County has not adopted planned densities for commercial or industrial uses. Between 2016 and 2021, the UGA achieved a commercial FAR of 0.05, and did not have industrial development during the period (Exhibit 11). The commercial FAR is based WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT upon a limited number of commercial building permits (2) issued between April 1, 2016 and March 31, 2021. One of the 2 building permits was in a commercial zone (the other was in a residential zone). The permit in commercial zone was for a new food bank. Population and Employment Assumptions Occupancy rate and population and employment assumptions for estimating future growth capacity in the Columbia Valley UGA are: • 88.0% residential occupancy rate • 95.0% Commercial and Industrial occupancy rate • 2.90 persons per household • 532 and 812 respectively Commercial and Industrial square feet per employee Population Capacity 2021-2036 The Columbia Valley UGA will need to accommodate 899 more residents and 301 more jobs between 2021 and 2036 under current planning assumptions (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). Based on achieved densities between 2016 and 2021, Whatcom County is assuming future residential densities of 4.9 units per acre for PAGE 78 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 both single family and multifamily development (Exhibit 35). The Columbia Valley UGA has estimated net land capacity for population growth of 178.4 acres (Exhibit 36), with a total estimated potential occupied unit capacity of 7 4 7 dwelling units. Based on persons per household assumptions, the Columbia Valley UGA has an estimated population capacity of 2,167, indicating an estimated population capacity surplus of 1,268 (Exhibit 37). Housing Needs by Type The Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 3-Housing, Chart 3 -Estimated Dwelling Units Needed, page 3-8) indicates that the Columbia Valley UGA has a need for 613 new single-family dwelling units during the 2013-2036 planning period (the Comprehensive Plan does not estimate multifamily housing needs for Columbia Valley). The calculation for Chart 3 in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan included building activity from 2013. Therefore, the analysis below includes permit data from April 1, 2013, even though the planning period for this Buildable Lands Report is from 2016. • Between April 1, 2013 and March 31, 2021, Whatcom County performed final inspections on 120 single-family and 0 WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT multi-family units in the Columbia UGA. Comparing units built and the needs indicated on Chart 3, the Columbia Valley UGA needs an additional 493 single-family units between 2021 and 2036. • The Columbia Valley UGA has an estimated 2021-2036 capacity for 840 single-family and 9 multi-family housing units (Exhibit 37). The capacity to accommodate single family residential housing in the Columbia Valley UGA is sufficient to accommodate the single family dwelling units needed in the planning period as established in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 3-Housing, Chart 3). Employment Capacity 2021-2036 Whatcom County is using an average of the small city F ARs for future commercial and industrial development, since there is little or no data on achieved densities in the Columbia Valley UGA (Exhibit 38). The Columbia Valley UGA has estimated net land capacity for employment growth of 33.1 acres (Exhibit 39), with a total estimated potential occupied commercial and industrial capacity of 278,205 square feet. Based on square feet per employee assumptions, the PAGE 79 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 UGA has an estimated employment capacity of 420, indicating an estimated employment capacity surplus of 119 (Exhibit 40). Regulatory Changes The County has evaluated development regulations adopted in the review period (April 1, 2016 -March 31, 2021). No ordinances adopted during the review period have been identified that would prevent assigned densities from being achieved or impact the quantity ofland suitable for development in the remainder of the 20-year planning period (2021-2036). Infrastructure Gaps Whatcom County has reviewed capital facility plans and/or consulted with service providers. Based upon these actions, the County has the following comments on infrastructure gaps that would prevent service providers from supplying planned capital facilities to developable land in the Columbia Valley UGA within the planning period (2021-2036). Water District 13 is the only sewer purveyor in the UGA. There is no public sewer in parts of the UGA outside of District 13, including the Planned Industrial area north of Limestone Rd. On-site sewage systems may be used in areas with no sewer, which will WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT especially affect the Planned Light Impact Industrial Area. A 30% deduction will be taken from the land in the Planned Light Impact Industrial Area to account for the lack of public sewer. A map of the Columbia Valley UGA showing the land area associated with this deduction is provide below. Residential areas located outside District 13 are platted already and have developed with on-site sewage systems. Additionally, the Water District 13 Sewer Plan will need to be updated to serve planned growth within its boundaries, as the existing Sewer System Plan only plans for projected population and sewer connections through the year 2029. PAGE 80 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT Columbia Valley UGA -Infrastructure Gaps Legend Columbia Valley UGA ;/st Ill W>t~l~tlR tOU\"ff$ ~!S~-'lA il"J>'.l($lK1. .n11l"S ~,11; ;1(HH 11:ffll 'k• fOU..Ol'tl~\; STJl;u•r~t \l/"t,,ta-,.,e.,.,qe,ti=•""Zl!'!'."'~lll••J"""'dl"•J.d;IJ<ly'leu~ ~[ 'f!>t<u ~ (:0~ ,.._.P •~· ,...,~1"'4·,a'J'l'O• . .row. UJ!!l;'lll,.,. , ..... um .'\(:'tl)'f;~OIUIQ:'ll)'-l1«a61'tcr,ctf!tl~IW!JC~• 4r,. ~mt«?. O.:f:IP!olr-•m ~f «~!'! ~, a.a ucw.,~ o:, Jb-.: "'». ,AAf'.rc.,...:,;,11qnu,,;,,,~:,,impr-:,~.fh>t•U?>r.Kl.-~"..'::v.:•t~~:1::!=.c::1.!:!':~;;; .. -:: •~!Ofl ""' ,\'iarch2022 -==-=i---===--•·<:::<:t J ,ioo aoo 1.soo ;; -:00 '.)_::>oo PAGE 81 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Analysis of Comprehensive Plan Objectives and Reasonable Measures The Columbia Valley UGA has experienced slow employment growth between 2016 and 2021. The Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan employment projection would suggest that about 78 jobs should be created in the Columbia Valley UGA over a given five-year period (Chapter 1, page 1-8). However, the Data Reporting Tool estimates that only 11 jobs were created in the UGA between 2016 and 2021. The County rezoned land in the UGA from Urban Residential to General Commercial in 2009 to provide land for business within the UGA. There is also a Planned Light Impact Industrial designation in the northern portion of the UGA, but this site has not yet been rezoned to accommodate industry. Therefore, it is not able to accommodate intensive employment growth at this time. A potential reasonable measure the County could consider is rezoning the Planned Light Impact Industrial area for industrial uses as set forth in the Foothills Subarea Plan (pages 2-12, 12- 4, 12-5, and 12-10). WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 82 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Residential Development Exhibit 35. Residential Development, Achieved and Assumed Densities, Columbia Valley UGA, 2016-2021 Zoning Development Acres Dwelling Achieved Density Designation Type Developed Units Density Assumed (Units/Acre) (Units/Acre) UR4 Single Family 22.2 109 4.91 4.91 GC Multifamily N/A N/A N/A 4.91 Sources: Whatcom County, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: "Density Assumed" is the assumed density for evaluation of land suitable for development by zone. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 83 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 36. Residential Land Supply, Columbia Valley UGA, 2021-2036 Vacant Land Gross Acres Critical Areas Future Public Uses Infrastructure Gaps Quasi-Public Use Deduction Infrastructure Deduction Market Factor Net Acres Partially-Used Land Gross Acres Critical Areas Future Public Uses Infrastructure Gaps Quasi-Public Use Deduction Infrastructure Deduction Market Factor Net Acres Underutilized Land Gross Acres Critical Areas Future Public Uses Infrastructure Gaps Quasi-Public Use Deduction Infrastructure Deduction Market Factor Net Acres Sources: Whatcom County, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT UGA Total 408.37 101.05 3.00 0.00 15.22 69.70 52.66 166.74 29.17 6.53 0.00 0.00 1.13 5.21 4.89 11.41 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.13 0.29 UR4 406.02 100.94 3.00 0.00 15.10 69.48 52.20 165.29 29.17 6.53 0.00 0.00 1.13 5.21 4.89 11.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GC RF 2.35 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.46 0.00 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.29 0.00 PAGE 84 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 37. Developable Residential Land Capacity, Columbia Valley UGA, 2021-2036 Net Developable Residential Acres (Vacant, PU, UU) Single Family Developable Acres Assumed Single Family Density (units/acre) Subtotal Single Family Unit Capacity Existing Single Family Units Pending Single Family Units Master Planned Single Family Units Subtotal: Net Single Family Unit Capacity Potential Occupied Single Family Units Single Family Population Capacity Multifamily Developable Acres Assumed Multifamily Density (units/acre) Subtotal Multifamily Unit Capacity Existing Multifamily Units Pending Multifamily Units Master Planned Multifamily Units Subtotal: Net Multifamily Unit Capacity Potential Occupied Multifamily Units Multifamily Population Capacity Net Dwelling Unit Capacity Potential Occupied Dwelling Units Population Capacity Remaining Population Growth to Accommodate (2021-2036) Population Capacity Surplus (Deficit) Sources: Whatcom County, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT UGA 178.45 176.71 868 87 58 840 739 2,144 1.74 9 9 8 23 849 747 2,167 899 1,268 UR4 176.71 176.71 5 868 86 58 840 739 2,144 840 739 2,144 GC RF 1.74 0.00 1.74 5 9 9 8 23 9 8 23 PAGE 85 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Commercial and Industrial Development Exhibit 38. Nonresidential Development, Achieved and Assumed Densities, Columbia Valley UGA, 2016- 2021 Zoning Development Acres Built Square Achieved Assumed Designation Tyee Develoeed Feet Density (FAR) Density (FAR) UR4 Commercial 0.1 864 0.27 N/A GC Commercial 2.6 5,500 0.05 0.18 RF · Industrial N/A N/A N/A 0.22 Sources: Whatcom County, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: Assumed Density is the assumed density for evaluation of land suitable for development by zone. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 86 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 39. Developable Nonresidential Land Supply, Columbia Valley UGA, 2021-2036 UGA Total Vacant Land Gross Acres 59.74 Critical Areas 0.97 Future Public Uses 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 11.57 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 2.36 Infrastructure Deduction 4.72 Market Factor 9.63 Net Acres 30.49 Partially-Used Land Gross Acres 0.00 Critical Areas 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 0.00 Mark et Factor 0.00 Net Acres 0.00 Underutilized Land Gross Acres 4.43 Critical Areas 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 0.22 Infrastructure Deduction 0.44 Market Factor 1.13 Net Acres 2.64 Sources: Whatcom County, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT UR4 GC 0.00 21.16 0.00 0.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.01 0.00 2.02 0.00 4.12 0.00 13.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.44 0.00 1.13 0.00 2.64 RF 38.58 0.00 0.00 11.57 1.35 2.70 5.51 17.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 PAGE 87 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 40. Developable Nonresidential Land Capacity, Columbia Valley UGA, 2021-2036 Net Developable Employment Acres (Vacant, PU, UU) Commercial Developable Acres Assumed Commercial Density (FAR) Subtotal: Commercial Capacity (SF) Existing Commercial Space (SF) Pending Commercial Space (SF) Master Planned Commercial Space (SF) Subtotal: Net Commercial Capacity (SF) Potential Occupied Commercial Space (SF) UGA 33.12 15.68 125,658 125,658 119,375 UR4 0.00 GC 15.68 15.68 0.2 125,658 125,658 119,375 RF 17.45 -----------------Commer c i a I Employment Capacity Industrial Developable Acres Assumed Industrial Density (FAR) Subtotal: Industrial Capacity (SF) Existing Industrial Space (SF) Pending Industrial Space (SF) Master Planned Industrial Space (SF) Subtotal: Net Industrial Capacity (SF) Potential Occupied Industrial Space (SF) Industrial Employment Capacity Net Commercial & Industrial Capacity (SF) Potential Occupied Commercial & Industrial Em p Io y men t Capacity Remaining Employment Growth to Accommodate (2021-2036) Employment Capacity Surplus (Deficit) Sources: Whatcom County, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT 224 17.45 167,189 167,189 158,830 196 292,847 278,205 ---------420 301 119 224 17.45 0.2 167,189 167,189 158,830 196 125,658 167,189 119,375 158,830 224 196 PAGE 88 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 6. Everson UGA The Everson Urban Growth Area is projected to reach a total population and employment of 3,907 and 1,312 respectively by 2036. The UGA has projected growth allocation of 1,080 for population and 523 for employment between 2016 and 2036 (Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2). Achieved Growth 2016-2021 Based on permit data collected between 2016 and 2021 and occupancy and persons per household and square feet per employee assumptions, the Everson UGA grew by an estimated 317 population (100% within the City of Everson) and 16 employment (79% within the City of Everson) (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). Between 2016 and 2021, the City of Everson achieved densities greater than planned for residential uses, 4.8 units per acre achieved compared to 4.0 planned based in the Whatcom County Land Capacity Analysis Report referenced in the 2016 City of Everson Comprehensive Plan. This achieved residential density also falls within the planned density range of 4.0 to 6.0 units per acre adopted in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan for the City of Everson. The unincorporated portions of the Everson UGA have seen no WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT residential or commercial development between 2016 and 2021 (Exhibit 11). The City of Everson, in the Comprehensive Plan, references commercial and industrial planned densities based on the Whatcom County Land Capacity Analysis. Whatcom County has not adopted planned densities for commercial or industrial uses. Planned commercial and industrial FAR for the Everson UGA are 0.20 and 0.30, respectively. Between 2016 and 2021, incorporated areas of the UGA have achieved a commercial FAR of 0.26, exceeding the adopted FAR. No industrial developed has occurred in the City of Everson between 2016 and 2021. Limited industrial development in the unincorporated portion of the UGA achieved a 0.01 FAR (Exhibit 11). Population and Employment Assumptions Specific occupancy rate and population and employment density assumptions for estimating future growth capacity in the Everson UGA are: • 97.0% Single Family occupancy rate • 92.8% Multifamily occupancy rate • 95.0% Commercial and Industrial occupancy rate PAGE 89 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 • 3.066 Single Family persons per household • 2.901 Multifamily persons per household • 800 and 1,501 respectively Commercial and Industrial square feet per employee The Everson UGA has an estimated 763 population and 507 employment growth remaining to accommodate between 2021 and 2036 (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). Population Capacity 2021-2036 The City of Everson is utilizing achieved densities when estimating future residential land capacity. Based on achieved densities between 2016 and 2021 and planning assumptions, City of Everson planners are assuming future single family density of 4.4 units per acre, and 8.5 units per acre for multifamily zones (Exhibit 41). The Everson UGA has estimated net land capacity for population growth of 248.4 acres (Exhibit 42), with a total estimated potential occupied unit capacity of 1,203 dwelling units. Based on persons per household assumptions, the UGA has an estimated population capacity of 3,634, indicating an estimated population capacity surplus of 2,871 (Exhibit 43). WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT Housing Needs by Type The Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 3-Housing, Chart 3 -Estimated Dwelling Units Needed, page 3-8) indicates that Everson has a need for 277 single-family, 129 multi-family, and 28 other ("group housing") new dwelling units during the 2013- 2036 planning period. The calculation for Chart 3 in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan included building activity from 2013. Therefore, the analysis below includes permit data from April 1, 2013, even though the planning period for this Buildable Lands Report is from 2016. • Between April 1, 2013 and March 31 2021 ' ' Everson issued building permits for 11 7 single-family and 20 multi-family units. No group housing has been built during this time. Comparing units built and the needs indicated on Chart 3, Everson needs an additional 160 single-family units, 109 multi-family units, and 28 group housing units between 2021 and 2036. • The City and unincorporated UGA have an estimated 2021-2036 capacity for 904 single-family and 351 multi-family housing units (Exhibit 43). The multi-family capacity includes group housing. PAGE 90 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 These capacities are sufficient to accommodate the dwelling unit types needed in the planning period as established in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 3-Housing, Chart 3). Employment Capacity 2021-2036 The City of Everson is utilizing achieved densities (when available) when estimating future land capacity for employment. Based on achieved densities between 2016 and 2021 and planning assumptions, City of Everson planners are assuming a future commercial FAR of 0.26 and an industrial FAR of 0.30 (Exhibit 44). The Everson UGA has estimated net land capacity for employment growth of 179.4 acres (Exhibit 45), with a total estimated potential occupied commercial and industrial capacity of 2.1 million square feet. Based on square feet per employee assumptions, the Everson UGA has an estimated employment capacity of 1,575, indicating an estimated employment capacity surplus of 1,065 (Exhibit 46). Regulatory Changes The City of Everson has not identified any regulatory changes that would prevent assigned densities from being achieved or impact the quantity of land suitable for WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT development during the remainder of the planning period. Infrastructure Gaps The City of Everson has not identified any infrastructure gaps that would prevent assigned densities from being achieved or impact the quantity of land suitable for development during the remainder of the planning period (2021 to 2036). Analysis of Comprehensive Plan Objectives and Reasonable Measures The City of Everson has determined that growth targets and assumptions are being met to a reasonable degree; therefore, an analysis of comprehensive plan development targets, assumptions and objectives is not deemed necessary. Based on the results presented in the Buildable Land Report, implementation of reasonable measures is not deemed necessary. If in the future it is determined that Reasonable Measures are appropriate, then the following measures could be considered for implementation: • Increase residential densities by reducing minimum lot sizes in the Residential District above the increases likely to result from PAGE 91 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 establishment of the Residential-7500 Subzone. · Increase opportunities for construction of accessory dwelling units (ADUs). WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 92 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Residential Development Exhibit 41. Residential Development, Achieved and Assumed Densities, City of Everson, 2016-2021 z · D I t Acres D Ir Achieved Density omng eve opmen we. mg Density Assumed Designation Type Developed Units (Units/Acre) (Units/Acre) RES Single Family 20.3 89 4.38 4.38 Multifamily 0.3 2 7.14 N/A RES-7500 Single Family N/.A N/A N/A 4.38 RMU Single Family 0.4 3 7.33 N/A Multifamily 1.6 14 8.50 8.50 Sources: City of Everson, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: "Density Assumed" is the assumed density for evaluation of land suitable for development by zone. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 93 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 42. Residential Land Supply, Everson UGA, 2021-2036 UGA Total RES RES-7500 Vacant Land Gross Acres 201.31 161.60 0.64 Critical Areas 20.18 20.18 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 9.06 7.07 0.03 Infrastructure Deduction 9.06 7.07 0.03 Market Factor 24.45 19.09 0.09 Net Acres 138.57 108.19 0.49 Partially-Used Land Gross Acres 214.57 201.09 0.00 Critical Areas 51.84 50.37 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 8.14 7.54 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 8.14 7.54 0.00 Mark et Factor 36.61 33.91 0.00 Net Acres 109.84 101.74 0.00 Underutilized Land Gross Acres 0.00 0.00 0.00 Critical Areas 0.00 0.00 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 0.00 0.00 0.00 Market Factor 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net Acres 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sources: City of Everson, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT RMU COM LI 39.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.95 0.00 0.00 1.95 0.00 0.00 5.27 0.00 0.00 29.89 0.00 0.00 13.48 0.00 0.00 1.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 2.70 0.00 0.00 8.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 PAGE 94 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 43. Developable Residential Land Capacity, Everson UGA, 2021-2036 UGA RES RES-7500 Net Developable Residential Acres (Vacant, PU, UU) 248.41 209.93 0.49 Single Family Developable Acres 210.42 209.93 0.49 Assumed Single Family Density (units/acre) 4 4 Subtotal Single Family Unit Capacity 921 919 2 Existing Single Family Units 63 37 Pending Single Family Units 20 20 Master Planned Single Family Units Subtotal: Net Single Family Unit Capacity 904 902 2 Potential Occupied Single Family Units 877 875 2 Single Family Population Capacity 2,689 2,683 6 Multifamily Developable Acres 37.99 Assumed Multifamily Density (units/acre) Subtotal Multifamily Unit Capacity 323 Existing Multifamily Units Pending Multifamily Units 28 Master Planned Multifamily Units Subtotal: Net Multifamily Unit Capacity 351 Potential Occupied Multifamily Units 326 Multifamily Population Capacity 945 Net Dwelling Unit Capacity 1,255 902 2 Potential Occupied Dwelling Units 1,203 875 2 Population Capacity 3,634 2,683 6 Remaining Population Growth to Accommodate (2021-2036) 763 Population Capacity Surplus (Deficit) 2,871 Sources: City of Everson, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT RMU COM LI 37.99 0.00 0.00 5 16 5 37.99 9 323 28 351 326 945 351 326 945 PAGE 95 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Commercial and Industrial Development Exhibit 44. Nonresidential Development, Achieved and Assumed Densities, City of Everson, 2016-2021 Zoning Development Acres Built Square Achieved Assumed Designation Ty~e Develo~ed Feet Density (FAR} Density (FAR} COM Commercial 0.9 10,825 0.26 0.26 LI Industrial N/A N/A N/A 0.30 Sources: City of Everson, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: Assumed Density is the assumed density for evaluation of land suitable for development by zone. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 96 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 45. Developable Nonresidential Land Supply, Everson UGA, 2021-2036 UGA Total RES RES-7500 RMU COM LI Vacant Land Gross Acres 175.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.89 165.25 Critical Areas 2.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 2.33 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 8.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.48 8.15 Infrastructure Deduction 8.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.48 8.15 Market Factor 23.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.31 22.00 Net Acres 132.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.42 124.64 Partially-Used Land Gross Acres 6.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.52 2.68 Critical Areas 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.13 Infrastructure Deduction 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.13 Market Factor 1.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.60 Net Acres 4.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.38 1.81 Underutilized Land Gross Acres 79.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 26.46 52.55 Critical Areas 15.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.01 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 3.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.32 l.88 Infrastructure Deduction 3.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.32 l.88 Market Factor 14.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.95 8.45 Net Acres 43.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.86 25.34 Sources: City of Everson, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY PAGE 97 BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 46. Developable Nonresidential Land Capacity, Everson UGA, 2021-2036 Net Developable Employment Acres (Vacant, PU, UU) Commercial Developable Acres Assumed Commercial Density (FAR) Subtotal: Commercial Capacity (SF) Existing Commercial Space (SF) Pending Commercial Space (SF) Master Planned Commercial Space (SF) Subtotal: Net Commercial Capacity (SF) Potential Occupied Commercial Space (SF) Commer c i a I Employment Capacity Industrial Developable Acres Assumed Industrial Density (FAR) Subtotal: Industrial Capacity (SF) Existing Industrial Space (SF) Pending Industrial Space (SF) Master Planned Industrial Space (SF) Subtotal: Net Industrial Capacity (SF) Potential Occupied Industrial Space (SF) Industrial Employment Capacity Net Commercial & Industrial Capacity (SF) UGA RES RES-7500 RMU COM LI 179.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.66 151.79 27.66 27.66 0.3 313,283 313,283 4,592 4,592 308,691 308,691 293,256 293,256 ------------------------367 151.79 1,983,592 84,096 1,909,122 1,813,666 1,208 2,217,813 367 151.79 0.3 -1,983,592 9,626 74,470 -1,909,122 -1,813,666 1,208 308,691 1,909,122 Potential Occupied Commercial & Industrial 2,106,922 293,256 1,813,666 ------------------------Em p Io y men t Capacity 1,575 367 1,208 Remaining Employment Growth to Accommodate (2021-2036) Employment Capacity Surplus (Deficit) 510 1,065 Sources: City of Everson, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 98 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 7. Ferndale UGA The Ferndale Urban Growth Area is the second largest in the County and is projected to reach a total population and employment of 19,591 and 9,372 respectively by 2036. The UGA has projected growth allocation of 5,942 for population and 3,478 for employment between 2016 and 2036 (Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2). Achieved Growth 2016-2021 Based on permit data collected between 2016 and 2021 and occupancy and persons per household and square feet per employee assumptions, the Ferndale UGA grew by an estimated 2,089 population (99% within the City) and 1,001 employment (94% within the City) (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). The City of Ferndale has achieved residential densities of 6.1 units per net acre, a commercial FAR of 0.09, and an industrial FAR of 0.19 between 2016 and 2021. Achieved residential densities are greater than the planned densities for residential within the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan of between 6.0 and 10.0 units per net acre. The City of Ferndale has not adopted commercial or industrial planned densities (Exhibit 11). WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT The unincorporated portions of the Ferndale UGA have an achieved residential density of 0.3 units per acre, based on construction of three dwelling units in the 2016-2021 time period (Exhibit 11). Densities within the City limits are consistent with county planned urban densities for the City. The unincorporated areas serve as urban growth potential for future growth after annexation, when city zoning is adopted and public water and sewer provided. Population and Employment Assumptions Occupancy rate and population and employment density assumptions for the Ferndale UGA are: • 96.4% Single Family occupancy rate • 95.1% Multifamily occupancy rate • 95.0% Commercial and Industrial occupancy rate • 2.850 Single Family persons per household • 2.310 Multifamily persons per household • 580 and 1,129 respectively Commercial and Industrial square feet per employee PAGE 99 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 The Ferndale UGA has an estimated 3,853 population and 2,477 employment growth remaining to accommodate between 2021 and 2036 (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). Population Capacity 2021-2036 Based on achieved densities between 2016 and 2021 and planning assumptions, City of Ferndale planners are assuming future single family density between 5.0 and 7.0 units per acre depending on the zone, and between 7.0 and 15.0 units per acre for multifamily zones (Exhibit 4 7). The Ferndale UGA has estimated net land capacity for population growth of 561.94 acres (Exhibit 48), with a total estimated potential occupied unit capacity of 4,310 dwelling units. Based on persons per household assumptions, the UGA has an estimated population capacity of 10,786, indicating an estimated population capacity surplus of 6,933 (Exhibit 49). Housing Needs by Type The Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 3-Housing, Chart 3 -Estimated Dwelling Units Needed, page 3-8) indicates that Ferndale has a need for 2,024 single- family, 456 multi-family, and 125 other ("group housing") new dwelling units during the 2013-2036 planning period. The WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT calculation for Chart 3 in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan included building activity from 2013. Therefore, the analysis below includes permit data from April 1, 2013, even though the planning period for this Buildable Lands Report is from 2016. • Between April 1, 2013 and March 31, 2021, Ferndale issued building permits for 919 single-family and 532 multi-family units. No group housing, which in Ferndale are assisted living facilities, has been built during this time. Comparing units built and the needs indicated on Chart 3, Ferndale needs to accommodate an additional 1,105 single-family units and 125 group housing units between 2021 and 2036. • The City and unincorporated UGA have an estimated 2021-2036 capacity for 2,392 single-family and 1,918 multi-family housing units (Exhibit 49). The multi- family capacity includes group housing. These capacities are sufficient to accommodate the dwelling unit types anticipated in the planning period as established in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 3- Housing, Chart 3). PAGE 100 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Employment Capacity 2021-2036 Based on achieved densities between 2016 and 2021 and planning assumptions, City of Ferndale planners are assuming a future commercial FAR of 0.09 to 0.20 and an industrial FAR of 0.20 (Exhibit 50). The Ferndale UGA has estimated net land capacity for employment growth of 273.49 acres (Exhibit 51), with a total estimated potential occupied commercial and industrial capacity of approximately 2.5 million square feet. Based on square feet per employee assumptions, the Ferndale UGA has an estimated employment capacity of 3,484, indicating an estimated employment capacity surplus of 1,007 (Exhibit 52). Regulatory Changes The City has evaluated development regulations adopted in the review period (April 1, 2016 -March 31, 2021). Only Ordinances 1969 and 1976 could prevent assigned densities from being achieved or impact the quantity of land suitable for development in the remainder of the 20-year planning period (2021-2036). Both ordinances adopted new regulations for stormwater treatment within the City, these regulations may impact the ability to meet densities in the City's WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT multifamily zones that have minimum gross densities. During this period of time the City of Ferndale adopted several ordinances that would assist with realizing increased density within the UGA. Ordinance 1995 allowed for the establishment of Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) in all of the City's single family zones. Ordinance 217 4 further reduced barriers to the establishment of ADU s by eliminating off- street parking and owner occupancy requirements. The City of Ferndale created new multifamily zones through the adoption of ordinances 2026 and 2098. Ordinance 2026 established the Residential Multifamily Medium Density zone with a minimum density of 10 dwelling units and a maximum density of 30 dwelling units per gross acre. Ordinance 2098 established the Residential Multifamily High Density Zone with a minimum density of 15 dwelling units per gross acre and no maximum density. The City of Ferndale also adopted ordinance 2173 which allows duplex and single-family attached duplexes in single family residential zones which the City believes will assist infill development with attaining densities at or near the maximum permitted. PAGE 101 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Infrastructure Gaps The City of Ferndale has reviewed capital facility plans and/or consulted with service providers. Based upon these actions, the City has not identified any infrastructure gaps that would prevent service providers from supplying planned capital facilities to developable land in the Ferndale UGA. Analysis of Comprehensive Plan Objectives and Reasonable Measures The City of Ferndale has determined that growth targets and assumptions are being met. Therefore, an analysis of comprehensive plan development assumptions, targets, and objectives is not necessary. The City is realizing efficient development of the land within the UGA. The achieved density in the UGA is in part a result of the City establishing minimum densities in all of its residential zones. No inconsistencies between planned and actual growth have been identified in the Ferndale UGA. Therefore, reasonable measures are not required under RCW 36.70A.215. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 102 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Residential Development Exhibit 47. Residentia~ Development, Achieved and Assumed Densities, City of Ferndale, 2016-2021 Development Acres Dwelling Achieved Density Zoning Designation Type Developed Units Density Assumed (Units/Acre) (Units/Acre) RS-H Single Family 23.9 101 4.22 7.00 RS-M Single Family 42.4 241 5.68 6.00 Multifamily 3.0 66 21.89 N/A RS-L Single Family 38.1 197 5.18 5.00 MC Single Family 2.3 19 8.41 7.00 Multifamily 3.4 64 18.55 7.00 RMH Multifamily 0.4 8 22.22 15.00 RMM Single Family 3.9 2 0.51 N/A Multifamily 6.0 55 9.15 10.00 RO Single Family 1.0 5 4.76 N/A Multifamily 5.5 38 6.85 7.00 UR Multifamily 0.7 12 17.91 15.00 cc Multifamily 0.3 5 15.36 12.00 Sources: City of Ferndale, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: "Density Assumed" is the assumed density for evaluation of land suitable for development by zone. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 103 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 48. Residential Land Supply, Ferndale UGA, 2021-2036 UGA Total cc GB LI M MC RMH RMM Vacant Land Gross Acres 626.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 159.88 12.31 59.41 Critical Areas 262.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 69.41 9.78 28.40 Future Public Uses 13.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 17.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.52 0.13 l.55 Infrastructure Deduction 17.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.52 0.13 l.55 Market Factor 46.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.21 0.34 4.19 Net Acres 261.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 69.21 1.94 23.72 Partially-Used Land Gross Acres 664.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.06 0.00 6.73 Critical Areas 219.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.97 0.00 0.49 Future Public Uses 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 19.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.31 Infrastructure Deduction 19.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.31 Market Factor 87.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 l.14 0.00 l.40 Net Acres 261.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.43 0.00 4.21 Underutilized Land Gross Acres 76.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 32.61 5.77 27.l l Critical Areas 18.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.25 0.07 5.83 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 2.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 l.17 0.28 l.06 Infrastructure Deduction 2.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 l.17 0.28 l.06 Market Factor 12.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.26 l.28 4.79 Net Acres 38.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.77 3.85 14.36 Sources: City of Ferndale, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT RO RR RS-H RS-L RS-M 12.95 0.00 50.45 219.47 99.91 9.04 0.00 30.52 67.45 37.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 l.00 6.60 2.97 0.20 0.00 l.00 6.60 2.97 0.53 0.00 2.69 17.82 8.01 2.99 0.00 15.25 101.01 45.38 0.44 0.00 40.29 462.56 148.12 0.00 0.00 24.27 133.83 59.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.80 13.60 4.41 0.02 0.00 0.80 13.60 4.41 0.10 0.00 3.60 6 l.19 19.86 0.30 0.00 10.81 183.58 59.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 PAGE 104 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 UR 12.33 9.85 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.34 1.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.77 3.84 0.00 0.00 0.35 0.35 l.56 4.68 Exhibit 49. Developable Residential Land Capacity, Ferndale UGA, 2021-2036 UGA cc GB LI M MC RMH Net Developable Residential Acres (Vacant, PU, UU) 561.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 BB.41 5.78 Single Family Developable Acres 428.22 12.63 Assumed Single Family Density (units/acre) 7 Subtotal Single Family Unit Capacity 2,323 88 Existing Single Family Units 363 13 51 4 4 19 24 Pending Single Family Units 262 3 3 150 Master Planned Single Family Units Subtotal: Net Single Family Unit Capacity 2,392 3 3 219 Potential Occupied Single Family Units 2,306 3 3 211 Single Family Population Capacity 6,572 8 8 602 Multifamily Developable Acres 133.72 75.78 5.78 Assumed Multifamily Density (units/acre) 12 7 15 Subtotal Multifamily Unit Capacity 1,162 530 87 Existing Multifamily Units 180 4 16 5 7 Pending Multifamily Units 916 149 416 116 Master Planned Multifamily Units Subtotal: Net Multifamily Unit Capacity 1,918 149 941 196 Potential Occupied Multifamily Units 1,824 142 895 186 Multifamily Population Capacity 4,214 327 2,067 431 Net Dwelling Unit Capacity 4,310 152 3 1,160 196 Potential Occupied Dwelling Units 4,130 145 3 1,106 186 Population Capacity 10,786 335 8 2,669 431 Remaining Population Growth to Accommodate (2021-2036) 3,853 Population Capacity Surplus (Deficit) 6,933 Sources: City of Ferndale, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT RMM 42.29 30 42.29 10 423 131 190 482 458 1,059 482 458 1,059 RO RR RS-H RS-L RS-M 3.29 0.00 26.06 284.58 104.95 26.06 284.58 104.95 7 5 6 182 1,423 630 2 12 80 82 6 82 18 176 1,425 566 170 1,374 546 484 3,915 1,555 3.29 7 15 23 23 22 51 23 176 1,425 566 22 170 1,374 546 51 484 3,915 1,555 PAGE 105 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 UR 6.58 41 6.58 15 99 17 45 127 121 279 127 121 279 Commercial and Industrial Development Exhibit 50. Nonresidential Development, Achieved and Assumed Densities, City of Ferndale, 2016-2021 Zoning Designation Development Acres Built Square Achieved Assumed Tyee Develoeed Feet Density (FAR) Density {FAR) RS-H Commercial 1.3 2,337 0.04 N/A Industrial N/A N/A N/A N/A RS-M Commercial 4.4 3,012 0.02 N/A Industrial N/A N/A N/A N/A MC Commercial 16.8 105,793 0.14 0.09 Industrial 1.5 19,844 0.30 N/A RO Commercial N/A N/A N/A 0.09 Industrial N/A N/A N/A N/A GB Commercial 90.7 307,415 0.08 0.09 Industrial 39.4 269,619 0.16 0.15 M Commercial N/A N/A N/A N/A Industrial N/A N/A N/A. 0.20 LI Commercial N/A N/A N/A N/A Industrial 5.5 103,994 0.44 0.20 UR Commercial 0.3 7,061 0.49 0.09 Industrial N/A N/A N/A N/A cc Commercial 0.1 156 0.03 0.50 Industrial N/A N/A N/A N/A Sources: City of Ferndale, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: Assumed Density is the assumed density for evaluation of land suitable for development by zone. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 106 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 51. Developable Nonresidential Land Supply, Ferndale UGA, 2021-2036 UGA Total cc GB LI M MC Pub RMH Vacant Land Gross Acres 609.33 2.61 265.l l 47.23 130.31 68.52 8.20 0.00 Critical Areas 279.58 l.72 100.25 31.28 91.63 29.75 l.58 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 77.98 0.00 77.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 12.59 0.04 4.34 0.80 l.93 l.94 0.33 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 12.59 0.04 4.34 0.80 l.93 l.94 0.33 0.00 Market Factor 33.99 0.12 l l .73 2.15 5.22 5.23 0.89 0.00 Net Acres 192.61 0.68 66.46 12.20 29.59 29.66 5.06 0.00 Partially-Used Land Gross Acres l 4 l.41 0.00 105.28 9.19 24.24 2.60 0.00 0.00 Critical Areas 53.74 0.00 38.18 7.02 8.13 0.42 0.00 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 36.18 0.00 36.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 2.57 0.00 l.55 0.ll 0.81 0.1 l 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 2.57 0.00 l.55 0.1 l 0.81 0.1 l 0.00 0.00 Market Factor 11.58 0.00 6.96 0.49 3.62 0.49 0.00 0.00 Net Acres 34.75 0.00 20.87 1.46 10.87 1.47 0.00 0.00 Underutilized Land Gross Acres 213.28 2.29 124.32 39.76 9.30 13.98 0.00 0.00 Critical Areas 68.38 0.23 44.30 16.15 2.77 3.96 0.00 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 76.56 0.00 76.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 3.42 0.10 0.17 1.18 0.33 0.50 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 3.42 0.10 0.17 1.18 0.33 0.50 0.00 0.00 Market Factor 15.38 0.46 0.78 5.31 l.47 2.25 0.00 0.00 Net Acres 46.13 1.39 2.34 15.94 4.41 6.76 0.00 0.00 Sources: City of Ferndale, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT RMM 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RO RR RS-L RS-M UR 3.24 82.73 0.00 0.00 l.37 2.26 20.01 0.00 0.00 l.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 3.14 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 3.14 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.13 8.47 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.75 47.98 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.45 0.00 0.00 l.20 0.00 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 l.10 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 l.10 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 4.93 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 14.78 0.00 0.00 0.52 PAGE 107 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 52. Developable Nonresidential Land Capacity, Ferndale UGA, 2021-2036 UGA cc GB LI M MC Pub RMH Net Developable Employment Acres (Vacant, PU, UU) 273.49 2.07 89.67 29.60 44.87 37.89 5.06 0.00 Commercial Developable Acres 199.01 2.07 89.67 37.89 5.06 Assumed Commercial Density (FAR) 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 Subtotal: Commercial Capacity (SF) 981,204 45,050 351,548 -148,545 19,847 Existing Commercial Space (SF) 48,652 9,518 9,839 1,700 17,523 Pending Commercial Space (SF) 742,332 5,000 674,886 54,446 Master Planned Commercial Space (SF) Subtotal: Net Commercial Capacity (SF) 1,683,790 40,532 1,016,595 -185,468 19,847 Potential Occupied Commercial Space (SF) 1,599,601 38,505 965,766 -176,195 18,855 Commercial Employment Capacity 2,758 66 1,665 304 33 Industrial Developable Acres 74.48 29.60 44.87 Assumed Industrial Density (FAR) 0.2 0.2 0.2 Subtotal: Industrial Capacity (SF) 648,830 -257,902 390,928 Existing Industrial Space (SF) 123,676 24,919 4,000 29,076 60,939 1,984 Pending Industrial Space (SF) 246,662 -215,806 30,856 Master Planned Industrial Space (SF) Subtotal: Net Industrial Capacity (SF) 862,416 -215,806 253,902 392,708 Potential Occupied Industrial Space (SF) 819,295 -205,016 241,207 373,073 Industrial Employment Capacity 726 182 214 330 Net Commercial & Industrial Capacity (SF) 2,546,206 40,532 1,232,401 253,902 392,708 185,468 19,847 Potential Occupied Commercial & Industrial 2,418,896 38,505 l, 170,781 241,207 373,073 176,195 18,855 Employment Capacity 3,484 66 1,847 214 330 304 33 Remaining Employment Growth to Accommodate (2021-2036) 2,477 Employment Capacity Surplus (Deficit) 1,007 Sources: City of Ferndale, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT RMM 0.00 4,610 RO RR RS-L RS-M UR 0.82 62.77 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.82 62.77 0.73 0.1 0.2 0.1 3,220 410,128 2,866 1,200 4,262 8,000 3,220 410,128 8,000 3,059 389,622 7,600 5 672 13 0.2 1,200 1,558 3,220 410,128 8,000 3,059 389,622 7,600 5 672 13 PAGE 108 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 8. Lynden UGA The Lynden Urban Growth Area is projected to reach a total population and employment of 19,275 and 7,103 respectively by 2036. The UGA has projected allocation of 5,568 for population growth and 1,876 for employment growth between 2016 and 2036 (Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2). Achieved Growth 2016-2021 Based on permit data collected between 2016 and 2021 and occupancy and persons per household and square feet per employee assumptions, the Lynden UGA grew by an estimated 1,685 people (nearly 100% within the City of Lynden) and 624 jobs (100% within the City) (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). The City of Lynden has an overall achieved residential density of 7.2 units per net acre between 2016 and 2021. Lynden's single- family zones have built out at 4.8 units per net acre, its multi-family zones achieved 17.5 units per net acre. The overall achieved residential density of 7.2 units per net acre is greater than the adopted planned density of 5.0 units per acre in the 2016 City of Lynden Comprehensive Plan. The overall achieved residential density also falls within the adopted planned residential density for the City of Lynden of 6.0 to 10.0 units per net acre WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Exhibit 11). The unincorporated portions of the Lynden UGA have an achieved residential density of 1.7 units per acre (Exhibit 11). This density, which is based on construction of one dwelling unit in the 2016-2021 time period, lags county planned urban densities for the City. Land in the UGA, outside of City limits, is currently zoned for Agriculture or urban residential uses. The Agriculture zone does not allow urban densities. This land would need to be rezoned for urban land uses and served with public water and sewer, which typically occurs upon annexation. The urban residential zones in the unincorporated portion of the UGA do not allow urban densities until public water and sewer are available, which typically occurs upon annexation. These unincorporated areas serve as future urban growth potential. Until annexation, they do not have access to City infrastructure or urban densities. Neither the City of Lynden nor Whatcom County have adopted planned densities for commercial or industrial development. Between 2016 and 2021, commercial development in the City of Lynden achieved an overall FAR of 0.12. Totals for commercial development are skewed by one project -the PAGE 109 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 construction of the new Lynden Middle School on a 30-acre vacant parcel. That one project accounted for 60% of the built commercial square footage during this time. Industrial development saw an overall FAR of 0.26. This was largely driven by construction associated with Lynden Door, Inc expansion and the new cold storage plants built to store agricultural products. More than 400,000 square feet of new industrial space was built in the city limits during this time. The unincorporated areas of the Lynden UGA did not see any commercial or industrial development (Exhibit 11). Population and Employment Assumptions Specific occupancy rate and population and employment density assumptions for estimating future growth capacity in the Lynden UGA are: • 98.0% Single Family occupancy rate • 95.0% Multifamily occupancy rate • 95.0% Commercial and Industrial occupancy rate • 2.88 Single Family persons per household • 1. 70 Multifamily persons per household WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT • 721 and 1,037 respectively Commercial and Industrial square feet per employee Based on estimated growth since 2016 and population and employment projections adopted in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan, the Lynden UGA is expected to accommodate another 3,880 people and 1,252 jobs between 2021 and 2036 (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). Population Capacity 2021-2036 Based on achieved densities between 2016 and 2021 and planning assumptions, City of Lynden planners are assuming future single family density of 4.0 and 8.0 units per acre depending on the zone. Assumed multifamily densities range between 8.0 and 24.0 units per acre (Exhibit 53). The Lynden UGA has an estimated net land capacity for population growth of 459.5 acres (Exhibit 54), with a total estimated potential occupied unit capacity of 3,481 dwelling units. Based on persons per household assumptions, the UGA has an estimated population capacity of 8,467, indicating an estimated population capacity surplus of 4,587 (Exhibit 55). PAGE 110 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Housing Needs by Type The Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 3-Housing, Chart 3 -Estimated Dwelling Units Needed, page 3-8) indicates that Lynden has a need for 1,887 single- family, 627 multi-family, and 97 other ("group housing") new dwelling units during the 2013- 2036 planning period. The calculation for Chart 3 in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan included building activity from 2013. Therefore, the analysis below includes permit data from April 1, 2013, even though the planning period for this Buildable Lands Report is from 2016. • Between April 1, 2013 and March 31, 2021, Lynden issued building permits for 652 single-family and 551 multi-family units. No group housing, which in Lynden are assisted living facilities, has been built during this time. Comparing units built and the needs indicated on Chart 3, Lynden needs an additional 1,235 single-family units, 76 multi-family units, and 97 group housing units between 2021 and 2036. • The City and unincorporated UGA have an estimated 2021-2036 capacity for 2,204 single-family and 1,391 multi-family housing units (Exhibit 55). The multi- family capacity includes group housing. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT These capacities are sufficient to accommodate the dwelling unit types needed in the planning period as established in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 3-Housing, Chart 3). Employment Capacity 2021-2036 Looking forward, Lynden is assuming a FAR of 0.184 for future commercial development. This number (0.184) is the average achieved commercial FAR for all the small cities in the County between 2016-2021. Lynden is using this assumption, which is different than its achieved commercial FAR of 0.12 because Lynden's achieved commercial development data during this time was skewed by the Lynden Middle School project. Additionally, Lynden is assuming a FAR of 0.26 for future industrial development. This is what was achieved for industrial development between 2016-2021 (Exhibit 56). The Lynden UGA has an estimated net land capacity for employment growth of 388.4 acres (Exhibit 57), with a total estimated potential occupied commercial and industrial capacity of 3. 7 million square feet. Based on square feet per employee assumptions, the Lynden UGA has an estimated employment capacity of 4,038, indicating an estimated employment capacity surplus of 2,786 (Exhibit 58). PAGE 111 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Regulatory Changes Since 2016, the City of Lynden has approved several regulatory changes that impact either the amount of land available for development, or the densities and types of development allowed on buildable lands. These regulatory changes are documented in the Data Reporting Tool worksheet. Three annexations brought more than 90 acres of unincorporated UGA into the City, the largest (80 acres) of which is in the Pepin Creek Subarea, the area expected to house the majority of incoming residents during the remainder of the planning period. Subsequently, the City adopted the Pepin Creek Subarea Plan which established zoning designations (including the RM-PC zone which is a new multifamily zone), development densities (including minimum density requirements), transportation routes, and recreational and open space opportunities within this 460-acre subarea. Multiple rezones and Comprehensive Plan Amendments have been approved that are adapting to employment growth needs (i.e. increasing Industrial lands) and, in general, trend toward rezoning land to increase residential densities. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT The City updated its Critical Areas Ordinance and Shoreline Master Program, which regulate potential impacts to environmental resources. These regulations restrict development in protected locations, as they establish buffers, setbacks, and the regulatory process for protecting these resources. The City has considered known critical areas and their buffers in its evaluation of population and employment growth and determined that the land supply can still accommodate projected growth during the remainder of the planning period. Finally, other regulatory updates expanded the allowed types of commercial uses in commercial zones and business parks, incentivized low impact development techniques, and eased restrictions for making an accessory dwelling unit legal on residential properties. Infrastructure Gaps The City of Lynden has reviewed capital facility plans and/or consulted with service providers that will provide service for future growth. Based on this review, Lynden has not identified infrastructure gaps that would prevent service providers from supplying planned capital facilities to developable land in the Lynden UGA within the planning period (2021-2036). PAGE 112 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Analysis of Comprehensive Plan Objectives and Reasonable Measures The City of Lynden has determined that growth targets and assumptions are being met. Therefore, an analysis of comprehensive plan development assumptions, targets, and objectives is not necessary. No inconsistencies between planned and actual growth have been identified in the Lynden UGA. Therefore, reasonable measures are not required under RCW 36. 70A.215. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 113 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Residential Development Exhibit 53. Residential Development, Achieved and Assumed Densities, City of Lynden, 2016-2021 Zoning Development Acres Dwelling Achieved Density Designation Type Developed Units Density Assumed (Units/ Acre) (Units/ Acre) RS-100 Single Family 25.9 93 3.59 4.00 Multifamily 0.4 4 8.97 N/A RS-84 Single Family 0.4 2 4.82 4.50 RS-72 Single Family 41.8 236 5.65 5.00 RMD Single Family 8.7 16 1.84 8.00 Multifamily 0.7 9 12.42 N/A MH Single Family N/A N/A N/A RM-1 Single Family 0.5 5 10.90 N/A Multifamily 1.7 14 8.36 8.00 RM-2 Single Family 2.1 11 5.29 N/A M ult if amily 1.5 17 11.01 12.00 RM-3 Single Family 6.4 49 7.60 N/A Multifamily 10.0 144 14.34 16.00 RM-4 Multifamily 0.7 12 16.76 24.00 RM-PC Multifamily N/A N/A N/A 12.00 CSL Multifamily 3.3 128 38.88 N/A HBO Multifamily 0.2 9 50.01 N/A Sources: City of Lynden, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: "Density Assumed" is the assumed density for evaluation of land suitable for development by zone. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 114 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 54. Residential Land Supply, Lynden UGA, 2021-2036 UGA Total RS-100 RS-84 RS-72 Vacant Land Gross Acres 345.52 49.26 0.00 52.72 Critical Areas 69.30 19.58 0.00 3.65 Future Public Uses 1.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 13.75 1.48 0.00 2.45 Infrastructure Deduction 13.75 l.48 0.00 2.45 Market Factor 37.12 4.01 0.00 6.62 Net Acres 210.33 22.71 0.00 37.54 Partially-Used Land Gross Acres 426.03 81.78 0.00 70.51 Critical Areas 68.26 13.28 0.00 7.60 Future Public Uses 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 17.88 3.43 0.00 3.15 Infrastructure Deduction 17.88 3.43 0.00 3.15 Market Factor 80.44 15.41 0.00 14.15 Net Acres 241.31 46.24 0.00 42.46 Underutilized Land Gross Acres 11.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 Critical Areas 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 tv"\arket Factor 2.6 l 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net Acres 7.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sources: City of Lynden, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT RMD MH 140.61 0.00 19.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.08 0.00 6.08 0.00 16.41 0.00 9298 0.00 161.34 19.21 4.58 8.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.84 0.53 7.84 0.53 35.27 2.37 105.81 7.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RM-1 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 O.Q2 0.06 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RM-2 RM-3 RM-4 RM-PC CSR CSL ID 22.74 0.27 3.82 75.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.65 0.00 0.00 18.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64 O.Ol 0.19 2.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64 0.01 0.19 2.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.73 0.04 0.52 7.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.80 0.20 2.92 43.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 58.46 29.62 5.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.96 14.71 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.97 0.73 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.97 0.73 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.89 3.29 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 26.66 9.88 3.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 10.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.27 2.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 7.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 PAGE 115 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 IBZ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Exhibit 55. Developable Residential Land Capacity, Lynden UGA, 2021-2036 UGA RS-100 RS-84 RS-72 Net Developable Residential Acres (Vacant, PU, UU) 459.46 68.95 0.00 80.00 Single Family Developable Acres 354.85 68.95 -80.00 Assumed Single Family Density (units/acre) 4 5 5 Subtotal Single Family Unit Capacity 2,266 276 400 Existing Single Family Units 167 33 24 Pending Single Family Units Master Planned Single Family Units Subtotal: Net Single Family Unit Capacity 2,204 243 376 Potential Occupied Single Family Units 2,160 238 368 Single Family Population Capacity 6,221 686 -1,061 Multifamily Developable Acres 104.62 Assumed Multifamily Density [units/acre) Subtotal Multifamily Unit Capacity 1,395 Existing Multifamily Units 8 Pending Multifamily Units Master Planned Multifamily Units Subtotal: Net Multifamily Unit Capacity 1,391 Potential Occupied Multifamily Units 1,321 Multifamily Population Capacity 2,246 Net Dwelling Unit Capacity 3,595 243 376 Potential Occupied Dwelling Units 3,481 238 368 Population Capacity 8,467 686 -1,061 Remaining Population Growth to Accommodate (2021-2036) 3,880 Population Capacity Surplus (Deficit) 4,587 Sources: City of Lynden, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT RMD MH 198.80 7.10 198.80 7.10 8 1,590 5 29 1,585 1,553 4,474 - 1,585 1,553 4,474 RM-1 RM-2 RM-3 RM-4 RM-PC CSR CSL ID 0.32 0.32 8 3 3 3 5 3 3 5 37.28 17.09 6.07 43.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 19 12 23 20 37.28 17.09 6.07 43.86 12 16 24 12 447 273 146 526 4 4 443 273 146 526 421 259 139 500 715 441 236 849 443 273 146 526 421 259 139 500 715 441 236 849 PAGE 116 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 IBZ 0.00 Commercial and Industrial Development Exhibit 56. Nonresidential Development, Achieved and Assumed Densities, City of Lynden, 2016-2021 Zoning Development Acres Built Square Achieved Assumed Designation Ty~e Develo~ed Feet Density (FAR) Density (FAR) RS-72 Commercial 30.6 113,444 0.09 CSR Commercial 3.0 31,976 0.25 0.18 CSL Commercial 2.7 37,744 0.32 0.18 HBO Commercial 0.18 ID Industrial 16.1 198,000 0.28 0.26 IBZ Commercial 1.5 8,112 0.13 Industrial 15.5 185,818 0.28 0.26 PU Industrial 3.9 22,000 0.13 Sources: City of Lynden, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: Assumed Density is the assumed density for evaluation of land suitable for development by zone. RS-72 development was a School. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 117 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 57. Developable Nonresidential Land Supply, Lynden UGA, 2021-2036 UGA Total RS-100 RM-2 RM-3 RM-4 CSR CSL HBD ID IBZ PU Vacant Land Gross Acres 299.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 69.80 17.52 0.00 78.25 134.01 0.00 Critical Areas 16.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.93 5.32 0.00 3.10 0.32 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 14.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.09 0.61 0.00 3.76 6.68 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 14.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.09 0.61 0.00 3.76 6.68 0.00 Market Factor 38.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.35 1.65 0.00 10.15 18.05 0.00 Net Acres 216.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 47.34 9.33 0.00 57.49 102.27 0.00 Partially-Used Land Gross Acres 82.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 39.30 3.66 0.00 31.50 7.80 0.00 Critical Areas 5.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 3.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.72 0.18 0.00 1.57 0.35 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 3.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.72 0.18 0.00 1.57 0.35 0.00 Market Factor 17.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.73 0.82 0.00 7.09 1.57 0.00 Net Acres 51.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.19 2.47 0.00 21.26 4.72 0.00 Underutilized Land Gross Acres 186.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 82.57 26.22 0.00 62.72 15.19 0.00 Critical Areas 8.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.72 0.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 8.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.74 1.27 0.00 3.14 0.76 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 8.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.74 1.27 0.00 3.14 0.76 0.00 Market Factor 40.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.84 5.72 0.00 14.11 3.42 0.00 Net Acres 120.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.52 17.17 0.00 42.33 10.25 0.00 Sources: City of Lynden, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY PAGE 118 BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 58. Developable Nonresidential Land Capacity, Lynden UGA, 2021-2036 Net Developable Employment Acres (Vacant, PU, UU) Commercial Developable Acres Assumed Commercial Density (FAR) Subtotal: Commercial Capacity (SF) Existing Commercial Space (SF) Pending Commercial Space (SF) Master Planned Commercial Space (SF) UGA 388.35 150.02 1,202,435 16,054 Subtotal: Net Commercial Capacity (SF) l, 195,888 Potential Occupied Commercial Space (SF) l, 136,094 RS-100 RM-2 RM-3 RM-4 CSR CSL HBD ID 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 121.05 28.97 0.00 121.09 121.05 28.97 0.2 0.2 0.2 -970,220 232,215 5,281 1,266 -964,939 230,949 -916,692 219,402 IBZ PU 117.24 0.00 9,507 -------------------------------Commercial Employment Capacity Industrial Developable Acres Assumed Industrial Density (FAR) Subtotal: Industrial Capacity (SF) Existing Industrial Space (SF) Pending Industrial Space (SF) Master Planned Industrial Space (SF) Subtotal: Net Industrial Capacity (SF) Potential Occupied Industrial Space (SF) Industrial Employment Capacity Net Commercial & Industrial Capacity (SF) 1,575 238.33 2,699,209 62,752 14,128 5,568 6,888 6,080 2,688,861 2,554,418 2,463 1,271 304 1,200 18,540 121.09 0.3 117.24 0.3 -1,371,372 1,327,837 10,348 -1,361,024 1,327,837 -1,292,973 1,261,445 1,247 1,216 3,884,749 -964,939 230,949 -1,361,024 1,327,837 Potential Occupied Commercial & Industrial 3,690,512 -916,692 219,402 -1,292,973 1,261,445 -------------------------------Em p Io y men t Capacity 4,038 1,271 304 1,247 1,216 Remaining Employment Growth to Accommodate (2021-2036) Employment Capacity Surplus (Deficit) 1,252 2,786 Sources: City of Lynden, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 119 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 9. Nooksack UGA The Nooksack Urban Growth Area is projected to reach a total population and employment of 2,425 and 369 respectively by 2036. The UGA has projected growth allocation of 861 for population and 100 for employment between 2016 and 2036 (Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2). Achieved Growth 2016-2021 Based on permit data collected between 2016 and 2021 and occupancy and persons per household and square feet per employee assumptions, the Nooksack UGA grew by an estimated 177 population and 8 employment (100% within the City) (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). Between 2016 and 2021, the City of Nooksack achieved an overall residential density of 5.2 units per acre. No development occurred within the unincorporated area of the UGA within the period. The City of Nooksack Comprehensive Plan has an adopted planned residential density of 4.4 units per acre. The Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan has adopted planned residential density of 4.0 to 6.0 units per acre. Achieved residential density within the City of Nooksack exceeded the minimum planned density (Exhibit 11). WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT The City Comprehensive Plan references planned densities for commercial and industrial developed based on the Whatcom County Land Capacity Analysis. Whatcom County has not adopted planned densities for commercial or industrial uses. The City achieved a commercial FAR of 0.14, below the planned density of 0.25. The adopted planned industrial FAR is 0.10. No industrial development occurred within the City during the review period (Exhibit 11). Population and Employment Assumptions Specific occupancy rate and population and employment density assumptions for estimating future growth capacity in the Nooksack UGA are: • 96.9% Single Family occupancy rate • 94.5% Multifamily occupancy rate • 95.0% Commercial and Industrial occupancy rate • 3.088 Single Family persons per household • 3.173 Multifamily persons per household • 605 and 795 respectively Commercial and Industrial square feet per employee The Nooksack UGA has an estimated 687 population and 92 employment growth PAGE 120 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 remaining to accommodate between 2021 and 2036 (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). Population Capacity 2021-2036 The City of Nooksack is utilizing achieved densities (when available) when estimating future residential land capacity. Based on achieved densities between 2016 and 2021 and planning assumptions, City of Nooksack planners are assuming future single family density between 3.9 and 5.9 units per acre for single family residential development. The Nooksack UGA does not include any multifamily zones (Exhibit 59). The Nooksack UGA has estimated net land capacity for population growth of 89.8 acres (Exhibit 60), with a total estimated potential occupied unit capacity of 416 dwelling units. Based on persons per household assumptions, the UGA has an estimated population capacity of 1,283, indicating an estimated population capacity surplus of 599 (Exhibit 61). Housing Needs by Type The Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 3-Housing, Chart 3 -Estimated Dwelling Units Needed, page 3-8) indicates that Nooksack has a need for 243 single- family, 48 multi-family, and 49 other ("group housing") new dwelling units during the 2013- WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT 2036 planning period. The calculation for Chart 3 in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan included building activity from 2013. Therefore, the analysis below includes permit data from April 1, 2013, even though the planning period for this Buildable Lands Report is from 2016. • Between April 1, 2013 and March 31, 2021, Nooksack issued building permits for 49 single-family and 10 multi-family units. No group housing has been built during this time. Comparing units built and the needs indicated on Chart 3, Nooksack needs an additional 194 single-family units, 38 multi- family units, and 49 group housing units between 2021 and 2036. • The City and unincorporated UGA have an estimated 2021-2036 capacity for 425 single-family and 4 multi-family housing units (Exhibit 61). The multi-family capacity includes group housing. Given that Nooksack does not have a designated multi- family zoning district and that multi-family development is allowed in the City's single- family zones, it is anticipated that some of the above single-family capacity will be utilized to accommodate multi-family and group housing needs. These capacities are sufficient to accommodate the dwelling unit types needed in the planning PAGE 121 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 period as established in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 3-Housing, Chart 3). Employment Capacity 2021-2036 Based on achieved densities between 2016 and 2021 and planning assumptions, City of Nooksack planners are assuming a future commercial FAR of 0.26 and an industrial FAR of 0.10 (Exhibit 62). The Nooksack UGA has estimated net land capacity for employment growth of 38.5 acres (Exhibit 63), with a total estimated potential occupied commercial and industrial capacity of 238,772 square feet. Based on square feet per employee assumptions, the Nooksack UGA has an estimated employment capacity of 355, indicating an estimated employment capacity surplus of 263 (Exhibit 64). Regulatory Changes The City of Nooksack has not identified any regulatory changes that would prevent assigned densities from being achieved or impact the quantity of land suitable for development during the remainder of the planning period. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT Infrastructure Gaps The City of Nooksack has not identified any infrastructure gaps that would prevent assigned densities from being achieved or impact the quantity of land suitable for development during the remainder of the planning period (2021 to 2036). Analysis of Comprehensive Plan Objectives and Reasonable Measures The City of Nooksack has determined that growth targets and assumptions are being met to a reasonable degree; therefore, an analysis of comprehensive plan development targets, assumptions and objectives is not deemed necessary. Based on the results presented in the Buildable Land Report, implementation of reasonable measures is not deemed necessary. If in the future it is determined that Reasonable Measures are appropriate, then the following measures could be considered for implementation: • Increase residential densities by reducing minimum lot sizes in the Residential District above the increases likely to result from establishment of the Residential-8600 Subzone. PAGE 122 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 • Reduce limitations on the placement of multifamily structures in the Residential District. • Establish a multifamily residential zoning district. • Increase opportunities for construction of accessory dwelling units (ADUs). WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 123 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Residential Development Exhibit 59. Residential Development, Achieved and Assumed Densities, City of Nooksack, 2016-2021 Z • D I t Acres D 11 • Achieved Density onmg eve opmen we mg D · t· T D I d un·its Density Assumed esIgna IOn ype eve ope RES RES-8600 AG UR Single Family Multifamily Single Family Single Family 5.6 1.3 4.4 Sources: City of Nooksack, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. 23 10 26 (Units/ Acre) (Units/ Acre) 4.11 3.93 7.97 5.88 5.88 4.80 Note: "Density Assumed" is the assumed density for evaluation of land suitable for development by zone. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 124 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 60. Residential Land Supply, Nooksack UGA, 2021-2036 UGA Total RES RES-COM CMD LI AG UR 8600 Vacant Land Gross Acres 83.36 43.41 9.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.29 Critical Areas 28.68 16.68 3.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.69 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 2.73 1.34 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.08 Infrastructure Deduction 2.73 1.34 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.08 Mark et Factor 7.38 3.61 0.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.92 Net Acres 41.83 20.44 4.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.52 Partially-Used Land Gross Acres 87.19 86.08 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Critical Areas 16.08 16.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 3.56 3.50 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 3.56 3.50 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Market Factor 16.00 15.75 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net Acres 48.00 47.25 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Underutilized Land Gross Acres 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Critical Areas 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Mark et Factor 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net Acres 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sources: City of Nooksack, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY PAGE 125 BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 61. Developable Residential Land Capacity, Nooksack UGA, 2021-2036 UGA RES RES-COM CMD LI AGUR 8600 Net Developable Residential Acres (Vacant, PU, UU) 89.83 67.70 5.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.52 Single Family Developable Acres 89.83 67.70 5.61 16.52 Assumed Single Family Density (units/acre) 4 6 5 Subtotal Single Family Unit Capacity 378 266 33 79 Existing Single Family Units 33 21 l 8 2 Pending Single Family Units 69 8 61 Master Planned Single Family Units Subtotal: Net Single Family Unit Capacity 425 253 93 79 Potential Occupied Single Family Units 412 245 90 77 Single Family Population Capacity 1,271 757 278 236 Multifamily Developable Acres Assumed Multifamily Density (units/acre) Subtotal Multifamily Unit Capacity Existing Multifamily Units Pending Multifamily Units 4 4 Master Planned Multifamily Units Subtotal: Net Multifamily Unit Capacity 4 4 Potential Occupied Multifamily Units 4 4 Multifamily Population Capacity 12 12 Net Dwelling Unit Capacity 429 253 97 79 Potential Occupied Dwelling Units 416 245 94 77 Population Capacity 1,283 757 290 236 Remaining Population Growth to Accommodate (2021-2036) 684 Population Capacity Surplus (Deficit) 599 Sources: City of Nooksack, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 126 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Commercial and Industrial Development Exhibit 62. Nonresidential Development, Achieved and Assumed Densities, City of Nooksack, 2016-2021 Zoning Development Acres Built Square Achieved Assumed Designation Tyee Develoeed Feet Density {FAR} Density {FAR} COM Commercial 0.6 3,765 0.14 0.25 CMD Commercial 0.2 1,160 0.15 0.25 LI Industrial 0.10 Sources: City of Nooksack, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: Assumed Density is the assumed density for evaluation of land suitable for development by zone. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 127 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 63. Developable Nonresidential Land Supply, Nooksack UGA, 2021-2036 UGA Total RES RES-8600 COM CMD LI AG UR Vacant Land Gross Acres 19.96 0.00 0.00 2.10 0.17 17.70 0.00 Critical Areas 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 0.96 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.01 0.89 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 0.96 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.01 0.89 0.00 Market Factor 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.02 2.39 0.00 Net Acres 14.71 0.00 0.00 1.04 0.13 13.54 0.00 Partially-Used Land Gross Acres 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 Critical Areas 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 Market Factor 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net Acres 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 Underutilized Land Gross Acres 38.53 0.00 0.00 21.10 0.59 16.83 0.00 Critical Areas 3.73 0.00 0.00 3.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 1.74 0.00 0.00 0.87 0.03 0.84 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction l.74 0.00 0.00 0.87 0.03 0.84 0.00 Market Factor 7.83 0.00 0.00 3.91 0.13 3.79 0.00 Net Acres 23.49 0.00 0.00 11.72 0.40 11.36 0.00 Sources: City of Nooksack, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY PAGE 128 BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 64. Developable Nonresidential Land Capacity, Nooksack UGA, 2021-2036 UGA RES RES-8600 COM CMD LI AG UR Net Developable Employment Acres (Vacant, PU, UU) 38.50 0.00 0.00 13.07 0.53 24.90 0.00 Commercial Developable Acres 13.59 13.07 0.53 Assumed Commercial Density (FAR) 0.3 0.3 Subtotal: Commercial Capacity (SF) 148,035 142,288 5,747 Existing Commercial Space (SF) Pending Commercial Space (SF) Master Planned Commercial Space (SF) Subtotal: Net Commercial Capacity (SF) 148,035 142,288 5,747 Potential Occupied Commercial Space (SF) 140,633 135,174 5,460 Commercial Employment Capacity 232 223 9 Industrial Developable Acres 24.90 24.90 Assumed Industrial Density (FAR) 0.1 Subtotal: Industrial Capacity (SF) 108,486 108,486 Existing Industrial Space (SF) 8,622 3,440 5,182 Pending Industrial Space (SF) Master Planned Industrial Space (SF) Subtotal: Net Industrial Capacity (SF) 103,304 103,304 Potential Occupied Industrial Space (SF) 98,139 98,139 Industrial Employment Capacity 123 123 Net Commercial & Industrial Capacity (SF) 251,339 142,288 5,747 103,304 Potential Occupied Commercial & Industrial 238,772 135,174 5,460 98,139 Employment Capacity 355 223 9 123 Remaining Employment Growth to Accommodate (2021-2036) 92 Employment Capacity Surplus (Deficit) 263 Sources: City of Nooksack, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY PAGE 129 BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 10. Sumas UGA The Sumas Urban Growth Area is projected to reach a total population and employment of 2,323 and 1,145 respectively by 2036. The UGA has projected growth allocation of 760 for population and 387 for employment between 2016 and 2036 (Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2). Achieved Growth 2016-2021 Based on permit data collected between 2016 and 2021 and occupancy and persons per household and square feet per employee assumptions, the Sumas UGA grew by an estimated 190 population and 65 employment (100% within the City) (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). Between 2016 and 2021, the City of Sumas achieved an overall residential density of 7.5 units per acre. No development occurred within the unincorporated area of the UGA within the period. The City of Sumas Comprehensive Plan has an adopted planned residential density of 4.9 units per acre. The Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan has adopted planned residential density of 4.0 to 6.0 units per acre. Achieved residential density within the City of Sumas exceeded both the City and County planned densities (Exhibit 11). WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT The City Comprehensive Plan references planned densities for commercial and industrial developed based on the Whatcom County Land Capacity Analysis. Whatcom County has not adopted planned densities for commercial or industrial uses. No commercial development occurred within the City during the review period. The City achieved an industrial FAR of 0.12, exceeding slightly the planned density of 0.11. The adopted planned commercial FAR is 0.22 (Exhibit 11). Population and Employment Assumptions Specific occupancy rate and population and employment density assumptions for estimating future growth capacity in the Sumas UGA are: • 95.8% Single Family occupancy rate • 82.2% Multifamily occupancy rate • 95.0% Commercial and Industrial occupancy rate • 3.008 Single Family persons per household • 2.199 Multifamily persons per household • 669 and 890 respectively Commercial and Industrial square feet per employee The Sumas UGA has an estimated 570 population and 322 employment growth PAGE 130 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 remaining to accommodate between 2021 and 2036 (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). Population Capacity 2021-2036 Based on achieved densities between 2016 and 2021 and planning assumptions, City of Sumas planners are assuming future single family density between 2.5 and 4.5 units per acre for single family residential development. Assumed density for future multifamily development is 13.5 units per acre (Exhibit 65). The Sumas UGA has estimated net land capacity for population growth of 65.8 acres (Exhibit 66), with a total estimated potential occupied unit capacity of 435 dwelling units. Based on persons per household assumptions, the UGA has an estimated population capacity of 1,073, indicating an estimated population capacity surplus of 503 (Exhibit 67). Housing Needs by Type The Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 3-Housing, Chart 3 -Estimated Dwelling Units Needed, page 3-8) indicates that Sumas has a need for 168 single-family, 146 multi-family, and 47 other ("group housing") new dwelling units during the 2013- 2036 planning period. The calculation for Chart 3 in the Whatcom County WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT Comprehensive Plan included building activity from 2013. Therefore, the analysis below includes permit data from April 1, 2013, even though the planning period for this Buildable Lands Report is from 2016. • Between April 1, 2013 and March 31, 2021, Sumas issued building permits for 57 single-family and 45 multi-family units. No group housing has been built during this time. Comparing units built and the needs indicated on Chart 3, Sumas needs an additional 111 single-family units, 101 multi-family units, and 47 group housing units between 2021 and 2036. • The City and unincorporated UGA have an estimated 2021-2036 capacity for 151 single-family and 353 multi-family housing units (Exhibit 67). The multi-family capacity includes group housing. These capacities are sufficient to accommodate the dwelling unit types needed in the planning period as established in the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 3-Housing, Chart 3). Employment Capacity 2021-2036 The City of Sumas is utilizing achieved densities (when available) when estimating future land capacity. Based on achieved PAGE 131 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 densities between 2016 and 2021 and planning assumptions, City of Sumas planners are assuming a future commercial FAR between 0.22 and 0.50 depending on the specific zone and an industrial FAR of 0.12 (Exhibit 68). The Sumas UGA has estimated net land capacity for employment growth of 110.6 acres (Exhibit 69), with a total estimated potential occupied commercial and industrial capacity of 601,950 square feet. Based on square feet per employee assumptions, the Sumas UGA has an estimated employment capacity of 758, indicating an estimated employment capacity surplus of 436 (Exhibit 70). Regulatory Changes The City of Sumas has not identified any regulatory changes that would prevent assigned densities from being achieved or impact the quantity ofland suitable for development during the remainder of the planning period. Infrastructure Gaps The City of Sumas has not identified any infrastructure gaps that would prevent assigned densities from being achieved or impact the quantity of land suitable for development during the remainder of the planning period (2021 to 2036). WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT Analysis of Comprehensive Plan Objectives and Reasonable Measures The City of Sumas has determined that growth targets and assumptions are being met to a reasonable degree; therefore, an analysis of comprehensive plan development targets, assumptions and objectives is not deemed necessary. Based on the results presented in the Buildable Land Report, implementation of reasonable measures is not deemed necessary. If in the future it is determined that Reasonable Measures are appropriate, then the following measures could be considered for implementation: • Increase residential densities by reducing minimum lot sizes in the Residential, Low- Density zoning district. • Reduce conditional use permitting requirements for construction of multifamily structures in the Residential, High-Density zoning district. • Increase opportunities for construction of accessory dwelling units (ADUs). PAGE 132 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Residential Development Exhibit 65. Residential Development, Achieved and Assumed Densities, City of Sumas, 2016-2021 Zoning Development Acres Dwelling Achieved Density Designation Type Developed Units Density Assumed {Units/ Acre) {Units/ Acre) RES LOW Single Family 0.8 2 2.44 2.50 RES MED Single Family 5.5 27 4.91 4.50 RES HIGH Single Family 2.5 12 4.77 Multifamily 1.8 36 19.54 13.50 BUS GEN Multifamily 0.1 4 44.44 Sources: City of Sumas, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: "Density Assumed" is the assumed density for evaluation of land suitable for development by zone. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 133 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 66. Residential Land Supply, Sumas UGA, 2021-2036 UGA Total RES LOW RES MED RES HIGH BUS GEN LI BUSTO BUS LOW Vacant Land Gross Acres 69.68 4.36 24.36 40.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Critical Areas 27.26 2.80 3.96 20.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 2.12 0.08 1.02 1.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 2.12 0.08 1.02 1.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Market Factor 5.73 0.21 2.75 2.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net Acres 32.45 1.19 15.61 15.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Partially-Used Land Gross Acres 84.72 38.38 25.39 20.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Critical Areas 35.27 16.40 13.52 5.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 2.47 1.10 0.59 0.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 2.47 1.10 0.59 0.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Market Factor 11.13 4.95 2.67 3.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net Acres 33.38 14.84 8.01 10.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Underutilized Land Gross Acres 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Critical Areas 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Market Factor 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net Acres 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sources: City of Sumas, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 134 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 67. Developable Residential Land Capacity, Sumas UGA, 2021-2036 UGA RES LOW RES MED RES HIGH Net Developable Residential Acres (Vacant, PU, UU) 65.83 16.03 23.63 26.17 Single Family Developable Acres 39.66 16.03 23.63 Assumed Single Family Density (units/acre) 3 5 Subtotal Single Family Unit Capacity 146 40 106 Existing Single Family Units 38 6 7 9 Pending Single Family Units 18 18 Master Planned Single Family Units Subtotal: Net Single Family Unit Capacity 151 34 117 Potential Occupied Single Family Units 145 33 112 Single Family Population Capacity 435 98 337 Multifamily Developable Acres 26.17 26.17 Assumed Multifamily Density (units/acre) 14 Subtotal Multifamily Unit Capacity 353 353 Existing Multifamily Units 4 Pending Multifamily Units Master Planned Multifamily Units Subtotal: Net Multifamily Unit Capacity 353 353 Potential Occupied Multifamily Units 290 290 Multifamily Population Capacity 638 638 Net Dwelling Unit Capacity 504 34 117 353 Potential Occupied Dwelling Units 435 33 112 290 Population Capacity 1,073 98 337 638 Remaining Population Growth to Accommodate (2021-2036) 570 Population Capacity Surplus (Deficit) 503 Sources: City of Sumas, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT BUS GEN LI BUS TO BUS LOW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13 2 4 PAGE 135 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Commercial and Industrial Development Exhibit 68. Nonresidential Development, Achieved and Assumed Densities, City of Sumas, 2016-2021 Zoning Development Acres Built Square Achieved Assumed Designation Tyee Develoeed Feet Density (FAR} Density (FAR} RES LOW Commercial N/A N/A N/A 0.50 RES MED Commercial N/A N/A N/A 0.44 RES HIGH Commercial N/A N/A N/A 0.25 BUS GEN Commercial N/A N/A N/A 0.22 BUSTO Commercial N/A N/A N/A 0.22 BUS LOW Commercial N/A N/A N/A 0.22 LI Industrial 11.2 60,549 0.12 0.12 Sources: City of Sumas, 2022; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. Note: Assumed Density is the assumed density for evaluation of land suitable for development by zone. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 136 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 69. Developable Nonresidential Land Supply, Sumas UGA, 2021-2036 UGA Total RES LOW RES MED RES HIGH BUS GEN LI BUS TO BUS LOW Vacant Land Gross Acres 206.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.15 168.29 32.89 0.21 Critical Areas 97.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.19 88.44 7.08 0.21 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 5.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 3.99 1.29 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 5.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 3.99 1.29 0.00 Market Factor 14.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 10.78 3.48 0.00 Net Acres 83.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.26 61.08 19.75 0.00 Partially-Used Land Gross Acres 13.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.87 0.00 0.00 Critical Areas 6.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.35 0.00 0.00 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.38 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.38 0.00 0.00 Market Factor 1.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.69 0.00 0.00 Net Acres 5.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.08 0.00 0.00 Underutilized Land Gross Acres 50.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.11 45.62 0.00 0.29 Critical Areas 16.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.98 15.54 0.00 0.29 Future Public Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Gaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Quasi-Public Use Deduction 1.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 1.50 0.00 0.00 Infrastructure Deduction 1.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 1.50 0.00 0.00 Market Factor 7.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.70 6.77 0.00 0.00 Net Acres 22.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.11 20.31 0.00 0.00 Sources: City of Sumas, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PAGE 137 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 Exhibit 70. Developable Nonresidential Land Capacity, Sumas UGA, 2021-2036 UGA RES LOW RES MED RES HIGH Net Developable Employment Acres (Vacant, PU, UU) 110.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 Commercial Developable Acres 24.12 Assumed Commercial Density (FAR) 0.5 0.4 0.3 Subtotal: Commercial Capacity (SF) 231,113 Existing Commercial Space (SF) Pending Commercial Space (SF) Master Planned Commercial Space (SF) Subtotal: Net Commercial Capacity (SF) 231,113 Potential Occupied Commercial Space (SF) 219,557 Commercial Employment Capacity 328 Industrial Developable Acres 86.47 Assumed Industrial Density (FAR) Subtotal: Industrial Capacity (SF) 451,991 Existing Industrial Space (SF) 49,472 Pending Industrial Space (SF) Master Planned Industrial Space (SF) Subtotal: Net Industrial Capacity (SF) 402,519 Potential Occupied Industrial Space (SF) 382,393 Industrial Employment Capacity 430 Net Commercial & Industrial Capacity (SF) 633,632 Potential Occupied Commercial & Industrial 601,950 Employment Capacity 758 Remaining Employment Growth to Accommodate (2021-2036) 322 Employment Capacity Surplus (Deficit) 436 Sources: City of Sumas, 2022; Whatcom County, 2021; Community Attributes Inc., 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT BUS GEN LI BUSTO BUS LOW 4.37 86.47 19.75 0.00 4.37 19.75 0.00 0.2 0.2 0.2 41,882 189,231 41,882 189,231 39,788 179,769 59 269 86.47 0.1 451,991 49,472 402,519 382,393 430 41,882 402,519 189,231 39,788 382,393 179,769 59 430 269 PAGE 138 JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 APPENDIX A: ANNEXATIONS Between 2016 and 2021, 445 total acres were annexed to cities in Whatcom County. These annexations increased the total incorporated area in Whatcom County to 35,385 acres (Exhibit 71). These annexations were adopted by the following city legislative actions: • City of Bellingham Ordinances 2018-11-027 and 2018-12-033 • City of Lynden Ordinances 1506, 1509, and 1561 • City of Nooksack Ordinance 712 Exhibit 71. Whatcom County Acres Annexed by City, 2016-2021 ~~;~s 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total Acres Acres Annexed 2021 Bellingham 19,275 0 0 0 249 0 0 249 19,524 Blaine 5,464 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,464 Everson 877 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 877 Ferndale 4,561 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,561 Lynden 3,382 82 0 10 0 0 0 92 3,474 Nooksack 446 0 0 0 104 0 0 104 550 Sumas 935 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 935 Total 34,940 82 0 10 353 0 0 445 35,385 Sources: Whatcom County and Cities, 2022 (Countywide Data Reporting Tool). Notes: Acres 2016 represents acres within city limits as of March 31, 2016. Acres 2021 represents acres within city limits as of March 31, 2021. Numbers have been rounded. For Bellingham, land area excluding Bellingham Bay, Lake Whatcom, and Lake Padden is equal to 18,046 acres. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 PAGE 139 APPENDIX B: URBAN GROWTH AREA CHANGES Between 2016 and 2021, 345 acres were added to Whatcom County's urban growth areas. UGAs include areas within the city limits and unincorporated areas that have been designated for urban growth. UGA changes authorized by Whatcom County Ordinance 2016-034 include a reduction of 20 acres in the Everson UGA, as well as increases in the Ferndale, Lynden, and Nooksack UGAs. Overall, as of March 31, 2021, Whatcom County's UGAs total 52,029 acres (Exhibit 72). Exhibit 72. Whatcom County Acres Added to Urban Growth Areas, 2016- 2021 Acres 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total Acres Acres 2016 Added to UGAs 2021 Bellingham 23,172 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23,172 Birch Bay 3,607 0 0 () 0 () () 0 3,607 Blaine 4,071 () () () 0 0 0 0 4,071 Cherry Point 7,035 0 () C) () 0 () 0 7,035 Columbia Valley 1,157 () 0 0 0 0 0 0 l, 157 Everson 1,287 (20) 0 0 () 0 0 (20) 1,267 Ferndale 5,869 117 0 0 0 0 0 117 5,986 Lynden 3,979 193 0 () () 0 () 193 4,172 Nooksack 548 55 0 () 0 () 0 55 603 Sumas 959 0 0 0 0 C) C) 0 959 Total 51,684 345 0 0 0 0 0 345 52,029 Sources: Whatcom County and Cities, 2022 (Countywide Data Reporting Tool). Notes: Acres 2016 represents acres within each UGA as of March 31, 2016. Acres 2021 represents acres within each UGA as of March 31, 2021. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 PAGE 140 APPENDIX C: ZONING MAP CHANGES Zoning map changes documented in Exhibit 73 and Exhibit 74 provide a detailed accounting of changes to zoning within each UGA for residential, commercial, industrial, and other types of zones between 2016 and 2021. Many of the general land use categories encompass a number of zoning districts. In 2016, land was added to some UGAs or moved between UGAs. This land has not been rezoned and therefore these changes are reflected in Exhibit 72, but not in the zoning map changes. Ordinances authorizing zoning changes from one land use category to another between April 1, 2016 and March 31, 2021: • Bellingham UGA o City of Bellingham Ordinance 2017-07-018 rezoned 0.51 acres from Residential -Single Family to Commercial. o City of Bellingham Ordinance 2017-07-019 rezoned 10 acres from Residential -Single Family to Industrial. o City of Bellingham Ordinance 2017-07-020 rezoned 3.6 acres from Industrial to public and 17. 7 acres of Commercial/ Industrial/ Residential Multifamily to Public. o City of Bellingham Ordinance 2017-11-025 rezoned 12.7 acres from Commercial to Institutional. • Everson UGA o City of Everson zoning changes in 2016 were part of the 2016 Comprehensive Plan update, adopted through Ordinance 767- 16. o City of Everson zoning changes in 2019 were adopted through Ordinance 806-19. • Ferndale UGA o Ferndale Ordinance 1957 (2016) -Rezoned 0.75 acres from Residential -Single Family to Residential -Multifamily. o Ferndale Ordinance 1977 (2016) -Rezoned 6.78 acres from Residential -Single Family to Commercial. o Ferndale Ordinance 2080 (2019) -Rezoned 112 acres from Floodplain to Public (3.9 acres), Residential -Single Family (8.51 acres), Residential -Multifamily (48.62 acres), and Commercial (52.14 acres). Rezoned 18.92 acres from Commercial to Residential -Multifamily and 4.45 acres from Commercial to Residential -Single Family. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 PAGE 141 o Ferndale Ordinance 2160 (2020) -Rezoned 2.71 acres from Residential -Single Family to Residential -Multifamily, and 3.8 acres from Residential -Multifamily to Commercial. • Lynden UGA o Lynden Ordinances 1506 and 1509 (2016) -Annexed 82 acres and rezoned to Residential. o Lynden Ordinance1519 (2016) -Rezoned 7 acres from Commercial to Industrial, 1 acre from Residential to Commercial, and 5 acres from Residential to Public Use. o Lynden Ordinance 1548 (2017) -Rezoned 27 acres from Commercial to Residential. o Lynden Ordinance 1569 (2018) -Rezoned 16 acres from Residential to Commercial (6 acres), Industrial (8 acres), and Public Use (2 acres). This Ordinance also rezoned 9 acres from Commercial to Industrial. o Lynden Ordinance 1561 (2018) -Annexed 10 acres and rezoned to Residential. o Lynden Ordinance 1597 (2019) -Rezoned 1 acre from Single Family Residential to Multifamily Residential. o Lynden Ordinance 1619 (2020)-Rezoned 83 acres from Single Family Residential to Multifamily Residential (80 acres) and Public Use (3 acres) in the Pepin Creek Subarea. • Nooksack UGA o City of Nooksack Ordinance 712 rezoned 31 acres of a 104 acre annexation area from Residential to Public zoning. • Sumas UGA o City of Sumas Ordinance No. 1685 adopted zoning changes from the 2016 Comprehensive Plan update. • Areas Outside UGAs o Whatcom County Ordinance 2016-036 rezoned 2 acres of Rural one dwelling per five acres to Rural-Industrial. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 PAGE 142 Exhibit 73. Whatcom County Zoning Changes by Urban Growth Area and Land Use, Acres, 2016-2021 City County Zoning Total Zoning UGA Zoning Zoning 2016 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Changes 2016 2016 Bellingham Residential -Single Family 7,868 2,205 10,073 0 (11) 0 0 0 0 (11) Residential -Multifamily 3,209 46 3,255 (J 0 (J () Cl Cl 0 Commercial 1,847 314 2,161 0 (12) Cl Cl (] 0 (12) Industrial 2,434 2,486 4,919 () 6 () () 0 () 6 Other 2,444 139 2,583 0 16 () () 0 () 16 Subtotal 17,802 5,190 22,992 0 0 0 () 0 0 0 Birch Bay Residential -Single Family 0 1,728 1,728 () () 0 () Cl () 0 Residential -Multifamily 0 1,281 1,281 () Cl () Cl () () 0 Commercial 0 551 551 () 0 () () () () 0 Industrial 0 0 0 0 0 0 () () () 0 Other 0 0 0 0 (' ,J () () () () 0 Subtotal 0 3,560 3,560 0 ;\ V 0 (' J (' ,J 0 Blaine Residential -Single Family 2,505 494 2,999 () ,, l; 0 () () () () Residential Multifamily 262 0 262 () 0 n 0 () 0 0 i.) Commercial 347 0 347 0 () () () () 0 0 Industrial 287 0 287 () () 0 CJ 0 0 0 Other 144 0 144 () 0 () () 0 0 0 Subtotal 3,545 494 4,039 0 0 0 (1 u CJ 0 0 Cherry Point Industrial 0 7,029 7,029 () 0 () () 0 () 0 Subtotal 0 7,029 7,029 r, f' () 0 n r, 0 \J ,J u '.J Columbia Valley Residential -Single Family 0 1,065 1,065 0 () 0 Cl 0 Cl 0 Residential -Multifamily 0 0 0 0 Cl 0 0 0 0 0 Commercial 0 40 40 0 0 0 () (] 0 0 Industrial 0 0 0 (] 0 0 0 ,,, l; () 0 Other 0 40 40 () () (] 0 0 (] 0 Subtotal 0 I, 145 I, 145 0 0 0 0 0 {' ,; 0 Everson Residential -Single Family 421 108 529 (60) 0 0 (1) () Cl (61) Residential -Multifamily 124 0 124 Cl () 0 4 l) 0 4 Commercial 47 7 54 10 0 () (1) () 0 9 Industrial 173 42 215 (26) () () 0 () () (26) Other 116 251 367 76 () 0 (2) () () 74 Subtotal 881 408 1,289 0 0 CJ 0 n 0 0 V Sources: Whatcom County and Cities, 2022 (Countywide Data Reporting Tool). Notes: Acres 2016 represents acres as of March 31, 2016. Acres 2021 represents acres as of March 31, 2021. Numbers may not add up because of rounding. WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 PAGE 143 Zoning 2021 10,062 3,255 2,149 4,926 2,600 22,992 1,728 1,281 551 0 0 3,560 2,999 262 347 287 144 4,039 7,029 7,029 1,065 0 40 0 40 I, 145 468 128 63 189 441 1,289 Exhibit 74. Whatcom County Zoning Changes by Urban Growth Area and Land Use, Acres, 2016-2021 City County Zoning Total Zoning UGA Zoning Zoning 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2016 2016 2016 Changes Ferndale Residential -Single Family 1,580 1,599 3,179 (8) 0 0 13 (3) 0 3 Residential -Multifamily 485 0 485 l 0 0 63 (l) () 63 Commercial 1,628 31 1,659 7 () () 33 4 () 44 Industrial 516 415 931 0 0 0 0 () () 0 Other 112 89 201 0 () () (109) () (J (109) Subtotal 4,321 2,134 6,455 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lynden Residential -Single Family 1,854 135 1,989 76 7 (6) (l) (83) 0 (7) Residential -Multifamily 442 23 465 0 20 CJ 80 0 101 Commercial 479 0 479 (6) (27) (3) () 0 C) (36) Industrial 337 0 337 7 0 17 0 0 Cl 24 Other 189 446 635 (77) 0 (8) 0 3 () (82) Subtotal 3,300 604 3,904 0 0 0 0 () 0 0 Nooksack Residential -Single Family 350 95 445 () () () (31) 0 0 (31) Residential -Multifamily 0 0 0 Cl 0 0 0 () () 0 Commercial 35 0 35 () 0 Cl (l () 0 0 Industrial 13 0 13 0 0 () CJ 0 'i ,, 0 Other 45 ll 56 0 () (, 31 0 0 31 Subtotal 443 106 549 0 () 0 () () () 0 Sumas Residential -Single Family 160 0 160 (4) () () () () () (4) Residential -Multifamily 193 0 193 (16) (\ ,; CJ () () CJ (16) Commercial 71 0 71 (l) 0 () Cl 0 Cl (l) Industrial 376 0 376 8 0 Cl 0 () 0 8 Other 135 26 161 13 () CJ () () Cl 13 Subtotal 935 26 961 () 0 0 0 0 0 0 Areas Outside UGAs Rural one dwelling/two acres N/A l, 157 l, 157 () () () 0 0 0 0 Rural one dwelling/five acres N/A 90,331 90,331 (2) () 0 0 0 0 (2) Rural one dwelling/ten acres N/A 30,21 l 30,211 () () Cl 0 () 0 0 Rural Residential (LAMI RD) N/A 10,634 10,634 0 0 Cl () 0 0 0 Rural-Commercial (LAM I RD) N/A 1,286 1,286 0 () Cl () 0 0 0 Rural -Industrial (LAM I RD) N/A 494 494 2 () () 0 () 0 2 Agriculture N/A 86,276 86,276 0 Cl () () () () 0 Rural Forestry N/A 36,208 36,208 () () () CJ CJ () 0 Commercial Forestry N/A 187,31 l 187,31 l () () () 0 () () 0 Mineral Resource Lands N/A 0 0 () () 0 () CJ () 0 Subtotal NIA 443,908 443,908 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 31,227 464,604 495,831 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sources: Whatcom County and Cities, 2022 (Countywide Data Reporting Tool). Notes: Acres 2016 represents acres as of March 31, 2016. Acres 2021 represents acres as of March 31, 2021. LAM/RD stands for "limited area of more intensive rural development" (see RCW 36. 70A.070(5)(d)). WHATCOM COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT JULY 2022, REVISED FEB 2023 PAGE 144 Zoning 2021 3,182 548 1,703 931 92 6,455 1,982 566 443 361 553 3,904 414 0 35 13 87 549 156 177 70 384 174 961 l, 157 90,329 30,211 10,634 1,286 496 86,276 36,208 187,31 l 0 443,908 495,831